On the other hand, you can't win if you don't play. And if you stop trying, you end up in a situation that becomes (or seems) hopeless. We now run campaigns for month and years and spend billions of dollars. Millions need to be spent to defend the deserving incumbent public servants, leaving nothing left for other worthy challengers. This is another broken process that has become a huge moneymaking industry in itself. Unfortunately we seem to be unable to deal constructively with any of the many problems we have. That sets up a scenario where a corrupt, ludicrous imbecile who says he can swoop in and fix everything "quickly" is attractive to millions. Send what you can to these deserving candidates.
I hope that the complainers you mentioned are donating directly to the Democrats running for Senate in FL & TX because that's probably the best way to ensure the $ is at least supporting the right candidates.
Perfectly said on both accounts - Texas is ALWAYS 2 years away from being 2 years away - I'm gonna use this phrasing moving forward....
And.....most recent Texas Tribune Poll had Allred +1, but Cruz w/in the margin of error. To use a poker phrase - I agree - time to push all the chips in. Last time around, Dems had an empty suit in Beto O'Rourke.....but this time is different - Allread has real chops and people actually like him.
Newly minted Texas resident - I want to believe otherwise, but my experience here in west Texas is exactly what you say. Sigh. My only hope is that all the transplants aren't quite so predictable!
Ya.....while you can get some relief from the red in major metro areas, such as Dallas where I live, it's Ruby Red out West. There will never be enough transplants to override that red.
My favorite part of West Texas is that I pass through there on the way to Colorado or New Mexico! They call it God's Country, but in my mind it's more like - God's Forgotten Country - sparse, desolate and extremes of hot and cold weather.
Lot of old school oil money and deep seated chrisitan conservatism out there. Best of Luck!
Rick Scott won by less than one-half point here in 2018. Dems are energized, and have put up a decent female candidate (women will be the deciders in 2024). If the DNC 'invests' anything in Florida, it could tip the scales ... all we need is 11,780 votes (more than what put Scott in office).
In fairness, it doesn't always make a ton of sense to telegraph how much you are committing. The GOP is going to have to wait and see how much air-time gets reserved, or deduce how much GOTV money is funneling in. The hope is that you can either get them to over or under commit resources to the state. At the same time, the announcement that any money is flowing in from national sources at all is usually a fundraising boos for the statewide candidate. It also boosts morale for Dems in the state. You can get a small bump without doing much of anything (and it can also pay for some more internal polls and focus grouping to get a better picture of what is happening on the ground in a race that hasn't been widely polled.) You can put in a "multi-million dollar" investment, and then step it up when you see the next set of polls. You don't need to tell the other team in advance how much you are committing. It can be a feint or a head-fake.
FWIW, I think Montana is already over-saturated with advertising in the Tester/Sheehy race. Like it's probably 50% of the snail mail in my mailbox every day for the past 3 or 4 months, and I can't watch any YouTube videos or play a mobile app game without seeing *multiple* ads for and against these two candidates. It's way beyond annoying. I suspect Montana advertising in the Senate race has passed the point of diminishing returns.
There's a fair amount of physical mail advertising for the two state Supreme Court races, too. But very little advertising for anything else, even though we've got lots of statewide races and legislative districts on the ballot, and some important ballot initiatives (changing the structure of primary elections, and adding abortion provisions to the constitution).
Anecdotally, it feels like people are less enthusiastic in general about the election, with way less than the normal number of yard signs, for instance.
I do live in Missoula, which is by far the most liberal urban area of Montana.
Well it is football season, and in Florida and Texas particularly there are a lot of football fans, and they watch football live with commercials. I think it’s more effective now than at other times of year.
What a sad commentary on our politics that $ is the answer to almost all questions. In the cold war against democracy, Citizens United was perhaps the first key battle lost. As to the States in question, both Cruz & Scott are unpopular. In Florida, there are two ballot initiatives- pot and reproductive rights- that could spur D turnout. So, yes, I'm saying there's a chance.
I get emails from the Dem. U.S. Senate candidate in Nebraska saying he's in a very competitive race. Does he have any chance? Would certainly be A LOT cheaper advertising market if there any real chance.
The Republicans ability to keep overlooking character in their candidates just amazes me.
Yeah, as much as I want to hope/believe that Ted Cruz might lose, I will believe it when I see it. Not a lot of faith in Texas!
A “maybe” is worth an investment. We’ll see what happens. Outstanding candidates opposing the crazy in both places.
Absolutely. The question is how MUCH of an investment. A few million in a state as big as TX or FL doesn't make a dent.
Go big or go home!
