good analysis, but a few major points not addressed.
In 2016, EVERYTHING got thrown away in the last 2 weeks after the Comey announcement that they had re-opened the Anthony Wiener laptop investigation. Polling isn't as quick and nimble when it comes to major breaking news and their influence on the electorate. That Friday afternoon, Comey cost Hillary the election. As I've read often, the convergence of those factors on that week were just pure luck DonOld. If the election had been held the week before, and possibly the week after, Hillary very well could be completing the last year of her second term. Trump won because of a few thousand votes in a few critical states.
Just as Trump got lucky in 2016, he got unlucky in 2020. His getting Covid a few weeks before the election, and shoving ACB through the senate onto the court was just enough to push Biden over the finish line. Once again, by thousands of votes cast out of millions.
The piece that I think is missing is the phenomenal rise of Kamala. Not the fact that she is 2-4 points ahead in both national and swing states, but the huge swing that she has made in just 3 weeks. We've NEVER had a new candidate just parachute in less than 100 days before an election. Never, as in never.
Polling is a great predictor of trends, not actual votes. The trend lines are all heading blue. We all know it will not continue to rise forever, but we do know that DonOld will never change his tune. His reptilian brain only knows one song and he is going to replay the golden oldie until November 5th.
I wish you would post the segment Jon Stewart played on Monday night. It was fabulous! Trumpf making the exact same dire predictions that he made about Biden, just 4 years later. Almost word for word, just insert Kamala where he said Biden 4 years ago.
I think enough folks are sick and tired of being sick and tired. The trump show has lost its luster to enough folks to make a difference. I hope.
Question Chris. Is this a 2016/2020 election, or do we need to look to 2008/2012? Is this an Obama style election with the enthusiasm we see? And how low can Trump's numbers fall?
Harris has generated huge enthusiasm in her base (more on that here later today).
The question is whether she can sustain it for 80+ more days.
As for Trump's numbers, I don't think they really will move. I think people who are for him are going to be for him no matter what. But, that's not a majority.
Big picture: Harris's numbers are rising&Trump's campaign has fallen( &it can't get up). Yes, she has room to grow. Silver makes the point that the relationship between National polling &the EC may be changing b/c margins in some Blue states are more narrow (eg, NY and NJ) & margins in some Red states are wider (e.g., Fla). If so, Harris can win w/ a smaller National lead. In any event, the Swing States are the focal point, &in the most recent polling she was up 4 points in Blue Wall States( WI, MI, PA). BTW, Chris, good subscriber management in posting a rosier view of Harris today. As Paul Simon said, got to keep the customer satisfied (at least sometimes).
Harris will continue to grow as long as the Cult leader keep reminding the American people why he was voted out in 2020. Why would America vote for the oldest man (Trump is 78 yrs old) to ever run for the office who is also a convicted felon and an insurrectionist who was impeached twice.His opponent on the other hand is a younger. intelligent , vibrant and polished Woman. The sky is her( Harris) limit
As a nervous anti-Trumper, I don't understand how after three weeks of almost non-stop great press coverage, against an opponent who's clearly not fit for any other role besides reality show host, her lead isn't larger. For three straight elections, we've all been convinced that Trump's numbers are going to suddenly collapse. And while he clearly he has a ceiling, he has a relatively stable floor, too. I'm not a hard-core leftie, and I've grown a little disenchanted with some Dem positions, but if I ever vote "R," it's not going to be now. Is it like Bill Clinton during the Lewinsky scandal, where the attacks on someone become so harsh that there's a "rally round the flag" effect?
The large majority of people have already made up their minds lest you receive 100's of DMs now trying to win you over as a possibley undecided actual voter! Much of Kamala's support is a mirage- like all the first time donors she inspired. They didn't mention first time this cycle, not forever and they were Dems who gave before but refused to give with Biden sure to lose and obviously unsound.
