It's darn near impossible. As JVL of The Bulwark puts it (essentially) , "Donald Trump is the greatest president ever. I agree with all of his policies. He is the true winner of the 2020 election which was stolen from him. Now, Biden, the Democrats, and George Soros are railroading him in another witch hunt because they're afraid of him. So vote for me?"
I can’t imagine why anyone would give money to Haley’s campaign. I could say that about a number of them. Haley would vote for him if he’s the nominee. And if he gets elected and decides dictatorship is a good future for our country, Nikki and the rest of the Republicans would be cool with that, too.
On the subject of giving money, I have to share because I love this so much. My rep, Elise Stefanik 🤮, has up an “Official Trump Defense Fund.” It has the usual Republican “uncheck or else your donations recur” option. But, the best part is that unless you click through and change the allocation 99% goes to her and 1% to Trump. 🤣
I hate to be cynical, but a cynic might think the only reason she’s out defending him is so she can run this scam. Priorities: Money, Trump, national security. In that order.
You’ve laid out the options quite succinctly, Chris.
I think the fundamental issue for the non-Trump candidates is this fear of alienating his core supporters, which is in the range of 40% of Republicans, give or take on a given day. I think the fundamental flaw in their thinking, which leads to their “betwixt and between” strategy, is that they CAN keep his followers yet still beat him. I think this is folly!
I think it’s clear, especially given his increased support AFTER his indictments, is that NOTHING will loosen his grip on the Trump Cult Members! They’re with him literally until the moment he dies, and probably well after! “Shoot someone on 5th Avenue...” etc.
The only strategic path I see is to forgo trying to keep them and continue to tack toward the Center, toward the few reasonable Republicans left, and the independents and undecided. Nothing else will work in the General.
Will that win them the nomination? Hell if I know! But this half-a$$ed avoiding the elephant in the room clearly isn’t working either!
Larry, I think you may be right. It's why I am VERY skeptical that a conviction or even prison time will break the lock Trump has on his supporters. If anything, I think it may cause them to double and triple down on their support of him!
Nikki Haley is not qualified for any elective office period. Any candidate who cannot see the treasonous criminality outlined in the Trump indictment and blames prosecution on “weaponization “ of the DOJ, fails to understand the rule of law should just take themselves out of the race before the voters do.
I agree. But I think Haley can see it, she just doesn't have the backbone to confront it.
From Chris's spot-on analysis, it is obvious that the current slate (sans Christie and Asa) shouldn't be president since they aren't hungry enough to do what is needed to win the office.
It's (almost) sad to hear Republicans twist and squirm when talking about trump. But then I remind myself how they would be frothing at the mouth if it was a Dem in his position. F-ing hypocrites.
When Kobe Bryant wasn’t sure if the 2008 US Men’s team was going to take things seriously enough at the Olympics, he told them all, “On the first play of the game, I’m going to run through Pau Gasol’s fluffing chest.” He knew what the Spanish team was going to run, he knew Gasol would be the last screen, and he told them all he was going to go right through him.
LeBron and the others were like, “what? You’re not going to do that. That’s your Lakers teammate, that’s your guy. Whatever...”
And then on the first play, he did exactly what he said was going to do. Even though Gasol had inches and about fifty pounds on him, he sent him flying hard enough that, if you look at the video, he’s standing next to the free throw line when Kobe runs into him and doesn’t stop sliding until his whole body is outside of the three point line.
The rest of the guys went “holy s***,” and then immediately realized there was no way they were losing this game.
Trump is Gasol. He’s big and soft. Some other Republican needs to put on their big boy pants and decide to be Kobe.
I am intrigued to see if any one does. Christie is gearing up to be that guy but he is so un-trusted by the Republican electorate that I am not at all sure he can pull it off.
I agree that Trump staying in the Presidential race may help him raise some money and may also save him him jail time., but not from conviction. He is going to be convicted in one or all of the charges that have been and would be brought against him.Biden would pardon him in 2025, yes in 2025 after most or all of the cases have been resolved.
