This is completely unrelated to this article, but it's been on my mind... I notice that lately, you seem to only respond to the unreasonable criticism in your comments. I totally get it, but I wish you would engage more with more positive/thoughtful posts too! Reward the people who want to have interesting conversations. Engaging with your fans, not only your detractors, is a solid way to build out your brand.
Happy to help! I might also suggest talking to Justin Robert Young about this stuff, since I know you and him are collegial. He's masterful at handling his... impassioned audience, and he's had many years to refine his methods.
19 or 20 ish states already use an open primary. So not quite sure the impact that would have. Here in Texas we use open primaries, but it still pushes candidates to the fringes rather than the center.
Ranked choice? That's diff, imo, I'd think this would have a dramatic impact. Or maybe not dramatic, but it would, in theory have the effect of moderating candidates.
37% of Americans eligible to vote, did not vote for Trump or Harris. Democrats tend to win special elections by over performing. The current chaos and firings of proportionally more Republicans and veterans will have a huge impact on swing state voting behavior. Getting Americans angry enough to be engaged has always been a problem for both parties.
Trump is President. Republicans control both House and Senate (in theory lol. They actually seem to have no control at the moment). They will be and are being punished for the carnage they are causing.
The inflection point is when reality overtakes ideology. As it is now. Trump can’t blame Hillary for everything for ever lol
No state i can discern has swung more than West Virginia with the death of the United Mine Workers of America. West Virginia’s flip cost Gore the presidency in 2000. If he wins West Virginia Florida doesn’t matter. When Gore looked up two days before the election…it was too late.
Are these swings just based on the most recent presidential election? If so I wonder if it is more influenced by the feelings toward the candidates, Trump vs Harris / Biden, then the parties themselves?
Interesting, but unsurprising. What’s also fascinating is how many states have switched partisan sides since the 90s. Chris mentioned WV as the swingiest, but the majority of states have switched sides, though less dramatically. I think of the 3 west coast states as having been pretty evenly balanced but leaning slightly Republican (until the 90s). Then the southwest and Rocky Mountain states CO, NM, AZ, NV have also moved a lot to the left (from their 80s republican leaning). All the south - and FL and MO have moved hard right (GA less so). IL used to be Republican-ish. And all of New England and the mid-Atlantics down to VA have shifted left. Even IN, OK, TX, UT and ID used to elect Democratic senators!
Yes, even Ruby Red Texas, used to send Dem Sens. But it's been since 1993. 30+ years ago is a lifetime ago. And being From Texas, Not Texan - it's felt like multiple lifetimes since anybody other than far right voices have been heard in Texas.
And don't even get me started on what is happening now. Abbott....Paxton....Patrick. Weird wild stuff.
Maryland has NOT shifted left we are moderate and sometimes conservative Democrats. We contributed to NIXON's demise with our criminal and Hogan was the least awful of the candidates pretending to be non-MAGA. You are forgetting our great Senator Mikulski...and Cardin and Steny Hoyer...and the horrific ANDY HARRIS is on the downswing...with horrific avian flu in his district...about which he cares NOTHING...
My sister and niece live in Salisbury where there's a big Perdue plant. How can someone representing that area not care about avian flu? (Rhetorical question.)
This is exactly the kind of political nerd data I live for. The trendlines are clear: the number of competitive states is shrinking, the Electoral College leans Republican, and America is self-sorting into political silos at an alarming rate.
Wisconsin is now the only true swing state, which should set off alarm bells. In 1960, 34 states were within single digits in the presidential race. Now, that number is 13, and only seven were contested in 2024. We are headed toward a future where a handful of states determines elections while the rest of the country sits in solidly blue or red territory, locked in for decades.
The GOP’s Electoral College advantage is undeniable. Trump won 31 states where he outperformed his national vote share, totaling 312 electoral votes, exactly what he needed to win. Meanwhile, Democrats have only 19 states (plus DC) where they overperformed, totaling just 227 electoral votes. That is a massive shift from 2013, when Democrats actually had the advantage.
