I’m a conservative republican. I changed my registration to democrat because of trumpism. I always vote on issues vice candidates BUT Trump is a facist NOT a republican. The distinction is vast. I’ve never been polled so I’m your outlier. Just how many of us there are is an open question.
I am one of those “Reagan Republicans” who have moved to being independent since Trump came on the scene and have been and will be voting D for as long as he and or his ilk are around. I do hope that the R party will sometime soon go into the wilderness and reinvent itself - again - with more traditional “conservative” principles. Until that happens count me and my vote for D candidates.
I am one of them. Left the party because of Trump. Went back to vote for Haley. Left again after she dropped out. I think most people just refer to this cohort as "Haley voters." We are not all Republicans anymore, but we're not Democrats either. We are indies now in large part. I am voting Harris out of necessity but I am not happy about it. Alas, here we are.
Thank you. Hopefully the Republican Party will right itself after Trump and return to fiscal prudence, social moderation, and patriotism. Strong real Conservative voices are important to our democracy, Trump is no Conservative, and no real Republican.
Thank you also. I hope so too but I really don't think so. I think we're going to need a new moderate, conservative party. Or even a centrist party. But we'll see! Agree, he's no conservative and no real Republican.
For Haley? Part of the reason a bunch of us are voting Harris is not just to be anti Trump but hopefully to let the GOP know that they cannot win with this isolationist stance. TBH, a lot of my vote is on Foreign policy. And though Harris is no Reagan in that regard, she is closer to him than Trump and Vance are. I really worry about NATO with those two in charge. So we suck it up with four years of domestic policy we do not love, but foreign policy that keeps the world order intact, and then hopefully there IS room in the newly reimagined GOP for Nikki Haley and other relative normies like her.
No, for whomever was able to best bridge the partisan divide in what I imagine would have been a very different campaign in which two women candidates felt free to focus on capturing the middle.
Honestly, at this particular point in time, I think that's Harris. We will see if it's all a facade and if it lasts but with her promise to appoint at least one Republican to her cabinet, I am hopeful. Haley is out there with extremely divisive language since she endorsed Trump.
We ALL know former Republicans who bailed on the Party. That number in total has to be in the millions. Even if they just sit out this election it should be enough to get KH across the finish line. Let's hope.
As a self-identified republican, I do not vote the ticket (I have not voted for Trump in the past 2 elections, and will not this year). However, I can not stress enough the importance that like minded people have to retain their party registration so that we are allowed to vote in primaries and get rid of MAGA at the party level.
The Republican Party is so different today than our Father’s or our Grandfather’s Republican Party, I am not sure we can look at past elections as a reliable measuring stick against this election.
Further, in the last two elections, there were a lot of Republicans (or former Republicans) who were secret Trump supporters (voted for Trump, however would not admit this to friends or pollsters). Hence, the over performance of Trump vs the polls in the last two elections by 2% to 4%. My sense is this year (w/o scientific basis) there are “Current Republicans” who are saying they are still voting for Trump, however, may not - they do not want to admit to their friends they are fatigued. Therefore, I sense Trump will perform at his poll numbers, or underperform this time around. Again, no scientific basis - just the sense I have from previous Trump-supportive friends.
I commend Harris for consistently going into Republican stronghold locations and trying to win every single vote - when a State can be won by 10,000 votes or less, every vote counts. HRC’s campaign ignored the tight margin states and trying to capture any crossover votes - part of what cost them the Electoral College.
I think you nailed the key takeaway Chris. The Republican Party has shrunk considerably over the last decade. You can see it in the data. There are also far more independents today than there have ever been. That’s really bad news for the GOP.
I remember having a really good discussion with a critical theorist, before the term became toxic, and talked about politics, racism, American History etc. His point back then was that voters would rather vote for a black man than a woman.
I get this feeling that Americans would rather vote for Trump than a woman who happens to be black. I don’t know how to measure this, but there seems to be more misogynistic elements in our American Culture than many want to acknowledge.
I have said that for years! It’s so painfully obvious. Regardless of how you feel about Pres Obama, the fact that such a young and inexperienced black man managed to replace a very experienced and centrist Hillary Clinton said it all. I knew it would take an act of God to get a woman elected. There would be some real irony if it was actually Trump that made it happen.