I think Nikki Haley changed her mind after reading the indictment and realizing how badly Trump acted in handling the classified documents and deliberately obstructing justice.. After all her Husband is in the Military
Good Reason for pardoning him would be out of respect for the office of Presidency . And I totally agree with the condition that he would never run for a political office again
I would bet my bottom dollar that Trump will be able to stall the trials until after the election is over, and that if he does win, he will spike the football, pardon himself, and never set foot in Georgia to avoid Fani Willis and the repercussions there (that is unless the new rules letting the GA legislature allow the cowardly R's in GA to remove prosecutors because they are D's or mean to their Republican fee fees
I would submit that the Republican Presidential nomination race is already over and for those Democrats who are gleeful about getting another shot at Trump, I say, "Be careful what you wish for."
I don’t think there are any easy answers to who would be best for Biden to run against. The battle (per Chris’ column on Trump’s health) needs to be brought back to Trump’s age! Don’t let Trump spin that “Biden is too old to be President” when he himself, if he won in 2024, would be the OLDEST man to ever be inaugurated. Fight him on his own turf.
It feels your analysis is only looking at one side of the equation - one side is their opponent, DJT. The other side is themselves. If anyone wants to win an election of any consequence these days, the candidate must both lay out their strengths, be it character, policies, etc., and must highlight and exploit their opponent's weaknesses. Otherwise, they are not playing to win.
IMHO, by trying to walk the line, the candidates are proving they are only playing for second.
Sorry, Chris, you answered your own question in your last graf! It’s ALREADY over! Every foreign leader recognizes Trump will be the GOP standard bearer .... now the overwhelming fear is that Americans will be so stupid (or Trump will so adroitly game the Electoral College system) that he’ll be reelected. Which is why no foreign leader (except his autocrat pals like Orban & Erdogan!) want even to utter his name. They are simply holding their breath in utter fear! I’ve been chronicling this all the time in my SubStack Andelman Unleashed ;-)
Will someone please explain to me why she is running for President? She can't will the nomination and it is unlikely anyone would want her as their running mate.
Before Christie jumped in, I thought Asa was the best GOP candidate. However, he won’t get the traction and won’t win the nomination. He is critical of Trump but doesn’t come out swinging, nor is he boisterous. Christie has what it takes to be boisterous, in your face, critical of Trump, etc. Born and raised in NJ and only left the state 2 years ago, Christie was our governor. While he did do some things that I believe he was guilty of, bridgegate and obviously beachgate, he was not an awful governor. Not at the top of the list but not horrible. At the end of the day, he won’t get the nomination. He may be able to pull some away from Trump, change some minds (independents), it won’t be enough. Haley isn’t a strong enough candidate at all and is not strong in her condemnation of Trump. I get that you don’t want to turn off the voters but none of the candidates can win, or have at least a shot of winning, if they don’t come out like Christie. I do not understand the pardoning aspect and how that can help them win the nomination. They won’t pull Trumps base and many in the country want Trump behind bars...for a very long time.
I think the exact same thing! I mean, I get that challenging Trump is a unique challenge. It's hard to know exactly what the next day or week or month means holds for him. But it seems VERY likely to me that he is in the race to stay -- I just can't imagine him moving on frokm politics at this point.
Chris Christie has the best line of campaign 2024 so far: most of the other candidates are treating Trump like Voldemort - he who must not be named.
Agree, Daniel! And I don't think you can possibly hope to beat Trump that way.
It's darn near impossible. As JVL of The Bulwark puts it (essentially) , "Donald Trump is the greatest president ever. I agree with all of his policies. He is the true winner of the 2020 election which was stolen from him. Now, Biden, the Democrats, and George Soros are railroading him in another witch hunt because they're afraid of him. So vote for me?"
Their only hope with that tactic is argument#1.
C.
I love that you made a dichotomy of "wishy-washy" to heighten (double) her blandness of character and campaigning.
She's running for Vice President, as is Tim Scott.
