Mitch McConnell's big 2024 surprise

Pennsylvania!

(The 2024 map/Center for Politics at UVA)

My NEW book is out! You can buy it here!

I have made it a habit over my two decades covering elections to listen when Mitch McConnell talks.

Whatever you think of the Senate Republican leader — and I know plenty of people who loathe him and plenty who love him — the guy is, without question, one of the smartest political strategists in either party.

Doubt it? Look at what McConnell said about the 2022 election. He was early on the fact that Republicans had candidate problems — and was proven right when weak candidates lost in Georgia, New Hampshire and Arizona.

Which brings me to McConnell’s new interview with CNN’s Manu Raju in which, among other things, the Kentucky Republican reveals his list of the most endangered Democratic seats.

“As of right now the day that you and I are talking, I think we know that we are going to compete in four places heavily, and that would be Montana, West Virginia, Ohio and Pennsylvania,” McConnell told Manu.

Which, interesting!

The first three states McConnell lists above make perfect sense — and are widely regarded as the trio of best pickup opportunities for Republicans in 2024. In each, Donald Trump beat Joe Biden — handily.¹

So, no big deal there. But, it’s the fourth race in McConnell’s list — Pennsylvania! — that’s the real news here.

Prior to McConnell’s comments, I regarded Pennsylvania as a decidedly 2nd-tier pickup opportunity for Republicans.

Yes, the state is extremely competitive at the presidential level — and is expected to be one of a handful of the swingiest states in 2024.

But, Sen. Bob Casey Jr. is also a proven commodity in the state. He won his 2018 race by 13 points — a massive margin in a state as competitive as Pennsylvania — and took 54% and 59% in his two previous races for the Senate seat.

Casey is also the son of former Pennsylvania Gov. Bob Casey Sr., a popular political figure in the state.

Then there’s the sticky situation currently playing out on the Republican side.

McConnell is heavily invested in recruiting wealthy businessman Dave McCormick, who finished 2nd in the 2022 Republican primary, to run again.

And McCormick sounds like he is interested. “I’m terribly worried about the direction of the country,” McCormick said recently. “I want to try to find a way to serve. Not sure if running for the Senate is a way to do it. We’re praying and thinking about it as a family but I’m certainly considering it.”

The problem for McCormick (and McConnell) is that 2022 gubernatorial nominee Doug Mastriano is also considering running. (Mastriano has said he has already made up his mind but has not revealed it publicly.)

A Mastriano bid would be a nightmare for McConnell. Mastriano is one of Trump’s most ardent election deniers² and was absolutely blown out in the governor’s race after running a campaign in which he seemed to have zero interest in reaching any voter outside of the hardcore Republican base.

Given all of that drama, it seems odd that McConnell would list Pennsylvania as one of his top pickup priorities. Unless, of course, McConnell knows something we don’t — like that Mastriano isn’t going to run and McCormick is.

Which would be a HUGE positive development for Senate Republicans with an eye on winning back the majority in the chamber next November.

While the Pennsylvania mention in McConnell’s top 4 is the big news out of Manu’s interview, it’s also worth looking at the races where he is quite clearly more skeptical about GOP chances.

At the top of that list is Arizona where Sen. Kyrsten Sinema, an independent, has yet to announce whether she will run again in 2024.

McConnell told Manu that there is a “high likelihood” that the party will avoid deciding whether to seriously contest the race until they see the results of the GOP primary.

Which is shorthand for: We want to see whether a) 2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake runs and b) if she wins the primary.

Lake is reportedly getting closer to announcing a Senate bid — a decision that, reading between the lines, McConnell thinks would badly hamstring the party’s chances of winning the seat next fall.

Lake, like Mastriano, has been an ardent defender of Trump’s election falsehoods. And Lake herself has refused to admit she lost the 2022 governor’s race — continuing to insist that she will somehow be installed as the winner even after legal challenge after legal challenge is dismissed.

McConnell’s view of Nevada seems similar. As Manu writes of the race: “[McConnell] expects to likely wait until after next year’s primary to decide whether to invest resources there.”

Again, this is a tacit acknowledgment by McConnell that they have a looming candidate problem in the Silver State. Jim Marchant, an election denier who lost a bid for Nevada Secretary of State in 2022, recently entered the race and could be formidable in a Republican primary where Trump (and his election denialism) remains quite popular.³

If Marchant is the nominee, McConnell seems to suggest that Democratic Sen. Jacky Rosen could well get a pass. If Republicans can find a more palatable alternative, the party might engage next year. (At the moment, Marchant is the only announced candidate.)

It’s also worth noting that McConnell makes ZERO mention of the open Michigan Senate race in his assessment of the 2024 playing field — a seeming admission that Rep. Elissa Slotkin is the heavy favorite not just for the Democratic nomination but to be the next Senator from Michigan, replacing retiring Sen. Debbie Stabenow.

Look. Some of McConnell’s list of most competitive Democratic-held seats may well be wish-casting. Pennsylvania, at least at the moment, is not in the same place in terms of raw competitiveness, that West Virginia, Montana and Ohio are.

But, I’ve learned over the years that you ignore McConnell at your own peril. If he lists Pennsylvania as one of the four most competitive states on the map — and a place where Republicans are planning to spend heavily — we all need to reconsider how we have been analyzing that race to date.

1. West Virginia, Montana and Ohio are the three seats most likely to switch parties in my latest Senate rankings.

2. It’s not clear, however, that Trump would be supportive of Mastriano Senate bid. According to POLITICO, Trump is worried that Mastriano as the Senate nominee could hurt his chances of winning the Keystone State at the presidential level.

3. Trump endorsed Marchant in the Secretary of State race.