106 Comments

I stand by something I wrote yesterday.

1) I think that racism and misogyny absolutely did play a part in this result.

2) Number one above having been said, they are NOT the only reasons why VP Harris lost. To simply dismiss the result as being due only to racism and misogyny as many are doing, or that people don't care about criminality, is overly simplistic. You're not going to get anywhere by simply dismissing half the country and then telling those people that they are racist, sexist idiots. You want to know what happens when you do that? Tuesday happens. The Democrats need to find a way to reach out to the people who supported Trump--and remember, they used to be the base of the Democratic Party--and convince them that the Republicans do not represent their best interests because, like it or not, these voters are the ones who are deciding these elections.

Just my two cents (and yes, I know that my views are almost certainly in the (small) minority among your readers).

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Ian, I don’t think that your analysis puts you in “the small minority of the readers here”, as I think you have good points to make.

I spent yesterday painting (though never my profession, I’ve been an artist my entire life) choosing not to read any politics, just to decompress, and am just today dipping my toe back into the waters.

I think you’re right that it’s simplistic and incorrect to think that Harris’s loss is *only* about racism and misogyny, though I think it played its part with certain demographics. And as one that grew up in a staunchly working class union household, I think you’re also right that the Democrats have lost the working class. Only Dems are union-centric, but given how weak unions have become in general, I think you’re correct that we need to find better ways to speak to working class issues.

Thanks for your perspective.

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I think the proof will be in the product. Once the "new car" smell wears off of Trump 2024, his retribution policies become identified, his Project 25 takes shape, and many months after his tariffs are in place, let's evaluate where he's at.

The idea that he will put into place "friends" who have no experience in handling health issues like RFK, Jr., sounds ill-fated.

I believe this man is a snake oil salesman with the gift of "repetition." He can take lies (Jan.6 was a lie, Covid will go away soon, I alone will save the world in a day, etc.) and turn them into his truth.

We'll see if he's the "miracle man" like his Pied Piper of Followers believe he is.

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This alone scares the hell out of me!

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Somewhat agree, but I think there’s a lot going on in what you label a “brand problem.” Both parties lack the kind of policy basis they used to have, back in the last century, for example. Earlier in this century, it was the dwindling coattails of policy. The only discernible Trump policy last time - and it seems to be about the same this time - is Other Guy Bad, Me Good, Me Undo What Other Guy Did. And the crowds go along with it, because he’s their guy. There doesn’t seem to be the capacity or the appetite for a nuanced educated view on anything, and suggestions that things are complicated and should be studied carefully are met with scoffs and more name-calling. It’s a mess!

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I agree. I always remember Trump’s words,”I love the poor and uneducated.”

Well, when these same folks get their programs and benefits cut perhaps it will dawn on them that they have been conned.

“There are none so blind as those who cannot see.”

It is sickening!

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It's a lot easier and more effective to run against something than for something. The two times Trump won he was running against the Dem establishment. When Biden won in 2020 it was easy for Dems to run against Trump. They had his immediate record to look at. Now, people were looking at their current situation and enough decided they were better under Trump. Still, we are almost evenly divided. It only takes a relative few to move in one direction to make it look like a landslide.

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Agreed. The kind of thing I was thinking about with Trump’s actions is that he runs on, for example, ObamaCare sucks, and then wants to get rid of it, and has nothing to put in place. If Obama had environmental controls, get rid of them, and on and on. So now, he says economy sucks, and the action step appears to be to gut anything Biden did for the economy. There is no nuance, and I don’t think the Dems did a better job articulating the issue either. Kamala tried, but didn’t do enough or have a long enough runway. Multiple things can be true at once… the economy is fairly strong, especially when considered in the context of the world recovering from a global pandemic; individuals experience painfully high prices. Those prices are not directly correlated with inflation and job growth. Biden was defensive about his numbers, Kamala got tied to Biden and didn’t have a strong enough/long enough voice to articulate in a simple way how to address the pricing/price gouging aspect. All while the drumbeat easy messaging Biden Economy Sucks, I’ll Do Tariffs and They Will Pay pounded on everywhere. The easy message becomes the driving force, even when there’s nothing likely to work as a structure behind it. And where you’re right that it’s easier to run against something … I guess that’s always the incumbency problem. 🤷🏻‍♀️

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The American people have spoken very loudly and very clearly. You may choose it ignore it but the stark reality is that the Dems put up and awful ticket and people noticed and voted in large numbers away from them and more importantly these disastrous last four years. It’s undeniable.

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Or have the people bought into a lot of lies from MAGA. What happens when all the people that think he is their savior realize he's the wizard behind the purple curtain?

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You know Jodi, we all saw that the first time Trump was president. He did not do any of the things he promised his masses. Yet now he promises the same undone things and they still believe him. I can guarantee he will not build a wall, bring down the price of Cheerios or replace Obamacare with something better. But still his voters think he will and Elon Musk on Twitter will help convince them all these great things are happening. I’m not sure what Democrats can do at this point.

