I hadn’t been aware of the significance of the number of (temporary) “holdouts”, so thanks for that, Chris. I’m sure you’re completely correct that it was meant as a warning.
Yes, Johnson’s the Speaker, but WOW what a precarious speakership it will be! House Republicans can say whatever they want about a “conservative agenda” (not that MAGA is even *remotely* “conservative” in real terms), but legislation in the House will go through Hakeem Jeffries. Period.
Congratulations to the lying, sniveling fake & lying Christian who keeps insisting the driver of the truck in New Orleans was an immigrant. HE WAS AN AMERICAN. But why let the truth get in the way of stoking MAGA hate for immigrants.
Cmon man! He was voted in! Victory! House GOP controlled. Johnson Speaker, let’s move on. Senate GOP controlled. Thune running the show, let’s move on. Trump #47 takes office 1/20. MAGA
I think the main (not to say the only) reason DJT supported him was to ensure the certification on J6. I suspect that as soon as that is done or not long thereafter DJT will stick a knife in his back.
Trump says “unprecedented win by Johnson” - yeah, getting by by the skin of his teeth. Curious minds want to know exactly what he promised Cloud and Norman. Because you know if they were willing to brave trump’s wrath, they didn’t just change their vote to be nice guys. Or maybe the wrath descended. I can see Johnson turning over his phone - “hey, someone from Florida wants to talk to you.”
So, if they oust Mike Johnson, who would/could garner enough votes to be the next Speaker? The Dems aren't likely to vote for any GOP candidate, and the split in the GOP between the "Freedom Carcass, oops Caucus" and non-MAGA branch makes it seem unlikely anyone could get a majority. Maybe Donald Trump will take charge and appoint a Speaker of the House by Executive Order...
I wouldn't call it a victory for Johnson. It was avoiding a loss. He managed to show in one ballot what it took Kevin McCarthy 15: he's weak, not a leader.
All of this was good analysis, except for one point. You said that it is unfair that Johnson bears the brunt of the criticism for not being able to navigate the House GOP Caucus to successful outcomes -- that is literally the job description. It is a job he sought and won. He just isn't very good at it. He absolutely deserves a healthy dose of blame.
He has consistently chosen bizarre legislative "strategies" to appease his right flank. He declares a course of action, and then goes back on it. He makes declarations that he can't deliver. But, aside from that, he also has not shown the least bit of actual leadership. He stumbles from crisis to crisis without setting a clear direction. He refuses to impose any discipline. He chose to hamstring himself on earmarks, so he gave up both a stick and a carrot that Speakers have used over the decades to twist arms, help grease tough votes, and give themselves leverage. By all accounts he just listens to everyone, and says nothing, and legislators leave his office thinking he has agreed to things that he hasn't, or at the least having no idea where things stand after the meeting than they did beforehand.
He needs to remove this sword of Damocles from above his head permanently. He can't keep running to a mercurial Trump at the 11th Hour every time he needs to sway legislators. You do this by cracking some political skulls. Not this nonsense primary threat stuff that pisses off all incumbent Members. The GOP hardliners are not worried about a challenge from their right anyway. He should lay down the law. Not voting for a rule gets punishment -- no earmarks, and losing committee seats. Instead of all his mealy-mouth statements of confidence in hopeless plans, set appropriate expectations. Say in public that the margins are thin, and not everyone will get everything they want. Say publicly that half a loaf is better than no loaf, and progress is incremental. That means that there cannot be 219 different "red-lines" when it comes to passing bills. In the Senate, they will often need some Democrats, so that has to be a realistic consideration for the House when drafting legislation. Portray the absolutist/purist wing as a chaos wing.
But, before then, when this Speaker vote came up, he should have pulled the 9 no-votes into a room, and told them that he was going to stand for one vote for Speaker. If it went down, he would withdraw his name from consideration, and march right out to the media and name each of them by name as rejecting Trump's choice and the GOP Caucus consensus, so it would now be up to them to find a candidate who can win near universal acclaim. Everyone knew that all the objections were about leverage and concessions, and embarrassing Johnson. So -- take the leverage away.
That would be a start at leadership, and it would make Johnson a stronger Speaker. At the very least, maybe he'd earn some respect for himself in the caucus and when looking in the mirror.
The only possible silver lining in a Mike Johnson Speakership, brief and tenuous as it may be, is that he and Hakeem Jeffries have a decent relationship and trust each other. That will likely be helpful when Johnson knows he has to pass certain things and needs Dem help.
The "Freedom Caucus" grandstanders will be a proverbial Sword of Damacles hanging over EVERY WORD Speaker Johnson says, never mind his actions. And in the background, Trump will be looming, like an ominous shadow, ready to send his foil into darkness. Poor Speaker Johnson has zero chance of remaining on the job for even 6 months.
I hadn’t been aware of the significance of the number of (temporary) “holdouts”, so thanks for that, Chris. I’m sure you’re completely correct that it was meant as a warning.
