Nikki Haley is why Republicans (still) can't beat Donald Trump

Wishy. Also, washy.

(Nikki Haley and Donald Trump)

Nikki Haley can’t decide what she thinks about Donald Trump’s recent indictment over his retention of classified documents.

When news of the indictment first broke, she was decidedly pro-Trump.

“This is not how justice should be pursued in our country,” she tweeted. “The American people are exhausted by the prosecutorial overreach, double standards, and vendetta politics. It’s time to move beyond the endless drama and distractions.”

Which, ok. That is an approach!

Then, things changed. On Monday, in an interview with Fox News, Haley seemed much more willing to go on the attack against Trump.

“If this indictment is true…President Trump was incredibly reckless with our national security,” she said. “This puts all of our military men and women in danger.”

Different!

Then, things changed — again. On Tuesday, Haley said that she would “be inclined in favor of a pardon” of Trump if she is elected president.

So…….um, what?

Haley’s three positions on Trump’s legal issues — in the space of less than a week! — speak to the struggles the former president’s rivals are having running against him.

At the heart of that struggle are two competing arguments about the way the race plays out.

Let’s go through each of them.

Argument #1: Donald Trump is never going to leave the Republican primary race (He’s said so himself.). He has a massive lead over all of his rivals for the nomination.

Given those two realities, the only way to beat Trump is to run through him. You have to go directly at him — challenging him on anything and everything. You have to find multiple ways to peel off votes from him. That is going to be an arduous and ugly process but it is the only way to win. If you can’t fundamentally disqualify Trump in the eyes of Republican primary voters, you will lose.

Argument #2: Trump can’t withstand the amount of legal attention he is getting. He has already been indicted twice. There’s the very real possibility he is indicted again later this summer in Georgia for his role in trying to overturn the election results there in 2020.

He hasn’t collapsed yet but his collapse is inevitable. And, when it comes, the entire game will be to see who can hoover up his past supporters. You can’t do that if you have been crushing Trump on the regular.

So, the best approach is to either ignore him or treat him with kid gloves in hopes of not alienating his supporters — supporters you desperately need once Trump exits the race.

These two arguments are in direct opposition to one another. And yet, it appears that most of the Republican field — with Chris Christie and Asa Hutchinson as notable exceptions — is trying to execute against both propositions at the same time.

Think of it like tennis. There are two basic spots you can — or at least should — be in on the court: At the baseline or at the net.

The one place you should NEVER be is in between the baseline and the net — because balls are constantly landing directly at your feet. It’s literally called no man’s land in tennis jargon.

I just don’t think you can be half in on your strategy to beat Donald Trump. Half measures don’t beat a guy like him — particularly not one with a giant polling lead and a rock solid 35%-40% of the Republican electorate behind him.

Either you think he’s in the race to stay or he’s going to get out. Whichever you believe, you need to stick to that line of logic all the way. You can’t keep hopping in and out like Haley is doing because, in the end, that will piss off everyone you are trying to win over.

For my money, I think the first argument is 1000x more likely than the 2nd one to come to pass. I see nothing in Trump’s past that suggests he will ever get out — and being in the presidential race probably helps him in terms of raising the bar on a conviction (and prison time).

To date, no one aside from Christie or Hutchinson — both of whom are minor players in the race as of right now — have levied any sort of sustained attack on Trump. The second tier candidates — Haley, Tim Scott, Ron DeSantis — all seem caught betwixt and between, unsure how to solve a problem like Trump.

The longer they wait to pick a side — or an argument — the better for Trump. He is stronger today in the race than he was six months ago. And if Haley and the rest can’t decide how to approach his candidacy — and soon — the race for the Republican nomination may well be over before it ever really started.