Keep your eye on North Carolina. There is a crazy man -- their Lt. Gov. -- running for governor and no doubt there will be people motivated to vote against him. That potential increase in turnout should benefit Harris/Walz.
Yes, I think there is a good chance that Robinson is so outrageous that "normie" Rs will stay home or vote D in the hope that sanity can return. Cooper and Obama proved Ds can win in NC
Chris - Like most Democrats I was dreading the election before Biden dropped out. I'm more confident than ever now. Trump is running a low energy weird campaign and Vance has been a disaster.
Everyone is united around Kamala and the convention has not even happened yet. It's going to be a solid Democratic election win!
Harris, like Obama, is making history. The momentum will build like a snowball as people realize that they have a chance to be part of a seismic historical event, something they can talk about to their grandchildren. “I was there….
Kemp definitely won’t come out for Harris but I hope he keeps that integrity we saw during the attempted coup and refuses to stump for Trump. I’ve been disappointed by the seemingly “good” Republicans who reluctantly kissed the ring (looking at you Haley), but even if he just *stays quiet* on all this he will have more respect from me than before. Man, the bar is so low these days.
Kamala-mentum- love it! And the Cook mention of 'unforced errors'.
My sister and I, up here in Canada, are elderly political junkies, and only a short while ago were depressed over the likely future of the US, and by association, Canada and the World.
We watched the Kamala-Walz rally a few nights ago and were uplifted with hope that there are still some positive possibilities.
The momentum and trend lines in the polls are clear. They are driven by Kamala’s positive energy and fatigue with the negative and nasty Trump campaign. If you saw Kamala deal with hecklers yesterday, that’s raw political talent. As to North Carolina, the noxious R Gov candidate - Robinson- may well keep “normie” Rs home or compel them to vote D. Cooper and Obama have shown Ds can win there.
It's going to be an exciting 3 months! Obviously, I know Harris/Walz will be spending a lot of time in the 6 tossup states but do you think they will do some events elsewhere? If yes, where? I'm hoping for a chance of a Northern VA rally *fingers crossed*
There are pros and cons about Walz. Our individual opinions on this have no effect. I'm just focused on ACTION STEPS to keep Trump away from the White House.
People are certainly feeling more hopeful with Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (compared to Biden). But I’m concerned that many people seem complacent. There are thousands of swing state voters who aren’t clear on how they’d benefit by voting Democratic. Incredibly, some people cannot see how dangerous Trump is. Some Democrats get that, but hesitate to vote for Kamala because they don’t like Biden’s handling of Gaza. And some people are dumb enough to not realize that voting for RFK Jr. is essentially voting for Trump.
Phone banking is a waste of time; people don’t answer unknown numbers. Texting people just makes them angry.
I believe the most effective way to generate Democratic votes in swing states is Focus4Democacy. They have decades of experience crafting effective campaign messages. Look at their website and see their deep bench of expertise. Only $300 spent on their outreach gets a Democratic vote, in contrast with other options that cost thousands just to get 1 vote. They actually have research to back this up. Their next Zoom is Sunday, August 18 at 5PM PT/8PM ET
Register at https://bit.ly/F4D18Aug They do a zoom every 2 weeks where they explain how they test and refine messages that generate more Democratic votes in battleground states. And they track the results. They need donations. If you can't donate, pls. forward Focus4Democracy's info to everyone you know. https://www.focus4democracy.org I’ve forwarded it to many people and together, we’ve garnered several thousand dollars in donations.
Alternatively, contact people you know in the swing states. Former colleagues, friends, relatives – anyone you know in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina.
People, time to take off the party hats and get moving! Who will join me in taking action?
I had a conversation with a guy at a bar in Conshohocken PA (Philly burb) this week. Turns out he also has a Lincoln Project sticker on his car too. But I brought up Chris's column the other day when he talked about comparing politics to the porn industry. The bartender joined in as did others. There was unanimous agreement that people often say what they think their audience wants them to be, rather than what they actually do. I am happy I am paying to subscribe to Chris's stack. Good timely perspective. 👍🏽
Unless Trump becomes more of an arsehole than he's always been, I don't see how the Democrats can win. Harris hasn't really been vetted yet on the national stage. She hasn't been challenged by the media. Her record hasn't fully analyzed. She's vulnerable on border issues (Arizona and Nevada) and perhaps with socially moderate conservative Catholic voters in PA, WI, & MI.
Yeah, but it is a short campaign. Early voting starts in 1 month. And she won't be challenged by the Media because they want her to win. This is a coin-flip election as of right now.
Fair points regarding the short campaign, although I suspect some in the left leaning mainstream media will begin to attack her if she doesn't answer questions.
Don’t trust the polls- Harris is LOSING. The only Democratic candidate who has beaten Donald Trump before is Joe Biden. And I know he will do it again.
