Good insights, Chris. The EU Parliament may not be a reliable indicator b/c it is not viewed as a particularly important body. But the rise of Nationalism/Populism is undeniable. You correctly note the importance of immigration. That's a factor that has long motivated right wing &isolationist movements.The various wars in the Middle East and Africa have sent a steady flood of migrants to Europe, & many of those previously homogenized countries have struggled with their increased diversity. World wide income inequality also spurs people look for another home. Don't underestimate the impact of Russia's meddling in European politics (or ours for that matter). Putin is known to fund Le Pen and others. As far as your point re Trump, all these factors are in large part what gave rise to his popularity and , of course, he may well win again. We need a coalition of the sane to stop him.
I'm not convinced it's so much a pro-populist movement as a 'throw the bums out' situation. The overall sense I get is a negative reaction to parties in power. If it was simply a rightist populist surge, you would not have seen the most far-right European politician, Viktor Orbán, significantly underperform expectations and in the upcoming UK election, the left wing Labour Party are looking to trounce the Conservatives. Not that this interpretation alters your conclusion, Trump definitely has a real chance of winning.
Exactly right! I think Chris is missing the big picture on this, by NOT looking at Eastern Europe and the results there. For a much more balanced viewpoint, read Jay Kuo’s excellent take this AM at his The Status Kuo column. We are in agreement: it appears that people are looking for a change from the status quo, regardless of which end of the political spectrum their country is at the moment.
How this affects us here is a bit more complicated, given that we have either a “keep moving in the same direction” current admin or a “let’s go back to a fantasy time” with what was the previous admin. Jay’s got some good thoughts on that, but I just don’t know….
As TD said, the ascendancy of the right wing movement is all about immigration or, more specifically, the fear of immigration. The "Great replacement theory", which RWM has been promoting as nauseum, is an example of that. And since Trump is a master at parlaying the fears of his minions into votes, and is also shamelss, we should be worried.
I agree with you that what happened in Europe is relevant. As an anti-Trump Republican, the performance of the Biden Administration frustrates me. Why wait till the 11th hour to take a stand against illegal immigration? At this point, anything he does on this seems like politics. Biden is so afraid of angering his left that he's alienated the center and right, many of whom dislike Trump's temperament, Jan. 6th antics, and sucking up to Putin.
I know the MAGA crowd are excited about the slight move of the European politics to the far right. I will advise them that European politics is VERY different from American Politics.So , don't get that excited. It's not happening here.
Chris’s take on EU politics only works if you conveniently choose NOT to look at Hungary and Orban’s poorest performance there yet or Civic Coalition’s excellent performance in Poland. The “liberal” countries are moving more towards populism but the far-right countries are moving towards the center.
It’s MUCH more complex than Chris’s reporting would have you think….
There are definitely several cross-currents. But note that Meloni won in Italy with a far right party and right wing candidates have gotten traction in the Netherlands and Germany. The right wing’s mainstream success would have been unthinkable years ago. And Putin is funding their efforts
Yes, many things happening at the same time, Todd!
That said, if Chris repeatedly tries to tell us that he’s “telling it like it is” and not “what we want to hear”, then why can we see, in our Substack feed on the *exact* same day on the *exact* same subject, other writers that are showing FAR more detailed and nuanced analysis that reaches a *very* different conclusion than Chris’s?
I’m *always* skeptical of journalists and their potential bias, and Chris is no different…
A similar situation arose during the lead-up to WWII; fascism swept Europe, fueled primarily by state-sponsored propaganda promoting the fear of domestic ethnic/cultural minorities. Germany, Italy, and Austria were totally consumed, with large fascist organizations present in both Britain and France. Today is not dissimilar, as the extreme right backlash is primarily against the cultural "other" in all its myriad forms. The main difference is that there is no specific, overarching political philosophy that transcends borders, like Hitler & Mussolini's Führerprinzip, although today many of the cultural themes are similar.
The problem is that the fascist authoritarian manipulation of these cultural fears in the 1930's was a primary driver in the lead up to WWII; the question is, will a similar upheaval lead to a similar global meltdown in the 2020–30s?
Biden got a larger constituency buying what he's selling as evidenced in 2020. He (Biden)is going to repeat the feat again in November and sorry if I deflated your excitement but that's just the fact
2020 is four years ago and can't be cited as evidence for this election. And not sure how something that may or may not happen in the future can be called a fact (until it happens). Partisan much?
Being a grammar and punctuation “nazi”, I believe that the good Dr. should put a comma or semicolon between those two phrases: it is a *fact* that Biden beat Trump in 2020; and the Dr feels confident that he will do so again (ie not that it’s a “fact” that he will).
Of course, the good Dr. is very *definitely* a diehard Biden supporter and maybe he *does* consider a Biden 2024 victory to be a “fact”…. 🤣
If Chris is right about his theory of far right populism taking over the World, the Tory party in UK who has far more right wing populists should defeat the Labour party on July 4th. Let us see what happens there in July before counting the chickens before they are hatched here in America
Good insights, Chris. The EU Parliament may not be a reliable indicator b/c it is not viewed as a particularly important body. But the rise of Nationalism/Populism is undeniable. You correctly note the importance of immigration. That's a factor that has long motivated right wing &isolationist movements.The various wars in the Middle East and Africa have sent a steady flood of migrants to Europe, & many of those previously homogenized countries have struggled with their increased diversity. World wide income inequality also spurs people look for another home. Don't underestimate the impact of Russia's meddling in European politics (or ours for that matter). Putin is known to fund Le Pen and others. As far as your point re Trump, all these factors are in large part what gave rise to his popularity and , of course, he may well win again. We need a coalition of the sane to stop him.