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You can call it what you want. But, one ticket dominated the other. Something to be said for that and acknowledged.

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You are proving my point, beautifully.

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Well, there are winners and there are losers. I’ll be in DC on Inauguration Day, you??

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What is your definition of a loser? It seems to go beyond the election, more towards how you want justice/revenge on those who don't agree with your narrow viewpoint on how this country should be run with an iron fist instead of messy democracy.

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Loser = Harris/Walz ticket

Winner = Trump/Vance

It’s really very simple.

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Amazing how simple the world is for you. Spoiler alert: it’s *far* more complex than you seem willing to understand.

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Democrats are still getting elected lol. Nothing will

Pass unless democrats and Republicans collaborate.

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Yeah, as long as the Senate filibuster remains in place and gives the minority party the means to restrain the will of a narrow majority.

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14 hrs ago·edited 14 hrs ago

Liberal Democrat Richie Torres -- wish he was MY rep -- points to the source of the Democrats' branding problem:

Donald Trump has no greater friend than the far left, which has managed to alienate historic numbers of Latinos, Blacks, Asians, and Jews from the Democratic Party with absurdities like “Defund the Police” or “From the River to the Sea” or “Latinx.”

https://x.com/RitchieTorres/status/1854193086756171879

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Yes!!!! I read this as well. Richie Torres is amazing. Big fan of his.

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I don’t think it’s the far left that’s the issue. It’s a news cycle that’s dominated by Democrats defending individual rights and not focusing in on pocket book issues. Britain’s right wing Thatcher understood this in the 1970’s. She eventually lost power when she forgot this concept and took away people’s right to vote.

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Would it be fair to say that, according to you and the chart, saying that Trump overall did better in 2024 than 2016 (and, hence, the country moving more to the right) that, even after 7+ years, the country knows Trump a heck of a lot better than ever and is STILL okay with his vitriol, his racism, misogyny and lies, and comfortable with him in command of our government and nuclear codes? As much as I hate suggesting this, should we admit finally that as a country–at least according to this election's majority– we are far more xenophobic, racist and world-view myopic than we care to admit? I hope to heck I'm wrong and truly want to be convinced otherwise, but given the recent events and other factors like the large numbers of black and Latino votes for the right.....

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Look, the Dems won't be winning elections anytime soon if their main takeway from this is that everyone who didn't vote for them is racist, xenophobic and myopic. That narrative is just a bit too convenient and comforting to their sense of moral superiority.

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It’s the economy stupid!

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This statement gets to a basic truth. Americans who can’t afford gas and eggs don’t care about DEI. It’s actually a red herring which Trump’s base may rave about, and gets media time but focusing on this rather than bringing down costs just wastes an opportunity to get to the point. To improve those things on Americans hierarchy of needs.

Harris had some ideas here, such as helping to fund first time home owners, but it wasn’t enough, and wasn’t well communicated.

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OK I get that 13 million people hate the price of gas and eggs, and so didn't vote for Harris because the prices were so much better in 2020. But then why didn't they vote for Trump? Why did they stay away altogether? Trump got FEWER voters than in 2020.

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There’s always going to be Americans who don’t vote. The double haters who don’t like any candidate, those who are just too busy trying to make a living. But clearly this time there were a bunch of folks who voted for Trump because they don’t have loyalty to a particular party anymore. There is increased mobility between the two based on hope that the one they choose will actually do something.

If Trump focuses on retribution rather than the lowering the price of eggs in the next 100 days, his movement will disappear.

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Well already I see a WaPo lede: "President-elect Donald Trump and a unified GOP Congress are poised to remake the country’s tax code with major benefits for corporations and the upper class." Stuff like that ain't gonna lower egg prices.

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He was always going to pay back his billionaire funders. But if he forgets everyday Americans who are in a financial crisis he’ll lose this new found popularity very quickly.

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People have had enough of woke intersectionality. There’s a reason Trump spent more money on the trans ad than any other. This will keep happening until the Democratic Party returns to the mainstream.

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When it comes to numbers what I want to know is who are the voters in 2020 who didn’t show up in 2024? I think at last look the total difference was something like 10 million less voters in 2024. People were motivated in 2020 to give him the boot but weren’t interested in 2024 in keeping him out. Interesting to say the least….

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It was 13 million less voters for the Democrat. Trump actually got FEWER voters in 2024 (72.6M) than in 2020 (74.2M). And there was no 3rd party candidate. So 13 million Dem voters either stayed home, croaked, or showed up and didn't vote for a President. So it's not like Trump suddenly got so wildly popular; it's that Biden/Harris got so wildly UNpopular. Did the price of eggs really bother 13 million people that much?

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I showed up and didn’t vote for president. 1 down, 12,999,999 more to go to get to the bottom of it!

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At least you're honest about it (if you're telling the truth).

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Why would I lie about this? I’ve been saying for months on here I wasn’t planning to vote for POTUS (unless convinced otherwise).

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It does help explain why voters in 5 states I think it is, voted to support abortion rights by a big margin, yet the man who helped end abortion rights won in those same states.