It’s great that people are feeling so hopeful about Kamala, but we cannot be complacent. There’s still a substantial chance Trump could win. We won’t change Trump supporters, but we can try to convince anyone “on the fence” to vote Democratic. 40 million REGISTERED DEMOCRATS did not bother to vote in 2016, which is why Trump won. So we must contact people we know in swing states who are undecided, Democrats who often don’t bother to vote, or Independents. (I know people in the Mid-west (Covid deniers, SMH) who want to vote for RFK Jr. - I’m going to politely explain that could send their swing state to Trump.)
Also, if Trump does win, we’ll lose the Senate. (As the White House goes, so goes the Senate.) So it’s important to elect more Democrats to the House – the House is a protective firewall. OATH does a great job of identifying races where donations will be most effective. And if you donate thru Oath, they protect your privacy - you won’t be bombarded by subsequent messages from candidates you’ve donated to. https://app.oath.vote?ref=ZEI3HZQZ&p=f4d-house - Oath is a wonderful site, they let you specify issues near and dear to your heart – stopping Trump, abortion access, LGBTQ rights, and so on – and they show you which candidates would benefit most from your donations. They only recommend promising, yet under-funded candidates. Meaning, those who’ve already raised plenty of money won’t really benefit from your donation. This is a much more effective way to donate.
Although 538 correctly predicted 2020's Biden's popular vote share as compared to the actual 51.8/51.3%, it badly underestimated Trump's 43.4/46.8%, a +3.4% error, reducing Biden's true spread to 4.5% (51.3/46.8). All of which resulted in a much tighter election than predicted by national polling.
The question is: how much, if any, are the polls underestimating Trump's support for this cycle.? If they are off as much as 2020, then today Harris would be at best tied and at worst behind Trump by 1-2 points.
I think, in previous election cycles involving Trump, people responding to polls were hesitant to tell the pollster that they were thinking *seriously* about voting for Trump, for what were a variety of reasons (embarrassment at what Trump says, how he treats people, his childish namecalling, etc). At least, that was the pollsters’ justification for being off, in hindsight.
At this point, I don’t think that any of Trump’s diehard fans would hesitate for a *minute* to tell a pollster they’re voting for Trump, so I’m questioning if there is, currently, *any* reason to believe that Trump will “outperform” the polling THIS time. Other than the obvious margin-of-error issues, I think his vote totals will virtually match the polling.
And I fully expect, with the Democratic convention coming up, that the Harris-Walz ticket will continue to do better in the polls and will win in November (hopefully, by a landslide, but a victory will be a victory. The landslide would just make it harder for Trump and his minions to say the “election was stolen”…)
For whatever reason, Trump has a history of outperforming his poll numbers. By a LOT. That is a big concern heading into November. How big of a lead does KH need to be "safely" ahead? Who knows.
When you are the worst, you can only get better. Trump owns and knows his audience's data- Harris just started collecting it. Harris/Biden/Walz has a couple events they finally turned hardcore Democrats out to and the programmed media is like Triumph! No. It's not. We got X number of people to contribute for the FIRST time! They don't tell you, they mean the first time THIS cycle. They are hardcore Democrats who refused to give money to Biden Harris and relented when anything slightly changed. Again, not a triumph but clawing their way back to where they are supposed to be anyway. And when they get there they will be facing the facts, Harris ef'd the border, produced record inflation and has done nothing the years she has been VP except make it all worse. Remember inside of every triumph is a Trump.
Love The Morning, Chris. Are you or any readers playing fantasy soccer this year? If so, I’ll start a So What mini league! Would be a nice distraction for, say, October/november.
All set! You and other readers need to click on the below link, then create a team, and away we go! I’ve invited Reginald the Monkey to join, but he’s busy prepping to host the Sept 10 debate.
good analysis, but a few major points not addressed.