I'm not convinced it's so much a pro-populist movement as a 'throw the bums out' situation. The overall sense I get is a negative reaction to parties in power. If it was simply a rightist populist surge, you would not have seen the most far-right European politician, Viktor Orbán, significantly underperform expectations and in the upcoming UK election, the left wing Labour Party are looking to trounce the Conservatives. Not that this interpretation alters your conclusion, Trump definitely has a real chance of winning.
Exactly right! I think Chris is missing the big picture on this, by NOT looking at Eastern Europe and the results there. For a much more balanced viewpoint, read Jay Kuo’s excellent take this AM at his The Status Kuo column. We are in agreement: it appears that people are looking for a change from the status quo, regardless of which end of the political spectrum their country is at the moment.
How this affects us here is a bit more complicated, given that we have either a “keep moving in the same direction” current admin or a “let’s go back to a fantasy time” with what was the previous admin. Jay’s got some good thoughts on that, but I just don’t know….
As TD said, the ascendancy of the right wing movement is all about immigration or, more specifically, the fear of immigration. The "Great replacement theory", which RWM has been promoting as nauseum, is an example of that. And since Trump is a master at parlaying the fears of his minions into votes, and is also shamelss, we should be worried.
I agree with you that what happened in Europe is relevant. As an anti-Trump Republican, the performance of the Biden Administration frustrates me. Why wait till the 11th hour to take a stand against illegal immigration? At this point, anything he does on this seems like politics. Biden is so afraid of angering his left that he's alienated the center and right, many of whom dislike Trump's temperament, Jan. 6th antics, and sucking up to Putin.
Nailed it!
could. not. agree. more.
Why is populism so commonly attached to right wing policies and not left wing ones?
I know the MAGA crowd are excited about the slight move of the European politics to the far right. I will advise them that European politics is VERY different from American Politics.So , don't get that excited. It's not happening here.
Chris’s take on EU politics only works if you conveniently choose NOT to look at Hungary and Orban’s poorest performance there yet or Civic Coalition’s excellent performance in Poland. The “liberal” countries are moving more towards populism but the far-right countries are moving towards the center.
It’s MUCH more complex than Chris’s reporting would have you think….
There are definitely several cross-currents. But note that Meloni won in Italy with a far right party and right wing candidates have gotten traction in the Netherlands and Germany. The right wing’s mainstream success would have been unthinkable years ago. And Putin is funding their efforts
Yes, many things happening at the same time, Todd!
That said, if Chris repeatedly tries to tell us that he’s “telling it like it is” and not “what we want to hear”, then why can we see, in our Substack feed on the *exact* same day on the *exact* same subject, other writers that are showing FAR more detailed and nuanced analysis that reaches a *very* different conclusion than Chris’s?
I’m *always* skeptical of journalists and their potential bias, and Chris is no different…
Reminds me of how Brexit foreshadowed the Trump election in 2016.
Sam, ask the Brittons if they are regretting Brexit or not
A similar situation arose during the lead-up to WWII; fascism swept Europe, fueled primarily by state-sponsored propaganda promoting the fear of domestic ethnic/cultural minorities. Germany, Italy, and Austria were totally consumed, with large fascist organizations present in both Britain and France. Today is not dissimilar, as the extreme right backlash is primarily against the cultural "other" in all its myriad forms. The main difference is that there is no specific, overarching political philosophy that transcends borders, like Hitler & Mussolini's Führerprinzip, although today many of the cultural themes are similar.
The problem is that the fascist authoritarian manipulation of these cultural fears in the 1930's was a primary driver in the lead up to WWII; the question is, will a similar upheaval lead to a similar global meltdown in the 2020–30s?
Biden got a larger constituency buying what he's selling as evidenced in 2020. He (Biden)is going to repeat the feat again in November and sorry if I deflated your excitement but that's just the fact
2020 is four years ago and can't be cited as evidence for this election. And not sure how something that may or may not happen in the future can be called a fact (until it happens). Partisan much?
The fact here is that Biden beat Trump in 2020 and he will beat him again in November
Fact? So done deal? Well, phew! I was nervous!
Being a grammar and punctuation “nazi”, I believe that the good Dr. should put a comma or semicolon between those two phrases: it is a *fact* that Biden beat Trump in 2020; and the Dr feels confident that he will do so again (ie not that it’s a “fact” that he will).
Of course, the good Dr. is very *definitely* a diehard Biden supporter and maybe he *does* consider a Biden 2024 victory to be a “fact”…. 🤣
If Chris is right about his theory of far right populism taking over the World, the Tory party in UK who has far more right wing populists should defeat the Labour party on July 4th. Let us see what happens there in July before counting the chickens before they are hatched here in America
And Eastern Europe doesn’t fit Chris’s narrative either, ie Poland and Hungary.