The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter is out with a new analysis of the partisanship of all 50 states and it is FASCINATING.
The whole thing is worth your time but I wanted to pull out a few data points that struck me most.
Swing states are disappearing
In the 1960 presidential race between John F. Kennedy and Richard Nixon, Cook calculates that 34(!) states were decided by single digits and 20 states were within 5 points.
Even in 1997 there were 26 states with a Partisan Voting Index between R+5 and D+5, which Cook defines as competitive.
(Sidebar: The Partisan Voting Index (PVI) is used by Cook to compare every state’s performance to every other state and to the national popular vote. A state with a PVI of R+3 simply means that the state has, in 2020 and 2024, voted 3 points more Republican than the national popular vote. A PVI of D+8 would mean the state voted 8 points higher for the last two Democratic nominees than they got in the national popular vote.)
In 2025, only 13 states have a PVI between R+5 and D+5. And only half of those states were swing states in 2024.
What explains this? Increased polarization for sure. But also self-sorting — we now tend to live in communities and even states where people share our political leanings and values.
The GOP electoral college edge
If you followed the 2024 election, you know that the Republican nominee — in this case Donald Trump — started with an edge due to the fact that the electoral map currently leans in favor of the GOP.
The Cook analysis confirms that fact.
There are 31 states where, over the last two presidential elections, Trump has done better than his national popular vote percentage. Those states total 312 electoral votes — the exact number Trump won last November.
By contrast, the last two Democratic nominees outperformed their national popular vote showing in just 19 states — plus DC — with a total of 227 electoral votes.
That’s a big shift from even 2013. At that time, there were 23 states (283 electoral votes) where the Democratic nominee did better than they did nationally and 27 states (255 electoral votes) where the Republican nominee over-performed his national popular vote showing.
The most Democratic and Republican states
What states are the MOST safe for each side?
For Republicans, it’s Wyoming with a PVI score of R+23 over the last two elections. For Democrats, it’s Vermont at D+17.
The swingiest state in the country is Wisconsin, with a PVI score of “Even” — meaning it performed exactly at the national popular vote in 2020 and 2024.
The map below shows how each state has moved since 1997 in terms of PVI. The bigger the arrow, the bigger the change.
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