In 2016, EVERYTHING got thrown away in the last 2 weeks after the Comey announcement that they had re-opened the Anthony Wiener laptop investigation. Polling isn't as quick and nimble when it comes to major breaking news and their influence on the electorate. That Friday afternoon, Comey cost Hillary the election. As I've read often, the convergence of those factors on that week were just pure luck DonOld. If the election had been held the week before, and possibly the week after, Hillary very well could be completing the last year of her second term. Trump won because of a few thousand votes in a few critical states.
Just as Trump got lucky in 2016, he got unlucky in 2020. His getting Covid a few weeks before the election, and shoving ACB through the senate onto the court was just enough to push Biden over the finish line. Once again, by thousands of votes cast out of millions.
The piece that I think is missing is the phenomenal rise of Kamala. Not the fact that she is 2-4 points ahead in both national and swing states, but the huge swing that she has made in just 3 weeks. We've NEVER had a new candidate just parachute in less than 100 days before an election. Never, as in never.
Polling is a great predictor of trends, not actual votes. The trend lines are all heading blue. We all know it will not continue to rise forever, but we do know that DonOld will never change his tune. His reptilian brain only knows one song and he is going to replay the golden oldie until November 5th.
I wish you would post the segment Jon Stewart played on Monday night. It was fabulous! Trumpf making the exact same dire predictions that he made about Biden, just 4 years later. Almost word for word, just insert Kamala where he said Biden 4 years ago.
I think enough folks are sick and tired of being sick and tired. The trump show has lost its luster to enough folks to make a difference. I hope.
Question Chris. Is this a 2016/2020 election, or do we need to look to 2008/2012? Is this an Obama style election with the enthusiasm we see? And how low can Trump's numbers fall?
Thanks as always!
Don,
I am not sure yet!
Harris has generated huge enthusiasm in her base (more on that here later today).
The question is whether she can sustain it for 80+ more days.
As for Trump's numbers, I don't think they really will move. I think people who are for him are going to be for him no matter what. But, that's not a majority.
Best,
Chris
Big picture: Harris's numbers are rising&Trump's campaign has fallen( &it can't get up). Yes, she has room to grow. Silver makes the point that the relationship between National polling &the EC may be changing b/c margins in some Blue states are more narrow (eg, NY and NJ) & margins in some Red states are wider (e.g., Fla). If so, Harris can win w/ a smaller National lead. In any event, the Swing States are the focal point, &in the most recent polling she was up 4 points in Blue Wall States( WI, MI, PA). BTW, Chris, good subscriber management in posting a rosier view of Harris today. As Paul Simon said, got to keep the customer satisfied (at least sometimes).
In other words Cillizza, thank you for gaslighting. Sometimes reality leaks out and you have to jackboot it back down in the gulag.
I neither endorse nor understand the “gaslight” reference in the context of the post at issue or my comment.
Harris will continue to grow as long as the Cult leader keep reminding the American people why he was voted out in 2020. Why would America vote for the oldest man (Trump is 78 yrs old) to ever run for the office who is also a convicted felon and an insurrectionist who was impeached twice.His opponent on the other hand is a younger. intelligent , vibrant and polished Woman. The sky is her( Harris) limit
As a nervous anti-Trumper, I don't understand how after three weeks of almost non-stop great press coverage, against an opponent who's clearly not fit for any other role besides reality show host, her lead isn't larger. For three straight elections, we've all been convinced that Trump's numbers are going to suddenly collapse. And while he clearly he has a ceiling, he has a relatively stable floor, too. I'm not a hard-core leftie, and I've grown a little disenchanted with some Dem positions, but if I ever vote "R," it's not going to be now. Is it like Bill Clinton during the Lewinsky scandal, where the attacks on someone become so harsh that there's a "rally round the flag" effect?
The large majority of people have already made up their minds lest you receive 100's of DMs now trying to win you over as a possibley undecided actual voter! Much of Kamala's support is a mirage- like all the first time donors she inspired. They didn't mention first time this cycle, not forever and they were Dems who gave before but refused to give with Biden sure to lose and obviously unsound.
