Donald Trump is the next president of the United States, the first chief executive since Grover Cleveland to be elected to two nonconsecutive terms. And he won the office in sweeping and convincing fashion.
Trump looks poised to win every one of the seven swing states. Georgia, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have already been called for him. He leads in Arizona, Nevada and Michigan. He will end up with 312 electoral votes unless the vote count in those states changes drastically.
He looks very likely to win the popular vote as well — although that will continue to narrow as results from California filter in.
And it’s not just a single victory. It looks to me — and obviously it’s early — like Trump has fundamentally reshaped the two parties’ electoral coalitions.
I am still going through the exit polls — MUCH more on that later — but here are two numbers that JUMP out at me.
Here’s the Hispanic vote in 2024 vs 2020:
2024: Harris 53%, Trump 45% (Harris +8)
2020: Biden 65%, Trump 33% (Biden +33)
And here’s the 18-29 year old vote:
2024: Harris 55%, Trump 42% (Harris +13)
2020: Biden 60%, Trump 36% (Biden +24)
Those are SEISMIC shifts. And throw our previous assumptions about who votes for who into chaos.
Republicans will also control the Senate with pickups in West Virginia, Montana and Ohio. Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, Arizona and Pennsylvania are all too close to call at the moment.
The House will take longer to call — and appears likely to be very close.
MUCH more all day and in the coming days.
We are in the midst of an absolute upheaval in the established political order. Now more than ever the work I am doing matters. I hope you will consider investing in me today.
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