Today in Ripon, Wisconsin, Vice President Kamala Harris will appear alongside former GOP Rep. Liz Cheney in an event expressly aimed at convincing Republicans to vote for her.
Here’s how the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel described the visit:
When Vice President Kamala Harris campaigns in Ripon today, she'll be visiting the birthplace of the Republican Party.
And that's not a mistake. Harris will be joined by former Rep. Liz Cheney, who was born in Madison and is one of the most prominent Republican critics of Trump in the country. The campaign also touted endorsements from former Republican Wisconsin lawmakers ahead of the Thursday event.
According to a senior campaign official, Harris plans to address the significance of the Little White School House, which hosted meetings that helped form the Republican Party in 1854. Harris will nod to the history of the traditional party and make appeals to independent and Republican voters, the official said.
Which made me want to know: Is Harris, currently, overperforming among Republican voters?
Start here — with how each of the last four Democratic nominees have done among self-identified Republican voters:
Joe Biden (2020): 6%
Hillary Clinton (2016): 7%
Barack Obama (2012): 6%
Barack Obama (2008): 9%
So, not surprisingly, the high water mark in terms of a Democrat winning GOP votes was Obama in 2008 — when he swept to the White House by carrying states like Indiana and North Carolina that had not been one by a Democratic nominee in decades.
How is Harris running among Republicans? I looked at three recent national polls:
New York Times/Siena: 5%
YouGov: 4%
Morning Consult: 6%
So, she is at the low end of what Democratic presidential candidates typically win among GOP voters. Which isn’t great!
One big caveat worth mentioning: Remember that we are talking about people who describe themselves to pollsters as Republicans. It is uniquely possible that there are people — maybe even lots of people — who have abandoned that description over the last decade. Maybe they now say they are independents. Or even Democrats.
My point is this: Harris’ low(ish) numbers among Republicans aren’t necessarily a sign that she is underperforming among that group as compared to past Democratic nominees. It could also mean that group has simply shrunk/changed over the past 10 years.
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