And then there’s West Virginia. Once a Democratic stronghold, it has now become one of the most Republican states in the country, proving that realignment is real and still happening.
Bottom line: The battleground is shrinking, polarization is intensifying, and the GOP starts every presidential race with a built-in map advantage. Democrats have their work cut out for them.
What a surprise! Charlie Syke's Wisconsin is split which is a real surprise to me. Living in Minnesota, we tend to see Wisconsin as a more Republican state than an even split.
I am also surprised by Minnesota being in a leaning Republican category given that the metropolitan areas' populations tend to neutralize the out-state Republicans. With the exception of my 6th District where it clips the edge of the Twin Cities and includes St Cloud but is reliably Republican.
Oh Vermont? That explains their reaction in Warren, Vermont when J.D. Vance went skiing at Sugarbush last weekend. Sugarbush is a great ski resort by the way. I have been there in 2023 and enjoyed the mountains 100%.
No state is more aptly named than the Green Mountain state. Absolutely beautiful and the people are very welcoming. A politically literate and astute bunch to boot.
My wife has fam in VT. Every time I go, my inner Mountain Man speaks to me. I envision, if the winters weren't so brutal, I'd leave the insane heat of Texas to become a FT Vermonter.
Fascinating analysis as always!
This is completely unrelated to this article, but it's been on my mind... I notice that lately, you seem to only respond to the unreasonable criticism in your comments. I totally get it, but I wish you would engage more with more positive/thoughtful posts too! Reward the people who want to have interesting conversations. Engaging with your fans, not only your detractors, is a solid way to build out your brand.
Well said. And I will. I need to be better at it! Thanks for the good advice, Todd.
Happy to help! I might also suggest talking to Justin Robert Young about this stuff, since I know you and him are collegial. He's masterful at handling his... impassioned audience, and he's had many years to refine his methods.
I wonder how much this would change if we introduced open primaries and rank choice voting
19 or 20 ish states already use an open primary. So not quite sure the impact that would have. Here in Texas we use open primaries, but it still pushes candidates to the fringes rather than the center.
Ranked choice? That's diff, imo, I'd think this would have a dramatic impact. Or maybe not dramatic, but it would, in theory have the effect of moderating candidates.
I guess I’m talking about a top 2-4 primary where the top vote getters in an earlier round regardless of party advance to the final ballot
Ahhhhh.....you are talking about Top 2 or Top 4 Partisan primaries or Multiple Party Partisan Primaries. Used in 5 states I believe.
I'd get on board w something similar. Anything that doesn't reward extremist candidates or push candidates to extremes, I'm good with.
Chris this type of “nerdy “ stuff is why I subscribe!
37% of Americans eligible to vote, did not vote for Trump or Harris. Democrats tend to win special elections by over performing. The current chaos and firings of proportionally more Republicans and veterans will have a huge impact on swing state voting behavior. Getting Americans angry enough to be engaged has always been a problem for both parties.
Trump is President. Republicans control both House and Senate (in theory lol. They actually seem to have no control at the moment). They will be and are being punished for the carnage they are causing.
The inflection point is when reality overtakes ideology. As it is now. Trump can’t blame Hillary for everything for ever lol
No state i can discern has swung more than West Virginia with the death of the United Mine Workers of America. West Virginia’s flip cost Gore the presidency in 2000. If he wins West Virginia Florida doesn’t matter. When Gore looked up two days before the election…it was too late.
Cool chart! Thanks Chris!!
You bet!
so can all the blue states join Canada lol! and let the Red States take care of themselves???? Asking for a friend
Are these swings just based on the most recent presidential election? If so I wonder if it is more influenced by the feelings toward the candidates, Trump vs Harris / Biden, then the parties themselves?
Love the nerdiness, but you need to work on your desktop drumroll. Neil Peart you ain't brother!
HA! Well said.
