I have been keeping a very close eye on the youth vote — men and women between 18-29 years old — in this election as I am convinced they could be the difference between winning and losing for Kamala Harris.
Well, we got a WHOLE bunch of great new data on that age cohort this morning when the Harvard Institute of Politics dropped its latest poll of young voters.
The topline isn’t surprising — Harris is leading Donald Trump among young people:
But, in an election that we expect to be this close, margins matter. Harris is up 23 points among registered voters and 31 points among likely voters.
How does that compare to the past two Democratic presidential nominees?
In 2020, Joe Biden won 18-29 year olds by 24 points — and won the election. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried them by 19 — and lost.
The other critical data point out of the new Harvard poll is the MASSIVE gender gap among young voters.
Harris is winning young men by 17 points over Trump. Young women — aka the Taylor Swift vote — are going overwhelmingly for Harris. She’s winning them by a whopping 47(!) points. (Worth noting: When Harvard last did this poll in the spring, Joe Biden was beating Trump among young women by 22 points.)
Could young women make the difference in a few swing states in a close election? Harris’ campaign knows they can — all too well.
Sorry sorry 😂😂😂
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The Morning: Kamala and the Taylor Swift vote