On the other hand, you can't win if you don't play. And if you stop trying, you end up in a situation that becomes (or seems) hopeless. We now run campaigns for month and years and spend billions of dollars. Millions need to be spent to defend the deserving incumbent public servants, leaving nothing left for other worthy challengers. This is another broken process that has become a huge moneymaking industry in itself. Unfortunately we seem to be unable to deal constructively with any of the many problems we have. That sets up a scenario where a corrupt, ludicrous imbecile who says he can swoop in and fix everything "quickly" is attractive to millions. Send what you can to these deserving candidates.
I hope that the complainers you mentioned are donating directly to the Democrats running for Senate in FL & TX because that's probably the best way to ensure the $ is at least supporting the right candidates.
Chris said exactly what I was thinking. This feels like them saying, "Well we tried!"
Though if they see any more polls out showing Allred actually ahead, then you gotta go for it.
Perfectly said on both accounts - Texas is ALWAYS 2 years away from being 2 years away - I'm gonna use this phrasing moving forward....
And.....most recent Texas Tribune Poll had Allred +1, but Cruz w/in the margin of error. To use a poker phrase - I agree - time to push all the chips in. Last time around, Dems had an empty suit in Beto O'Rourke.....but this time is different - Allread has real chops and people actually like him.
I'm From Texas, But Not Texan.....
I think I've seen this film before.....
If it's one thing that you can rely upon from Texas, it's uninformed voters making decisions that run counter to their best interests.
I've been watching this for nearly 40 years now.
Color me skeptical....
Texas is perennially two years away from being two years away
Newly minted Texas resident - I want to believe otherwise, but my experience here in west Texas is exactly what you say. Sigh. My only hope is that all the transplants aren't quite so predictable!
Ya.....while you can get some relief from the red in major metro areas, such as Dallas where I live, it's Ruby Red out West. There will never be enough transplants to override that red.
My favorite part of West Texas is that I pass through there on the way to Colorado or New Mexico! They call it God's Country, but in my mind it's more like - God's Forgotten Country - sparse, desolate and extremes of hot and cold weather.
Lot of old school oil money and deep seated chrisitan conservatism out there. Best of Luck!
Rick Scott won by less than one-half point here in 2018. Dems are energized, and have put up a decent female candidate (women will be the deciders in 2024). If the DNC 'invests' anything in Florida, it could tip the scales ... all we need is 11,780 votes (more than what put Scott in office).
I always liked Jon Tester. The Senate will be a poorer place for his absence.
In fairness, it doesn't always make a ton of sense to telegraph how much you are committing. The GOP is going to have to wait and see how much air-time gets reserved, or deduce how much GOTV money is funneling in. The hope is that you can either get them to over or under commit resources to the state. At the same time, the announcement that any money is flowing in from national sources at all is usually a fundraising boos for the statewide candidate. It also boosts morale for Dems in the state. You can get a small bump without doing much of anything (and it can also pay for some more internal polls and focus grouping to get a better picture of what is happening on the ground in a race that hasn't been widely polled.) You can put in a "multi-million dollar" investment, and then step it up when you see the next set of polls. You don't need to tell the other team in advance how much you are committing. It can be a feint or a head-fake.
FWIW, I think Montana is already over-saturated with advertising in the Tester/Sheehy race. Like it's probably 50% of the snail mail in my mailbox every day for the past 3 or 4 months, and I can't watch any YouTube videos or play a mobile app game without seeing *multiple* ads for and against these two candidates. It's way beyond annoying. I suspect Montana advertising in the Senate race has passed the point of diminishing returns.
There's a fair amount of physical mail advertising for the two state Supreme Court races, too. But very little advertising for anything else, even though we've got lots of statewide races and legislative districts on the ballot, and some important ballot initiatives (changing the structure of primary elections, and adding abortion provisions to the constitution).
Anecdotally, it feels like people are less enthusiastic in general about the election, with way less than the normal number of yard signs, for instance.
I do live in Missoula, which is by far the most liberal urban area of Montana.
Dare we dream of a world where Ted Cruz AND Rick Scott both lose!? "That was just a dream, dream, dream."
No
BTW, I question how effective TV ad spending is. I know few people who watch broadcast TV and fewer still who watch commercials as they FF on DVRs
Well it is football season, and in Florida and Texas particularly there are a lot of football fans, and they watch football live with commercials. I think it’s more effective now than at other times of year.
Fair point.
What a sad commentary on our politics that $ is the answer to almost all questions. In the cold war against democracy, Citizens United was perhaps the first key battle lost. As to the States in question, both Cruz & Scott are unpopular. In Florida, there are two ballot initiatives- pot and reproductive rights- that could spur D turnout. So, yes, I'm saying there's a chance.
I get emails from the Dem. U.S. Senate candidate in Nebraska saying he's in a very competitive race. Does he have any chance? Would certainly be A LOT cheaper advertising market if there any real chance.
Wayne let me dig into that a bit and write something. Thanks for the idea!