Yes, Johnson’s the Speaker, but WOW what a precarious speakership it will be! House Republicans can say whatever they want about a “conservative agenda” (not that MAGA is even *remotely* “conservative” in real terms), but legislation in the House will go through Hakeem Jeffries. Period.
If you didn't see Pete Aguilar's speech nominating Jeffries you should watch it. He made it very clear who the adults in the room are.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=spuT9FeO8JA
Thanks, Daniel!
Congratulations to the lying, sniveling fake & lying Christian who keeps insisting the driver of the truck in New Orleans was an immigrant. HE WAS AN AMERICAN. But why let the truth get in the way of stoking MAGA hate for immigrants.
He was an adherent to an extremist ideology and a terrorist.
"Don't realize or don't care" is the reality in the Republican House. They do neither. The country will suffer from it. I put my hope in Jeffries.
Cmon man! He was voted in! Victory! House GOP controlled. Johnson Speaker, let’s move on. Senate GOP controlled. Thune running the show, let’s move on. Trump #47 takes office 1/20. MAGA
You’re back! Yay!
I think the main (not to say the only) reason DJT supported him was to ensure the certification on J6. I suspect that as soon as that is done or not long thereafter DJT will stick a knife in his back.
Trump says “unprecedented win by Johnson” - yeah, getting by by the skin of his teeth. Curious minds want to know exactly what he promised Cloud and Norman. Because you know if they were willing to brave trump’s wrath, they didn’t just change their vote to be nice guys. Or maybe the wrath descended. I can see Johnson turning over his phone - “hey, someone from Florida wants to talk to you.”
Almost certainly!
The whole thing makes me sick.
So, if they oust Mike Johnson, who would/could garner enough votes to be the next Speaker? The Dems aren't likely to vote for any GOP candidate, and the split in the GOP between the "Freedom Carcass, oops Caucus" and non-MAGA branch makes it seem unlikely anyone could get a majority. Maybe Donald Trump will take charge and appoint a Speaker of the House by Executive Order...
Promises were made, deals were cut, and if they don’t pan out, Johnson is toast.
I wouldn't call it a victory for Johnson. It was avoiding a loss. He managed to show in one ballot what it took Kevin McCarthy 15: he's weak, not a leader.
All of this was good analysis, except for one point. You said that it is unfair that Johnson bears the brunt of the criticism for not being able to navigate the House GOP Caucus to successful outcomes -- that is literally the job description. It is a job he sought and won. He just isn't very good at it. He absolutely deserves a healthy dose of blame.
He has consistently chosen bizarre legislative "strategies" to appease his right flank. He declares a course of action, and then goes back on it. He makes declarations that he can't deliver. But, aside from that, he also has not shown the least bit of actual leadership. He stumbles from crisis to crisis without setting a clear direction. He refuses to impose any discipline. He chose to hamstring himself on earmarks, so he gave up both a stick and a carrot that Speakers have used over the decades to twist arms, help grease tough votes, and give themselves leverage. By all accounts he just listens to everyone, and says nothing, and legislators leave his office thinking he has agreed to things that he hasn't, or at the least having no idea where things stand after the meeting than they did beforehand.
He needs to remove this sword of Damocles from above his head permanently. He can't keep running to a mercurial Trump at the 11th Hour every time he needs to sway legislators. You do this by cracking some political skulls. Not this nonsense primary threat stuff that pisses off all incumbent Members. The GOP hardliners are not worried about a challenge from their right anyway. He should lay down the law. Not voting for a rule gets punishment -- no earmarks, and losing committee seats. Instead of all his mealy-mouth statements of confidence in hopeless plans, set appropriate expectations. Say in public that the margins are thin, and not everyone will get everything they want. Say publicly that half a loaf is better than no loaf, and progress is incremental. That means that there cannot be 219 different "red-lines" when it comes to passing bills. In the Senate, they will often need some Democrats, so that has to be a realistic consideration for the House when drafting legislation. Portray the absolutist/purist wing as a chaos wing.
But, before then, when this Speaker vote came up, he should have pulled the 9 no-votes into a room, and told them that he was going to stand for one vote for Speaker. If it went down, he would withdraw his name from consideration, and march right out to the media and name each of them by name as rejecting Trump's choice and the GOP Caucus consensus, so it would now be up to them to find a candidate who can win near universal acclaim. Everyone knew that all the objections were about leverage and concessions, and embarrassing Johnson. So -- take the leverage away.
That would be a start at leadership, and it would make Johnson a stronger Speaker. At the very least, maybe he'd earn some respect for himself in the caucus and when looking in the mirror.
The only possible silver lining in a Mike Johnson Speakership, brief and tenuous as it may be, is that he and Hakeem Jeffries have a decent relationship and trust each other. That will likely be helpful when Johnson knows he has to pass certain things and needs Dem help.
Almost inevitable. As predicted.
A great analysis.
The "Freedom Caucus" grandstanders will be a proverbial Sword of Damacles hanging over EVERY WORD Speaker Johnson says, never mind his actions. And in the background, Trump will be looming, like an ominous shadow, ready to send his foil into darkness. Poor Speaker Johnson has zero chance of remaining on the job for even 6 months.