Ranking the 2024 Republican field

The top 10!

(Donald Trump)

We are now less than one month away from the first Republican presidential debate, the unofficial starter’s gun of the 2024 race.

The debate is likely a do-or-die moment for several campaigns — most notably those of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and former Vice President Mike Pence, both of whom are limping to the starting gate.

DeSantis is in the midst of an overhaul of his campaign — never a good sign just a few months into the race. The call to “let Ron be Ron” is, to my mind, a mistake. If he doesn’t perform in the debate, it could well mean the end or at least the beginning of the end for DeSantis.

Pence has not yet even qualified to make the debate stage — still struggling to find the 40,000 donors he needs to make it. While his advisers insist that he will be there, the very fact that he is struggling speaks to the fundamental lack of appeal of his candidacy. Even if he makes the stage, it’s not entirely clear that Pence’s low-key style will win him any fans — or momentum — both of which he badly needs.

On the other end of the momentum spectrum is South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott, who is riding an early advertising blitz in early states to double-digit support in polling in Iowa and beyond.

Scott’s relentlessly positive messaging is also paying dividends — although he is likely to be tested in the coming weeks as his Republican opponents begin to take shots at him out of their opposition research books.

Through it all, Donald Trump remains steady — and steadily WAY ahead of the rest of the field. It’s not entirely clear to me how any of the candidates beneath him plan to make up such a sizable gap in the remaining months before the first votes in Iowa next January.

Below are my rankings of the 10 candidates most likely to wind up as the Republican nominee.

With the race getting into gear, I am going to start doing these rankings monthly now. Rankings can and will change! So if you don’t see your preferred candidate on the list — or they aren’t ranked as high as you think they should be —just wait a month. Stuff changes!

I am also putting them behind a paywall. This is the sort of stuff that I want to reward paid subscribers with going forward. And, as I have said, I am going to be putting more and more stuff behind the paywall in the coming months, so please consider becoming a paid subscriber today!

You can always e-mail me your thoughts on these rankings at cillizzac@gmail.com. I’ll do my best to respond.