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How so? I'm not following your logic or correlation, at least with respect to me.

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I get eggs for three bucks a dozen around me! 😂

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$2.19 at Target. Unless you get the pasture-raised large eggs, then it's way more.

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I think it not that they were not interested in “keeping him out” it’s more that they were deeply dissatisfied with the JB administration and when VP Harris said she would change anything people collectively said No way! Can’t do another 4 years of this!

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I actually think Americans were interested in what she said. It just wasn’t enough. They wanted more.

All Trump had to do was convey that he was different. That’s it.

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The MAGA people all voted for Trump, he gained nobody. In fact he lost votes from 2020, I guess they croaked or stayed away. But Biden lost 13 million votes that Harris couldn't get back. My head hurts.

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This is THE Question I want answered Chris. Who are these people? Where do they reside? And why the hell did 10-15 million people air on the sidelines this election?

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I want that answered too. Why did 13 million people who voted in 2020 not vote this time? I can't believe they all croaked. Did they really hate Biden that much? And if it's the economy, stupid (not you), then why didn't they vote for Trump? They hated tariffs as much?

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The people who didn't like Trump or Harris, like me. I imagine they include both Trump and Biden voters from 2020.

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Chris, this is not rocket science. We can stop dancing around the fact that America was not going to put a Black woman in the White House. America has been validated because we elected a Black man twice. All your charts, data point and post mortems about what went wrong will not change the facts. Now let's move on to how we maneuver for the the next four years.

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And don't forget the fact that the black woman was married to a WHITE man. A white JEWISH man no less!

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It’s a Celebration of Criminality! 🎉🎉🎉

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Do you think it was a Trump over performance or a Dem under performance? Trump's popular vote is very close to what he got in 2020. The Dems on the other hand are off by about 13 million votes. Biden got 81 million votes in 2020. Harris sits at about 68 million. Trump's victory seems to be more about the Dems inability to get out the vote. But why?

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2020 was dominated by postal votes because of COVID which encouraged more people to vote in general is one reason, I think. An increase in voters less deferential to Democrats because of high prices is another.

But this change in voting behavior has implications for Trump too. More fixing of Americans problems and less nonsense will help his movement to stay in power.

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In 2020 Trump received 74.2 million votes. This year he received 72.3 million (at least to this point). The difference between 2020 and 2024 is the 13 million votes that Biden received and Harris didn’t. Obviously this will shift the percentages significantly.

I’m not quite sure what to make of this. But I don’t think it suggests that Trump is winning hearts and minds, that Trumpism is sustainable, or that a new coalition is in the making.

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Why did voters in almost every state move away from the Democratic coalition? What can we do as a party to change that trend going forward? Let's look at political perceptions and the math.

1) Democrats are perceived to be anti-Christian. Since about 65% of voters identify as Christian, that reduces Democratic chances to win national elections. As a party, we need to learn how to support women's rights and other social issues without coming across as anti-Christian.

2) Democrats are perceived to be anti-white. Since about 60% of voters identify as white, that reduces Democratic chances of winning national elections. We need to learn how to be anti-racist without coming across as anti-white.

3) Democrats are perceived to be elitist and oblivious to the concerns of working class folks. Since about 62% of voters don't have a college degree, that reduces Democratic chances of winning national elections. We need to learn how to listen to and respect the opinions blue collar workers. Period.

Of course these perceptions aren't always fair, and voting decisions are more complex and nuanced than the simple identity politics outlined here. But I think that, as a party, we ignore demographics at our peril.

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founding

I don’t like Trump, but a big win like Tuesday certainly says something about his campaign , the state or our republic, and of course about the elitist Democratic Party. I certainly hope a true “autopsy “ is done by dem leaders focused on what Dems can do differently and better rather than just complaining about Trump and his misinformation and character

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Agree Chris. The movement in California!, New York, New Jersey, Illinois and Connecticut is truly stunning. Apart from Cali, note, these are NE region states, all traditionally blue strong holds. This was more than just a protest joke against JB. The political landscape in the USA has changed.

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Democrats are seen as the party of "big government", it seems that a large swath of the populace has lost faith that government can solve our problems and that it might be worth it to hand power to a dictator who will just "fix everything". The irony is that Trump will allow 'private power' (corporations, Elon Musk and his mother etc.) to set the agenda and reap the rewards. Welcome to "Grift Nation".

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10 million less people voted in this election...I think this contributes to the shift...that chart is a data point, how does it compare to the last 50 years, The US isn't ready for a woman president, that much is apparent. More analysis needs to be done to really understand why the shift. I refuse to believe the majority of americans have suddenly decided to embrace criminality, sexual deviency, and lies.

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12 hrs ago·edited 10 hrs ago

This was going to be my point as well. It is a powerful chart. It is important to see %s of the voters who turned out. But I would also like to see that same chart in raw numbers. Because big, big picture, it appears Trump successfully copy-pasted 2020 whereas an awful lot of liberals chose to sit this one out. I also don't think the entire population shifted this much, just the electorate, which of course are not the same groups of people.

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