It’s great that people are feeling so hopeful about Kamala, but we cannot be complacent. There’s still a substantial chance Trump could win. We won’t change Trump supporters, but we can try to convince anyone “on the fence” to vote Democratic. 40 million REGISTERED DEMOCRATS did not bother to vote in 2016, which is why Trump won. So we must contact people we know in swing states who are undecided, Democrats who often don’t bother to vote, or Independents. (I know people in the Mid-west (Covid deniers, SMH) who want to vote for RFK Jr. - I’m going to politely explain that could send their swing state to Trump.)
Also, if Trump does win, we’ll lose the Senate. (As the White House goes, so goes the Senate.) So it’s important to elect more Democrats to the House – the House is a protective firewall. OATH does a great job of identifying races where donations will be most effective. And if you donate thru Oath, they protect your privacy - you won’t be bombarded by subsequent messages from candidates you’ve donated to. https://app.oath.vote?ref=ZEI3HZQZ&p=f4d-house - Oath is a wonderful site, they let you specify issues near and dear to your heart – stopping Trump, abortion access, LGBTQ rights, and so on – and they show you which candidates would benefit most from your donations. They only recommend promising, yet under-funded candidates. Meaning, those who’ve already raised plenty of money won’t really benefit from your donation. This is a much more effective way to donate.
Although 538 correctly predicted 2020's Biden's popular vote share as compared to the actual 51.8/51.3%, it badly underestimated Trump's 43.4/46.8%, a +3.4% error, reducing Biden's true spread to 4.5% (51.3/46.8). All of which resulted in a much tighter election than predicted by national polling.
The question is: how much, if any, are the polls underestimating Trump's support for this cycle.? If they are off as much as 2020, then today Harris would be at best tied and at worst behind Trump by 1-2 points.
I think, in previous election cycles involving Trump, people responding to polls were hesitant to tell the pollster that they were thinking *seriously* about voting for Trump, for what were a variety of reasons (embarrassment at what Trump says, how he treats people, his childish namecalling, etc). At least, that was the pollsters’ justification for being off, in hindsight.
At this point, I don’t think that any of Trump’s diehard fans would hesitate for a *minute* to tell a pollster they’re voting for Trump, so I’m questioning if there is, currently, *any* reason to believe that Trump will “outperform” the polling THIS time. Other than the obvious margin-of-error issues, I think his vote totals will virtually match the polling.
And I fully expect, with the Democratic convention coming up, that the Harris-Walz ticket will continue to do better in the polls and will win in November (hopefully, by a landslide, but a victory will be a victory. The landslide would just make it harder for Trump and his minions to say the “election was stolen”…)
For whatever reason, Trump has a history of outperforming his poll numbers. By a LOT. That is a big concern heading into November. How big of a lead does KH need to be "safely" ahead? Who knows.
When you are the worst, you can only get better. Trump owns and knows his audience's data- Harris just started collecting it. Harris/Biden/Walz has a couple events they finally turned hardcore Democrats out to and the programmed media is like Triumph! No. It's not. We got X number of people to contribute for the FIRST time! They don't tell you, they mean the first time THIS cycle. They are hardcore Democrats who refused to give money to Biden Harris and relented when anything slightly changed. Again, not a triumph but clawing their way back to where they are supposed to be anyway. And when they get there they will be facing the facts, Harris ef'd the border, produced record inflation and has done nothing the years she has been VP except make it all worse. Remember inside of every triumph is a Trump.
Love The Morning, Chris. Are you or any readers playing fantasy soccer this year? If so, I’ll start a So What mini league! Would be a nice distraction for, say, October/november.
I would LOVE to play. Let me know if you start a league!
All set! You and other readers need to click on the below link, then create a team, and away we go! I’ve invited Reginald the Monkey to join, but he’s busy prepping to host the Sept 10 debate.
https://fantasy.premierleague.com/leagues/auto-join/i0wimc
Good one, Brian - am in !