Reason #356 Donald Trump is going to be the GOP nominee
Wither Tim Scott.
This, from Politico’s Natalie Allison on Monday afternoon, is pretty damn, um, damning:
The super PAC supporting Tim Scott’s presidential bid is canceling most of its remaining TV spending, reversing course after reserving $40 million in ads for him ahead of the Iowa caucuses.
The retreat from TV is the latest sign of how dire the primary has become for a candidate who once anticipated outside help from big donors — but who is now polling in low single digits and hasn’t yet qualified for the third debate.
At first glance, you might think something like “This is bad for Tim Scott!” And you would be right!
But, upon further inspection, what the pull back by Scott’s super PAC really tells us is something very important about the broader Republican race.
Here’s how Scott’s super PAC chief explained the move, again according to Politico.
“We are doing what would be obvious in the business world but will mystify politicos — we aren’t going to waste our money when the electorate isn’t focused or ready for a Trump alternative,” wrote Rob Collins, co-chair of the super PAC, who said the “Never-Trump field” is going to be “wasting money this fall” trying to undermine Trump’s current lead.
“This electorate is locked up and money spent on mass media isn’t going to change minds until we get a lot closer to voting,” Collins continued.
Which puts the reality of the Republican race pretty plainly: Republican voters are overwhelmingly choosing Donald Trump as their nominee and have shown little inclination to search for an alternative candidate to the former president.
Spending money then trying to persuade voters who don’t want to be persuaded is a fool’s errand.
We’ve heard this tune before — less than a month ago when the Club for Growth, a conservative outside group seeking to influence the 2024 election, admitted that its millions of dollars in TV ad spending against Trump had been for naught.
Wrote Club president David McIntosh in a memo to donors on the ad spending:
Even when you show video to Republican primary voters — with complete context — of President Trump saying something otherwise objectionable to primary voters, they find a way to rationalize and dismiss it.
Every traditional postproduction ad attacking President Trump either backfired or produced no impact on his ballot support and favorability. This includes ads that primarily feature video of him saying liberal or stupid comments from his own mouth.
And if that rings a bell, it’s because of this — as reported in the New Yorker by Benjamin Wallace-Wells — on Ron DeSantis’ frustrations with finding a Trump attack that works:
Even attaching Trump’s name to an otherwise effective message had a tendency to invert the results, this source said. If a moderator said that the Covid lockdowns destroyed small businesses and facilitated the largest upward wealth transfer in modern American history, seventy per cent of the Republicans surveyed would agree. But, if the moderator said that Trump’s Covid lockdowns destroyed small businesses and facilitated the largest upward wealth transfer in modern American history, the source said, seventy per cent would disagree.
Add to ALL of that this fact: The candidates in the GOP field who have taken on Trump most directly and repeatedly — Chris Christie and Mike Pence — are reviled within the party base now.
The current reality of the Republican race is this: A majority of voters have made their minds up about Donald Trump. They are going to vote for him. They have zero interest in hearing criticism of him from other Republicans. And they are absolutely disinclined to believe any criticism that they do hear of him.
That would be an issue if Trump was leading the race by 10 points. It’s a massive problem when Trump is leading the race — nationally and in every early state — by somewhere between 30 and 40 points.
The only way to narrow that gap is to attack the frontrunner, to try to slow his momentum. But, Republican voters — again — don’t a) want to see Trump attacked or b) believe the attacks on Trump.
Now, if you believe the Tim Scott super PAC memo, this is only a temporary condition. As Rob Collins writes (emphasis mine): “This electorate is locked up and money spent on mass media isn’t going to change minds until we get a lot closer to voting.”
Which, of course, suggests that once the caucuses and primaries are closer — maybe early next year? — voters will start to look around for Trump alternatives. And that Scott (and his well-heeled super PAC) will be ready and waiting.
Which, um…
This is the definition of wishful thinking. Ask yourself this: What could Republican voters find out now about Donald Trump that would make them question their long-standing support for him?
To answer that question, I’d like to quote none other than Donald Trump: “I could stand in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shoot somebody, and I wouldn't lose any voters, OK? It’s, like, incredible.”
Yes, yes it is.
I’ve written before that the modern Republican party is best understood as a cult of personality organized around the wants and whims of Trump.
There have been predictions for years now — by everyone from Mitch McConnell to Joe Biden — that Republicans would wake up from this Trump fever dream and start acting “normal” again.
And, every one of those predictions has been dead wrong.
I see NO reason that — sometime between now and January — there will be any significant appetite for a Trump alternative in this race. None.
There could be video footage of Trump handing the nuclear launch codes over to Putin while he simultaneously launches a nuclear attack on Great Britain and he wouldn't lose a single supporter. NOT. ONE....................
Chris, well said. I 100% agree with you and have said this from the beginning. It’s Trumps nomination to lose and shame on the GOP for not unloading him back in 2015. Here we are 8 years later and he will be the nominee once again. I just pray that Biden pulls this off, as we will be in store for many many dark days. As it is, we are not, as a country, in good shape and this is the tip of the iceberg. Although, Trump losing the election won’t be good for the country, either. There will be more violence than we can imagine, IMO. The whole rigging of another election, etc. I do not understand how this can even be happening, again.