Interesting, but unsurprising. What’s also fascinating is how many states have switched partisan sides since the 90s. Chris mentioned WV as the swingiest, but the majority of states have switched sides, though less dramatically. I think of the 3 west coast states as having been pretty evenly balanced but leaning slightly Republican (until the 90s). Then the southwest and Rocky Mountain states CO, NM, AZ, NV have also moved a lot to the left (from their 80s republican leaning). All the south - and FL and MO have moved hard right (GA less so). IL used to be Republican-ish. And all of New England and the mid-Atlantics down to VA have shifted left. Even IN, OK, TX, UT and ID used to elect Democratic senators!
Yes, even Ruby Red Texas, used to send Dem Sens. But it's been since 1993. 30+ years ago is a lifetime ago. And being From Texas, Not Texan - it's felt like multiple lifetimes since anybody other than far right voices have been heard in Texas.
And don't even get me started on what is happening now. Abbott....Paxton....Patrick. Weird wild stuff.
Maryland has NOT shifted left we are moderate and sometimes conservative Democrats. We contributed to NIXON's demise with our criminal and Hogan was the least awful of the candidates pretending to be non-MAGA. You are forgetting our great Senator Mikulski...and Cardin and Steny Hoyer...and the horrific ANDY HARRIS is on the downswing...with horrific avian flu in his district...about which he cares NOTHING...
My sister and niece live in Salisbury where there's a big Perdue plant. How can someone representing that area not care about avian flu? (Rhetorical question.)
Fellow Marylander here, just chiming in to say that Andy Harris is the absolute worst.
I like nerdie info
Me too!
This is exactly the kind of political nerd data I live for. The trendlines are clear: the number of competitive states is shrinking, the Electoral College leans Republican, and America is self-sorting into political silos at an alarming rate.
Wisconsin is now the only true swing state, which should set off alarm bells. In 1960, 34 states were within single digits in the presidential race. Now, that number is 13, and only seven were contested in 2024. We are headed toward a future where a handful of states determines elections while the rest of the country sits in solidly blue or red territory, locked in for decades.
The GOP’s Electoral College advantage is undeniable. Trump won 31 states where he outperformed his national vote share, totaling 312 electoral votes, exactly what he needed to win. Meanwhile, Democrats have only 19 states (plus DC) where they overperformed, totaling just 227 electoral votes. That is a massive shift from 2013, when Democrats actually had the advantage.
And then there’s West Virginia. Once a Democratic stronghold, it has now become one of the most Republican states in the country, proving that realignment is real and still happening.
Bottom line: The battleground is shrinking, polarization is intensifying, and the GOP starts every presidential race with a built-in map advantage. Democrats have their work cut out for them.
Fascinating!
What a surprise! Charlie Syke's Wisconsin is split which is a real surprise to me. Living in Minnesota, we tend to see Wisconsin as a more Republican state than an even split.
I am also surprised by Minnesota being in a leaning Republican category given that the metropolitan areas' populations tend to neutralize the out-state Republicans. With the exception of my 6th District where it clips the edge of the Twin Cities and includes St Cloud but is reliably Republican.
Democrats need to look hard at states like Ohio, Florida, Missouri, and Iowa, which were competitive until fairly recently and now aren't anymore.
More red arrows than blue arrows, it seems.
Oh Vermont? That explains their reaction in Warren, Vermont when J.D. Vance went skiing at Sugarbush last weekend. Sugarbush is a great ski resort by the way. I have been there in 2023 and enjoyed the mountains 100%.
No state is more aptly named than the Green Mountain state. Absolutely beautiful and the people are very welcoming. A politically literate and astute bunch to boot.
My wife has fam in VT. Every time I go, my inner Mountain Man speaks to me. I envision, if the winters weren't so brutal, I'd leave the insane heat of Texas to become a FT Vermonter.
Vermont has the highest percentage of lesbian run B&Bs in the US.
Also the highest number of craft breweries and farmers markets per capita in the country!
Uhhhhh.....ok.
We're not much of a B&B family. But thanks for the tidbit/fun fact.
What does that have to do with the price of eggs in China Oh yea the price is going up
A little nerdy maybe, but seeing the factual movement over a few decades is good perspective of where we are -- thanks Chris.