I have been keeping a very close eye on the youth vote — men and women between 18-29 years old — in this election as I am convinced they could be the difference between winning and losing for Kamala Harris.
Well, we got a WHOLE bunch of great new data on that age cohort this morning when the Harvard Institute of Politics dropped its latest poll of young voters.
The topline isn’t surprising — Harris is leading Donald Trump among young people:
But, in an election that we expect to be this close, margins matter. Harris is up 23 points among registered voters and 31 points among likely voters.
How does that compare to the past two Democratic presidential nominees?
In 2020, Joe Biden won 18-29 year olds by 24 points — and won the election. In 2016, Hillary Clinton carried them by 19 — and lost.
The other critical data point out of the new Harvard poll is the MASSIVE gender gap among young voters.
Harris is winning young men by 17 points over Trump. Young women — aka the Taylor Swift vote — are going overwhelmingly for Harris. She’s winning them by a whopping 47(!) points. (Worth noting: When Harvard last did this poll in the spring, Joe Biden was beating Trump among young women by 22 points.)
Could young women make the difference in a few swing states in a close election? Harris’ campaign knows they can — all too well.
Sorry sorry 😂😂😂
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Some other things to note when dealing with age groups over time: they change. Only those who were 18 to 21 in 2016 are still in this cohort. Everyone else has aged out of it. And in the current group there will be many first time voters.
Here's a real sobering thought: the kids who survived the Sandy Hook shooting will be voting in their first presidential election this year.
I think about the quote a lot that “sandy hook was the end of the gun control debate - if a class of dead kindergarteners won’t move congress, nothing will” - it’s sad and sobering and, I always thought it was true. But I recently read an article that convinced me otherwise. What it will take is a mass shooting of congress. I don’t wish this, but given our culture it seems inevitable. Only then will their self serving nature force them to pass real gun reform.
Sadly, it's already happened once.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1954_United_States_Capitol_shooting
Thank you as I have never heard this story….
Wouldn’t that be a turn up for the books if after all the Republicans misogyny we blew them out of the water with the female vote!
Yes, it would be a beautiful example of ironic justice. Young women just need to turn out and vote....and I am convinced they will.
I really think they will!
Even better that he's hopefully gonna lose to a black women. He's never gonna live that down.
Not to mention the fact that he will be battling the courts for at least four more years.
Sadly the Supremes are going to shield him from everything. I'm so disappointed there. Meek Garland should have had charges drawn up and an indictment on the first week of his term.
Agree totally. These Justice department folks tout their thoroughness but they needed to acknowledge the reality of time ticking!! How did we land here?!
Too true. But just think how small he will feel knowing half of America, the women, want nothing to do with him. His point is always that women shouldn’t be allowed to make any choices for themselves. And he also thinks we are so star struck by him he can get away with anything. Wrong again!
And how anyone can still be star struck by that guy is amazing to me. He's just an awful human being.
I have real trouble seeing him as he is now—a slow-witted old man driving round a golf course, or babbling incoherently on stage—holding any attraction for anyone except with his messages of hate. I think initially his TV stardom and seemingly deep pockets made people want to emulate him. Nowadays it’s his goodie supporters showing up at the NY courtroom all dressed alike. If it weren’t so serious, I would die laughing at their stupidity!
This analysis is excellent, but your article’s title is awful. “Taylor Swift vote”? How about “reproductive rights vote”?
Because a lot of people voting on reproductive rights are outside that cohort?
Has everyone seen this commercial for Kamala with Sam Elliott's voiceover? I love it, swear words and all!!
https://youtu.be/COTJMJRFX2w
Be a man and vote for a woman!
This is my favorite line as well. "...because if it is the woman thing it is time to get over that"
Love it! Thanks for posting the link!!
Excellent analysis and hopeful!!
I joke that Harris could clinch the election if Taylor Swift simply said if Harris is elected, she would release a new album. If Trump is elected, she won't release one until he is out of office. It would be a landslide election for Harris
His PA speech last night was increasingly desperate. He's losing it quickly. I don't think there is anything he won't promise at this point. Soon he's going to promise men longer erections if he gets in, and if he doesn't, there will be no more sex.
He's still whining about how Jimmy Kimmel zinged him at the Oscars and, of course, totally lied about what happened. (Oh, and I'm not related to Jimmy. :) )
My daughter is 22 and follows politics She was voting Harris before the Swift endorsement , but it may influence some of her less political friends to register and vote democratic
I needed this today after some recent polling news. The youth will save us!
Chris please explain the end "Sorry, Sorry happy face tears emojis."
Trump is scared of Taylor Swift, and he should be. In a close election, it is probable that the one or two hundred thousand votes TS may bring in for KH would be game-changing. Let's hope.
Donald Trump on Monday night told women that he is their “protector” and that they will “no longer be thinking about abortion” if he wins in November.
He has spoken! /s
This post made me curious about stats re youth voter participation. Tufts' "Circle" site has some good data. In general, youth participation has increased over the last decade. Perhaps most relevant now is that 50% of young voters showed up in 2020 compared to 36% in 2016. The site notes a strong correlation between the extent to which laws facilitate voting and participation. That correlation provides another incentive for MAGA world to chill voting however they can.
I understand the larger point, but now you’ve gotten me interested in a few data points that you may have mentioned— but if so I missed them.
When youth vote shifted toward Harris from biden— what were the shift numbers by gender? In other words, how many points did the bro vote and the swift vote shift to Harris?
And what are the shifts of those gender votes between 2016, 2020, and now (acc to this poll)?
"Swift vote vs the Bro vote" - I love it!!!
Well at least you are familiar with the “All to well” phrase. ;-)
I'm not. What's it about?
LOL it’s the title of one of Taylor Swifts songs.
Assumed it was something like that but I'm not in her audience.
It's ok. ;-)
I would love to know how Biden and Clinton did with young men versus Trump, because as Chuck Todd said yesterday, isn't that his demographic?