Great analysis (as usual), Chris; thank you! But one point. You speculate that a possible explanation of why Kamala's percentage isn't higher would be that the group of "self-identified Republicans" may be smaller than it was in recent election years. Isn't it super-easy to check this hypothesis against the data? A simple comparison of the size of the self-identified Republican group (in percentage terms) against the number of voters in each election year would do the trick. It would be great if you'd do that math and let us know the result!
I suspect it is not that easy because though a ton of us left the Republican party, they are gaining new members from different cohorts. Hispanics, young males, etc. It's the older Reaganites who left the party but we're being back filled with other people. There is a massive realignment happening with the Dems getting the college educated and the suburban voter and the Republicans getting the more rural and exurban voters.
Nitpicking point: "when he swept to the White House by carrying states like Indiana and North Carolina that had not been one by a Democratic nominee in decades." I believe that you meant to write "won".
As to substance of what you wrote, I'd add this: I'll bet that a lot of self-identified Republicans are now MAGA Republicans., and there isn't a chance in hell that any of them will ever vote for a Democrat, be it VP Harris or anyone else.
Some of the founding fathers hated the concept of political parties and wanted to do away with them. Too feudal and medieval. Now we have microfactional politics. How do you possibly poll someone who belongs to a party of one?
Awwwe, Chris. I liked the percentage Republican Harris supporters stuff ... Until you noted that the _number_ of self-identified R's might have decreased, and that could explain Kamala H being at 4 to 6 percent while other recent Democratic presidential candidates (win or lose) were at 6 (9 for Obama). I was disappointed that you did not look into whether the number of (self-identified) R party members changed (decreased) to check that hypothesis. If 4 percent support Harris (vs 6 for Biden) but the 6 included people who no longer are (self-identified) R, it may be that 2 percent of the old number will vote Harris.
So, a question is: Has the R party shrunk by 2 percent (or more) since those historical days? If do, the 4 percent value (plus defectors' votes) is equal to the 6 percent.
It would also help to look at the degree if variability in R membership - If it varies by 5 percent (on average) or something similar election to election, the comparison is just analyzing 'noise'.
Though I don’t have data to substantiate my opinion, as it’s just anecdotal and among my friends (in person and on Facebook), but I think that many “independents” are actually disaffected Republicans, and that’s why “self-identified Republican” is a smaller group than in the past.
I think a not-insignificant number of *them* will vote for Harris-Walz, less for policy reasons and more because they cannot, in good conscience, vote for Trump.
At least with Harris-Walz, they can be trusted to at least *try* to fulfill their promises (whomever wins the House and/or Senate will determine whether they’ll be able to pass the legislation they want or not), but with Trump-Vance? They’re both pathological liars, with Trump being a crude fabulist and Vance being as slick as a snake oil salesman, and they know that Trump did not fulfill his promises from 2016 (build a wall and Mexico will pay for it; replace Obamacare with something “great”; will pass infrastructure legislation; etc.).
My gut feeling is that Harris-Walz will overperform expectations, but I have to acknowledge that I may be fooling myself…
I think the shift is pretty big from 2008 to now as far as who is a self-identified Republican. Obviously it's well over the majority who were Republicans then, and still are now. But I think it's a *significant* minority who have dropped the "Republican" label as the party abandoned Reaganism (actual conservatism) for Trumpism (populist/nationalist/authoritarianism).
I'm one of those people, as are many of my friends and family members. (I know that's anecdotal and not statistically useful data.)
I'll add that I have joked several times that the overlapping part of the Venn diagram of "people who like Reagan" and "people who think Trump is the worst president in history" is basically just me and Liz Cheney.
But I don't *really* think we're that lonely of a group. 😁
I’m a conservative republican. I changed my registration to democrat because of trumpism. I always vote on issues vice candidates BUT Trump is a facist NOT a republican. The distinction is vast. I’ve never been polled so I’m your outlier. Just how many of us there are is an open question.
It's ironic, isn't it, that the real RINOs are Convicted Felon Trump and his MAGAs?
What's ironic is that people voluntarily label themselves even though it does more harm than good. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Right! Tell me what you are, now I know what you aren't.
