The Morning: How high can Kamala Harris go?

Vice President Kamala Harris’ polling surge is undeniable. She is, in most national surveys, now leading former president Donald Trump.

The real question then isn’t if she’s ahead, it’s how much higher can she go in the polling before she hits her ceiling?

The best way to answer that — I think — is to look at where the polling was in 2016 and 2020. So, let’s do that.

Here’s the 2016 polling average via 538:

And here it is for 2020:

So, both Hillary Clinton in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 had larger leads in national polling than Harris does today.

Which suggests two things to me:

1. Harris still has room to grow nationally

2. Clinton and Biden BOTH underperformed their national poll leads at the ballot box, meaning that Harris likely needs to lead by more than 2-3 points nationally to win the electoral college.

I break it all down in today’s edition of The Morning.

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