With much fanfare, the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee announced on Thursday that they will make a “multi-million dollar” investment on TV ads in Florida and Texas.
“Senate Democrats are expanding the map and going on offense,” said Michigan Sen. Gary Peters, who runs the Senate campaign operation. “All cycle long the DSCC has been preparing to take advantage of Sens. Cruz and Scott’s damaged standings in their states – and now our efforts in Texas and Florida are accelerating.”
To which I say: Maybe.
Two things are true here:
Polling suggests Democratic challengers are running competitively with Ted Cruz and Rick Scott
It is going to take many millions of dollars to beat them.
Is Peters committing to spending $20-$30 million on TV ads to beat either Cruz or Scott? He is not. Remember that “multi-million” just means “at least $2 million.” If Peters could announce a $20 million ad buy against, say, Cruz, he would!
What’s really going on here? My strong sense is that national Democrats are feeling the pressure of the Montana Senate race slipping away. Sen. Jon Tester has always had a tough road given the GOP lean of his state but that race appears to be headed in the wrong direction for Democrats.
Couple the certain seat loss in West Virginia with the declining situation in Montana and Republicans would have the majority in 2025 — no matter who gets elected president in November.
The desire to, uh, do something then is strong on the Democratic side. And that “something” is find a state or states where they can play offense. Florida and Texas are the only options. Hence the announcement this morning.
Unless and until national Democrats put real numbers — $10+ million — behind an ad campaign in either state, however, I think this spending is more about their own PR than it is about beating Cruz or Scott.
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The Morning: Are Texas and Florida really in play?