<raises hand>
Me as well.
I am one of those “Reagan Republicans” who have moved to being independent since Trump came on the scene and have been and will be voting D for as long as he and or his ilk are around. I do hope that the R party will sometime soon go into the wilderness and reinvent itself - again - with more traditional “conservative” principles. Until that happens count me and my vote for D candidates.
Ditto
I am one of them. Left the party because of Trump. Went back to vote for Haley. Left again after she dropped out. I think most people just refer to this cohort as "Haley voters." We are not all Republicans anymore, but we're not Democrats either. We are indies now in large part. I am voting Harris out of necessity but I am not happy about it. Alas, here we are.
Thank you. Hopefully the Republican Party will right itself after Trump and return to fiscal prudence, social moderation, and patriotism. Strong real Conservative voices are important to our democracy, Trump is no Conservative, and no real Republican.
Thank you also. I hope so too but I really don't think so. I think we're going to need a new moderate, conservative party. Or even a centrist party. But we'll see! Agree, he's no conservative and no real Republican.
Haley endorsed trump.
I really wish this election was Haley vs Harris. I would be MUCH more likely to vote.
For Haley? Part of the reason a bunch of us are voting Harris is not just to be anti Trump but hopefully to let the GOP know that they cannot win with this isolationist stance. TBH, a lot of my vote is on Foreign policy. And though Harris is no Reagan in that regard, she is closer to him than Trump and Vance are. I really worry about NATO with those two in charge. So we suck it up with four years of domestic policy we do not love, but foreign policy that keeps the world order intact, and then hopefully there IS room in the newly reimagined GOP for Nikki Haley and other relative normies like her.
No, for whomever was able to best bridge the partisan divide in what I imagine would have been a very different campaign in which two women candidates felt free to focus on capturing the middle.
Honestly, at this particular point in time, I think that's Harris. We will see if it's all a facade and if it lasts but with her promise to appoint at least one Republican to her cabinet, I am hopeful. Haley is out there with extremely divisive language since she endorsed Trump.
We ALL know former Republicans who bailed on the Party. That number in total has to be in the millions. Even if they just sit out this election it should be enough to get KH across the finish line. Let's hope.
As a self-identified republican, I do not vote the ticket (I have not voted for Trump in the past 2 elections, and will not this year). However, I can not stress enough the importance that like minded people have to retain their party registration so that we are allowed to vote in primaries and get rid of MAGA at the party level.
The Republican Party is so different today than our Father’s or our Grandfather’s Republican Party, I am not sure we can look at past elections as a reliable measuring stick against this election.
Further, in the last two elections, there were a lot of Republicans (or former Republicans) who were secret Trump supporters (voted for Trump, however would not admit this to friends or pollsters). Hence, the over performance of Trump vs the polls in the last two elections by 2% to 4%. My sense is this year (w/o scientific basis) there are “Current Republicans” who are saying they are still voting for Trump, however, may not - they do not want to admit to their friends they are fatigued. Therefore, I sense Trump will perform at his poll numbers, or underperform this time around. Again, no scientific basis - just the sense I have from previous Trump-supportive friends.
I commend Harris for consistently going into Republican stronghold locations and trying to win every single vote - when a State can be won by 10,000 votes or less, every vote counts. HRC’s campaign ignored the tight margin states and trying to capture any crossover votes - part of what cost them the Electoral College.
I think you nailed the key takeaway Chris. The Republican Party has shrunk considerably over the last decade. You can see it in the data. There are also far more independents today than there have ever been. That’s really bad news for the GOP.
I remember having a really good discussion with a critical theorist, before the term became toxic, and talked about politics, racism, American History etc. His point back then was that voters would rather vote for a black man than a woman.
I get this feeling that Americans would rather vote for Trump than a woman who happens to be black. I don’t know how to measure this, but there seems to be more misogynistic elements in our American Culture than many want to acknowledge.
I have said that for years! It’s so painfully obvious. Regardless of how you feel about Pres Obama, the fact that such a young and inexperienced black man managed to replace a very experienced and centrist Hillary Clinton said it all. I knew it would take an act of God to get a woman elected. There would be some real irony if it was actually Trump that made it happen.