If Tom Scott or Nikki Hailey hope to be Trump's VP, I hope they've got their affairs in order. It didn't go too well for the last guy.
Tim* Scott. Annoying that the Substack app won't let you edit a post. Phones are where the most typos happen!
I can’t imagine why anyone would give money to Haley’s campaign. I could say that about a number of them. Haley would vote for him if he’s the nominee. And if he gets elected and decides dictatorship is a good future for our country, Nikki and the rest of the Republicans would be cool with that, too.
On the subject of giving money, I have to share because I love this so much. My rep, Elise Stefanik 🤮, has up an “Official Trump Defense Fund.” It has the usual Republican “uncheck or else your donations recur” option. But, the best part is that unless you click through and change the allocation 99% goes to her and 1% to Trump. 🤣
I hate to be cynical, but a cynic might think the only reason she’s out defending him is so she can run this scam. Priorities: Money, Trump, national security. In that order.
Likewise for Mannequin Mike. What a waste of donation dollars.
Any of the candidates are going to have to answer whether they’d pardon Trump. We’ll see how that looks next November.
You’ve laid out the options quite succinctly, Chris.
I think the fundamental issue for the non-Trump candidates is this fear of alienating his core supporters, which is in the range of 40% of Republicans, give or take on a given day. I think the fundamental flaw in their thinking, which leads to their “betwixt and between” strategy, is that they CAN keep his followers yet still beat him. I think this is folly!
I think it’s clear, especially given his increased support AFTER his indictments, is that NOTHING will loosen his grip on the Trump Cult Members! They’re with him literally until the moment he dies, and probably well after! “Shoot someone on 5th Avenue...” etc.
The only strategic path I see is to forgo trying to keep them and continue to tack toward the Center, toward the few reasonable Republicans left, and the independents and undecided. Nothing else will work in the General.
Will that win them the nomination? Hell if I know! But this half-a$$ed avoiding the elephant in the room clearly isn’t working either!
Larry, I think you may be right. It's why I am VERY skeptical that a conviction or even prison time will break the lock Trump has on his supporters. If anything, I think it may cause them to double and triple down on their support of him!
And I think his supporters are proving you right everyday: they are indeed “doubling down” on their support for him.
Nikki Haley is not qualified for any elective office period. Any candidate who cannot see the treasonous criminality outlined in the Trump indictment and blames prosecution on “weaponization “ of the DOJ, fails to understand the rule of law should just take themselves out of the race before the voters do.
I agree. But I think Haley can see it, she just doesn't have the backbone to confront it.
From Chris's spot-on analysis, it is obvious that the current slate (sans Christie and Asa) shouldn't be president since they aren't hungry enough to do what is needed to win the office.
It's (almost) sad to hear Republicans twist and squirm when talking about trump. But then I remind myself how they would be frothing at the mouth if it was a Dem in his position. F-ing hypocrites.
When Kobe Bryant wasn’t sure if the 2008 US Men’s team was going to take things seriously enough at the Olympics, he told them all, “On the first play of the game, I’m going to run through Pau Gasol’s fluffing chest.” He knew what the Spanish team was going to run, he knew Gasol would be the last screen, and he told them all he was going to go right through him.
LeBron and the others were like, “what? You’re not going to do that. That’s your Lakers teammate, that’s your guy. Whatever...”
And then on the first play, he did exactly what he said was going to do. Even though Gasol had inches and about fifty pounds on him, he sent him flying hard enough that, if you look at the video, he’s standing next to the free throw line when Kobe runs into him and doesn’t stop sliding until his whole body is outside of the three point line.
The rest of the guys went “holy s***,” and then immediately realized there was no way they were losing this game.
Trump is Gasol. He’s big and soft. Some other Republican needs to put on their big boy pants and decide to be Kobe.
I am intrigued to see if any one does. Christie is gearing up to be that guy but he is so un-trusted by the Republican electorate that I am not at all sure he can pull it off.
Precisely. The GOP base and others already have tuned out Christie.