Does it really?😎 Just kidding, Tacitus has every right to voice his opinion. I just have no idea how he came to that conclusion. If Joe Biden jumps back in the race I will eat my phone.😜
And it still has time to process it before the convention. Harris doesn’t have what it takes to win the election, and Waltz has nothing for him that could elect himself as the VP. The only candidate I’m for to win this election is Joe Biden.
KH is already the official Dem nominee. And the odds are Joe Biden will have a stroke or something before the end of his term, and KH will become Acting President.
Yes. President Trump wins ez. I remember (not that long ago) when President Trump was killing JB in the polls and the comments on this sure were almost universal: You can’t trust the polls! Now, the polls show a tightening and folks are giddy and are all in on the same polls! It’s SO hilarious to watch! I agree Tacitus, VP Harris does not have what it takes to win. She the Hail Mary candidate on the campaign titanic.
Harris can win. A short campaign means she doesn't have to speak much off the cuff, something she is notoriously bad at. She can continue the scripted production she is doing right now, with only 1 or 2 debates with Trump where she could possibly blow it. The Media wants her to win. She will have effectively unlimited funds. The biggest risk for her is probably Joe Biden strokes out and she has to actually be president before the election.
People check-pick the polls that fit their perspective and narrative. All of us do so in this era, this is sad but this is true. But I’ll say this, President Biden has underestimated by the polls, he has the incumbent advantage, and the perception of the economy is going to improve when it comes close to the election. Things could work for Joe Biden.
But Tactus Kilgore, Joe Biden has stepped down and endorsed Kamala Harris. Biden is not contesting anymore. Kamala Harris is ans she's going to defeat Trump
Look, the only one who had beaten Trump before is President Biden, we are in the battle of the soul of this nation… this is the difficult time, but nothing is beyond our capacity when we act together… We just need to remember who we are.
I haven’t seen that poll, but a big slice of the the “don’t approve” number for Biden arose out of his insistence on running again rather than out of his performance
Keep your eye on North Carolina. There is a crazy man -- their Lt. Gov. -- running for governor and no doubt there will be people motivated to vote against him. That potential increase in turnout should benefit Harris/Walz.
Yes, Daniel you hit the nail right on the head! I think most folks here realize he would be a disaster and won’t vote for him.
Yes, I think there is a good chance that Robinson is so outrageous that "normie" Rs will stay home or vote D in the hope that sanity can return. Cooper and Obama proved Ds can win in NC
Chris - Like most Democrats I was dreading the election before Biden dropped out. I'm more confident than ever now. Trump is running a low energy weird campaign and Vance has been a disaster.
Everyone is united around Kamala and the convention has not even happened yet. It's going to be a solid Democratic election win!
Harris, like Obama, is making history. The momentum will build like a snowball as people realize that they have a chance to be part of a seismic historical event, something they can talk about to their grandchildren. “I was there….
I’d like to think that Georgia is off the map for the GOP as Trump is being remarkably foolish dissing Kemp.
Kemp definitely won’t come out for Harris but I hope he keeps that integrity we saw during the attempted coup and refuses to stump for Trump. I’ve been disappointed by the seemingly “good” Republicans who reluctantly kissed the ring (looking at you Haley), but even if he just *stays quiet* on all this he will have more respect from me than before. Man, the bar is so low these days.
Kamala-mentum- love it! And the Cook mention of 'unforced errors'.
My sister and I, up here in Canada, are elderly political junkies, and only a short while ago were depressed over the likely future of the US, and by association, Canada and the World.
We watched the Kamala-Walz rally a few nights ago and were uplifted with hope that there are still some positive possibilities.
Thank you. We are all in this together!
The momentum and trend lines in the polls are clear. They are driven by Kamala’s positive energy and fatigue with the negative and nasty Trump campaign. If you saw Kamala deal with hecklers yesterday, that’s raw political talent. As to North Carolina, the noxious R Gov candidate - Robinson- may well keep “normie” Rs home or compel them to vote D. Cooper and Obama have shown Ds can win there.
It's going to be an exciting 3 months! Obviously, I know Harris/Walz will be spending a lot of time in the 6 tossup states but do you think they will do some events elsewhere? If yes, where? I'm hoping for a chance of a Northern VA rally *fingers crossed*
We win PA MI and WI..game over
Chris, thanks for your clarity.
There are pros and cons about Walz. Our individual opinions on this have no effect. I'm just focused on ACTION STEPS to keep Trump away from the White House.
People are certainly feeling more hopeful with Kamala Harris and Tim Walz (compared to Biden). But I’m concerned that many people seem complacent. There are thousands of swing state voters who aren’t clear on how they’d benefit by voting Democratic. Incredibly, some people cannot see how dangerous Trump is. Some Democrats get that, but hesitate to vote for Kamala because they don’t like Biden’s handling of Gaza. And some people are dumb enough to not realize that voting for RFK Jr. is essentially voting for Trump.
Phone banking is a waste of time; people don’t answer unknown numbers. Texting people just makes them angry.
