Mike Pompeo is the canary in the 2024 coal mine
Why him not running matters.
No one wanted to run for president in 2024 more than Mike Pompeo did.
Pompeo had a super PAC way back in 2021 aimed at getting the pieces in place to run. He was traveling to Iowa and New Hampshire before the 2022 election was even finished. He lost a bunch of weight! He was all in.
And then — on Friday afternoon — Pompeo announced he wasn’t going to run after all. Here’s the key part of his statement:
I have made a decision. [We] have prayerfully come to the conclusion we are not going to join the race in 2024. While we care deeply about America and the issues I've been talking about for the past year-and-half – and frankly for decades – matter an awful lot, this isn't our moment.
Which, surprising! Or maybe not.
Consider this part of Pompeo’s statement: “This isn’t our moment.”
That implies it is someone’s moment. But whose? That answer is easy: Donald J. Trump.
The story of the last few months of the 2024 race has been the consolidation of support behind the former president.
Trump’s average lead in national polling on the 2024 Republican race is nearing 30 points. The last 5 polls have the former president leading by 37, 33, 33, 31 and 24 points. Trump is now averaging more than 52% of the vote in a crowded field.
Now, back to Pompeo for a minute. Remember that he REALLY wanted to run for president in 2024.
But, he’s also not an idiot. He sees his little pink line in the chart above — showing that his average support is, roughly 50 points behind Trump’s. And that the closest Tump competitor — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis — is dropping like a rock as Trump attacks him.
And Pompeo concludes that the Republican nomination is Trump’s to lose — and that he’s very unlikely to lose it.
It’s not that Pompeo doesn’t want to run for president — or won’t run in the future. He said as much in his statement on not running. After noting that he’s only 59 years old, Pompeo added this: “There remain many more opportunities for which the timing might be more fitting as presidential leadership becomes even more necessary.”1
It’s right, I think, to see Pompeo as a canary in the Republican 2024 coal mine then.
Pompeo still wants to be president. And, he wants to be president so bad that in his statement announcing he’s not running, he makes clear that he’s going to run in the future.
But, what Pompeo knows is that, more and more, this race is Donald Trump’s. He remains the biggest star in the Republican firmament — and the prime mover on all things GOP.
Consider what’s changed since Pompeo started to explore a presidential bid:
It wasn’t clear then that Trump was even going to run.
It wasn’t clear that Republicans would not blame Trump for the party’s disappointing 2022 election results
Trump’s indictment on paying hush money to a porn star was only a twinkle in Democrats’ eye
That trio of events have now all come to pass. And each one — somewhat amazingly- - has worked to Trump’s benefit.2
What Pompeo was doing then was waiting and seeing. A race without Trump — or with a severely weakened Trump — would clearly be one that he would get into.
But, that’s not the race that Pompeo found staring him in the face. Trump is stronger than even he likely believed he would be at this point and the race looks like a fool’s errand for anyone who a) doesn’t have age/time constraints ala Mike Pence or b) isn’t running to be vice president ala Tim Scott.
That Pompeo is passing on the 2024 race is a telling indicator of what a cold-blooded analysis of the race actually looks like. At this point, it looks like Trump is the very likely nominee — so why spend the next year banging your head into a wall while the former president rolls to the nomination?
Pompeo’s exit proves one thing: He at least believes the Republican nomination fight is all but over.
AKA I am running in 2028
That includes Trump’s indictment, which has clearly helped him to rally the Republican base behind his candidacy.
I’m kind of surprised that so many commentators are already declaring the Republican nomination race over. There is a lot of time left and a lot of that time seems likely to be filled with more and more seriously indictments of Trump and others in his senior circle.
Trump is increasingly unhinged and the stress of actually being held accountable for the first time in his life is likely to have significant consequences, person and political.
He could break down mentally, physically, and/or emotionally.
He could be found to have done something really really seditious.
With Trump, things will always sooner or later go sideways. Which is why some smart or at least opportunistic Republican(s) would do well to keep their sneakers handy.
Pompeo seems like a truly horrible person. He won’t be missed. Mostly because it’s truly horrible people all the way down.