Also, there is NO WAY he holds back from attacking DeSantis either. He just can't help himself.
Nice analogy!
I agree that Trump staying in the Presidential race may help him raise some money and may also save him him jail time., but not from conviction. He is going to be convicted in one or all of the charges that have been and would be brought against him.Biden would pardon him in 2025, yes in 2025 after most or all of the cases have been resolved.
I think Nikki Haley changed her mind after reading the indictment and realizing how badly Trump acted in handling the classified documents and deliberately obstructing justice.. After all her Husband is in the Military
What would be the reason for pardoning??
There would have to be a caveat that he can never run for office or speak about any politician or political office again.
Good Reason for pardoning him would be out of respect for the office of Presidency . And I totally agree with the condition that he would never run for a political office again
I would bet my bottom dollar that Trump will be able to stall the trials until after the election is over, and that if he does win, he will spike the football, pardon himself, and never set foot in Georgia to avoid Fani Willis and the repercussions there (that is unless the new rules letting the GA legislature allow the cowardly R's in GA to remove prosecutors because they are D's or mean to their Republican fee fees
I would submit that the Republican Presidential nomination race is already over and for those Democrats who are gleeful about getting another shot at Trump, I say, "Be careful what you wish for."
I don’t think there are any easy answers to who would be best for Biden to run against. The battle (per Chris’ column on Trump’s health) needs to be brought back to Trump’s age! Don’t let Trump spin that “Biden is too old to be President” when he himself, if he won in 2024, would be the OLDEST man to ever be inaugurated. Fight him on his own turf.
Chris:
It feels your analysis is only looking at one side of the equation - one side is their opponent, DJT. The other side is themselves. If anyone wants to win an election of any consequence these days, the candidate must both lay out their strengths, be it character, policies, etc., and must highlight and exploit their opponent's weaknesses. Otherwise, they are not playing to win.
IMHO, by trying to walk the line, the candidates are proving they are only playing for second.
Sorry, Chris, you answered your own question in your last graf! It’s ALREADY over! Every foreign leader recognizes Trump will be the GOP standard bearer .... now the overwhelming fear is that Americans will be so stupid (or Trump will so adroitly game the Electoral College system) that he’ll be reelected. Which is why no foreign leader (except his autocrat pals like Orban & Erdogan!) want even to utter his name. They are simply holding their breath in utter fear! I’ve been chronicling this all the time in my SubStack Andelman Unleashed ;-)
The first person to mention Hitler automatically loses the argument. Godwins law. Is it really true with Trump? I think not.
Will someone please explain to me why she is running for President? She can't will the nomination and it is unlikely anyone would want her as their running mate.
Most of them just wannabe VP. Stupid, thankless gig - Trump's VP, but look at Nikki, and there you go.
Before Christie jumped in, I thought Asa was the best GOP candidate. However, he won’t get the traction and won’t win the nomination. He is critical of Trump but doesn’t come out swinging, nor is he boisterous. Christie has what it takes to be boisterous, in your face, critical of Trump, etc. Born and raised in NJ and only left the state 2 years ago, Christie was our governor. While he did do some things that I believe he was guilty of, bridgegate and obviously beachgate, he was not an awful governor. Not at the top of the list but not horrible. At the end of the day, he won’t get the nomination. He may be able to pull some away from Trump, change some minds (independents), it won’t be enough. Haley isn’t a strong enough candidate at all and is not strong in her condemnation of Trump. I get that you don’t want to turn off the voters but none of the candidates can win, or have at least a shot of winning, if they don’t come out like Christie. I do not understand the pardoning aspect and how that can help them win the nomination. They won’t pull Trumps base and many in the country want Trump behind bars...for a very long time.
Great column, Chris. Why do you even bother running for president if you're not going to take on the frontrunner?
I think the exact same thing! I mean, I get that challenging Trump is a unique challenge. It's hard to know exactly what the next day or week or month means holds for him. But it seems VERY likely to me that he is in the race to stay -- I just can't imagine him moving on frokm politics at this point.