I believe the most effective way to generate Democratic votes in swing states is Focus4Democacy. They have decades of experience crafting effective campaign messages. Look at their website and see their deep bench of expertise. Only $300 spent on their outreach gets a Democratic vote, in contrast with other options that cost thousands just to get 1 vote. They actually have research to back this up. Their next Zoom is Sunday, August 18 at 5PM PT/8PM ET
Register at https://bit.ly/F4D18Aug They do a zoom every 2 weeks where they explain how they test and refine messages that generate more Democratic votes in battleground states. And they track the results. They need donations. If you can't donate, pls. forward Focus4Democracy's info to everyone you know. https://www.focus4democracy.org I’ve forwarded it to many people and together, we’ve garnered several thousand dollars in donations.
Alternatively, contact people you know in the swing states. Former colleagues, friends, relatives – anyone you know in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia, North Carolina.
People, time to take off the party hats and get moving! Who will join me in taking action?
I had a conversation with a guy at a bar in Conshohocken PA (Philly burb) this week. Turns out he also has a Lincoln Project sticker on his car too. But I brought up Chris's column the other day when he talked about comparing politics to the porn industry. The bartender joined in as did others. There was unanimous agreement that people often say what they think their audience wants them to be, rather than what they actually do. I am happy I am paying to subscribe to Chris's stack. Good timely perspective. 👍🏽
Choosing a toxic oddball like Vance as VP also helps in NC. Couch sitters may be doubly motivated to flush the loons.
How long can the Big Mo last?
It will last well into Harry's first 100 days in the office.
What happened to the transcripts? (I'm hard of hearing)
Unless Trump becomes more of an arsehole than he's always been, I don't see how the Democrats can win. Harris hasn't really been vetted yet on the national stage. She hasn't been challenged by the media. Her record hasn't fully analyzed. She's vulnerable on border issues (Arizona and Nevada) and perhaps with socially moderate conservative Catholic voters in PA, WI, & MI.
Yeah, but it is a short campaign. Early voting starts in 1 month. And she won't be challenged by the Media because they want her to win. This is a coin-flip election as of right now.
Fair points regarding the short campaign, although I suspect some in the left leaning mainstream media will begin to attack her if she doesn't answer questions.
Don’t trust the polls- Harris is LOSING. The only Democratic candidate who has beaten Donald Trump before is Joe Biden. And I know he will do it again.
Huh?
I mean what I said
Tacitus,
How can he win when he has withdrawn as a candidate. It is a moot point.
It takes all kinds.
Does it really?😎 Just kidding, Tacitus has every right to voice his opinion. I just have no idea how he came to that conclusion. If Joe Biden jumps back in the race I will eat my phone.😜
President Biden better jumps back but not because I wanted to see you eat your phone, Doug.
None of this is true. If he stayed, he could win.
And it still has time to process it before the convention. Harris doesn’t have what it takes to win the election, and Waltz has nothing for him that could elect himself as the VP. The only candidate I’m for to win this election is Joe Biden.
KH is already the official Dem nominee. And the odds are Joe Biden will have a stroke or something before the end of his term, and KH will become Acting President.
Yes. President Trump wins ez. I remember (not that long ago) when President Trump was killing JB in the polls and the comments on this sure were almost universal: You can’t trust the polls! Now, the polls show a tightening and folks are giddy and are all in on the same polls! It’s SO hilarious to watch! I agree Tacitus, VP Harris does not have what it takes to win. She the Hail Mary candidate on the campaign titanic.
Harris can win. A short campaign means she doesn't have to speak much off the cuff, something she is notoriously bad at. She can continue the scripted production she is doing right now, with only 1 or 2 debates with Trump where she could possibly blow it. The Media wants her to win. She will have effectively unlimited funds. The biggest risk for her is probably Joe Biden strokes out and she has to actually be president before the election.
People check-pick the polls that fit their perspective and narrative. All of us do so in this era, this is sad but this is true. But I’ll say this, President Biden has underestimated by the polls, he has the incumbent advantage, and the perception of the economy is going to improve when it comes close to the election. Things could work for Joe Biden.
Donald Trump- aka John Barron..aka Tacitus Kilgore
That was uncalled for.
But Tactus Kilgore, Joe Biden has stepped down and endorsed Kamala Harris. Biden is not contesting anymore. Kamala Harris is ans she's going to defeat Trump
Look, the only one who had beaten Trump before is President Biden, we are in the battle of the soul of this nation… this is the difficult time, but nothing is beyond our capacity when we act together… We just need to remember who we are.
🤔
Not sure what some of this meant but I did think it was hilarious that per Marist, Biden's approval rating is now 46%, the highest since Feb of 2023:
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/wp-content/uploads/2024/08/NPR_PBS-News_Marist-Poll_USA-NOS-and-Tables_486202408050954.pdf
I haven’t seen that poll, but a big slice of the the “don’t approve” number for Biden arose out of his insistence on running again rather than out of his performance
Just like LBJ. Repeat.