I like the way Sam Elliott addresses that question in this perfectly done ad…..
https://youtu.be/COTJMJRFX2w?si=fHQPl9H0Zle_-3y8
Agreed!
Great analysis (as usual), Chris; thank you! But one point. You speculate that a possible explanation of why Kamala's percentage isn't higher would be that the group of "self-identified Republicans" may be smaller than it was in recent election years. Isn't it super-easy to check this hypothesis against the data? A simple comparison of the size of the self-identified Republican group (in percentage terms) against the number of voters in each election year would do the trick. It would be great if you'd do that math and let us know the result!
I suspect it is not that easy because though a ton of us left the Republican party, they are gaining new members from different cohorts. Hispanics, young males, etc. It's the older Reaganites who left the party but we're being back filled with other people. There is a massive realignment happening with the Dems getting the college educated and the suburban voter and the Republicans getting the more rural and exurban voters.
Nitpicking point: "when he swept to the White House by carrying states like Indiana and North Carolina that had not been one by a Democratic nominee in decades." I believe that you meant to write "won".
As to substance of what you wrote, I'd add this: I'll bet that a lot of self-identified Republicans are now MAGA Republicans., and there isn't a chance in hell that any of them will ever vote for a Democrat, be it VP Harris or anyone else.
Is there any thoughts that George Bush will come out for Kamala?…do you think that would move any needle?
Hell yeah Mr. Bill!! Get the whole Iraq war gang back together. That’s a sure way to win over Democrats.
No!
Some of the founding fathers hated the concept of political parties and wanted to do away with them. Too feudal and medieval. Now we have microfactional politics. How do you possibly poll someone who belongs to a party of one?
Awwwe, Chris. I liked the percentage Republican Harris supporters stuff ... Until you noted that the _number_ of self-identified R's might have decreased, and that could explain Kamala H being at 4 to 6 percent while other recent Democratic presidential candidates (win or lose) were at 6 (9 for Obama). I was disappointed that you did not look into whether the number of (self-identified) R party members changed (decreased) to check that hypothesis. If 4 percent support Harris (vs 6 for Biden) but the 6 included people who no longer are (self-identified) R, it may be that 2 percent of the old number will vote Harris.
So, a question is: Has the R party shrunk by 2 percent (or more) since those historical days? If do, the 4 percent value (plus defectors' votes) is equal to the 6 percent.
It would also help to look at the degree if variability in R membership - If it varies by 5 percent (on average) or something similar election to election, the comparison is just analyzing 'noise'.
I (& wife) enjoy your stuff.
Though I don’t have data to substantiate my opinion, as it’s just anecdotal and among my friends (in person and on Facebook), but I think that many “independents” are actually disaffected Republicans, and that’s why “self-identified Republican” is a smaller group than in the past.
I think a not-insignificant number of *them* will vote for Harris-Walz, less for policy reasons and more because they cannot, in good conscience, vote for Trump.
At least with Harris-Walz, they can be trusted to at least *try* to fulfill their promises (whomever wins the House and/or Senate will determine whether they’ll be able to pass the legislation they want or not), but with Trump-Vance? They’re both pathological liars, with Trump being a crude fabulist and Vance being as slick as a snake oil salesman, and they know that Trump did not fulfill his promises from 2016 (build a wall and Mexico will pay for it; replace Obamacare with something “great”; will pass infrastructure legislation; etc.).
My gut feeling is that Harris-Walz will overperform expectations, but I have to acknowledge that I may be fooling myself…
I think the shift is pretty big from 2008 to now as far as who is a self-identified Republican. Obviously it's well over the majority who were Republicans then, and still are now. But I think it's a *significant* minority who have dropped the "Republican" label as the party abandoned Reaganism (actual conservatism) for Trumpism (populist/nationalist/authoritarianism).
I'm one of those people, as are many of my friends and family members. (I know that's anecdotal and not statistically useful data.)
I'll add that I have joked several times that the overlapping part of the Venn diagram of "people who like Reagan" and "people who think Trump is the worst president in history" is basically just me and Liz Cheney.
But I don't *really* think we're that lonely of a group. 😁