As I sort through more and more data about Tuesday’s election, one thing is coming into very clear focus: This was a total and comprehensive victory by Donald Trump — one that should strike fear in the hearts of Democrats as they begin to assess what went wrong.
This chart, from the Financial Times, tells that story in stark terms:
Yes, you are reading that right: Trump improved on his 2020 showing in 48 of the 50 states. And in many heavily Democratic states — California, New York, Illinois — he improved by LARGE numbers.
New Jersey is the one that shocked me most. In 2020, Trump lost the Garden State by 16 points (57%-41%) to Joe Biden. On Tuesday Trump came within 5 points of beating Harris (51.5%-46.5%). An 11-point improvement in four years!
And, if you go even more local, the numbers are equally eye-popping. This, from my friend Derek Thompson at The Atlantic, is remarkable:
This is a moment of soul-searching for urban progressives. Chicago, Houston, and Dallas shifted ~10 points right vs '20. Miami moved 19 pts right. Queens 21 pts right. The Bronx: 22 pts.
This wasn’t just Trump running it up in rural counties — although he absolutely did that. He over-performed in the suburbs. In the cities. In blue states. In red states. Everywhere.
Which tells us two things:
Trumpian populism cuts across traditional party lines in a very powerful way
Democrats have a massive brand problem — even in places, like big cities, that were long considered strongholds for them
Obviously I will be on top of BOTH of those stories as we move beyond this election and into the 2nd Trump term.
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