Late Tuesday, the Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, one of the leading non-partisan political handicapping sites in the country, moved North Carolina from its “lean Republican” category into “toss up.”
Which is a BIG deal.
Because for the majority of the race between Donald Trump and Joe Biden, we really had 6 swing states + North Carolina. The state always felt out of reach for Biden — and grew even more so after his disastrous debate performance.
But, Kamala Harris’ entry into the race has changed that dynamic. Consider the comparison between polling conducted for the Cook Report in the state in May versus August:
Harris has both consolidated the Democratic base in the state — especially black voters who historically make up 1 in 5 votes cast — but also made a double-digit improvement over Biden among independents.
Numbers like those are why Trump has been in the state repeatedly since Harris became the nominee. He and his campaign know they are in for a real race there.
Which fundamentally shifts the overall map. In the wake of the first debate, all the movement in the map was in Trump’s favor — with Minnesota, Virginia and New Mexico, among other states, looking winnable for him.
Since Democrats swapped Biden for Harris, that map momentum has fundamentally changed. Now North Carolina — and its 16 electoral votes — is a real opportunity for Democrats and Trump is forced to play defense.
I also think it’s fair to say that without North Carolina, the road to 270 gets very complicated for Trump. Lose there and he almost certainly loses the presidency.
Much more on the state — and the map — in today’s edition of The Morning.
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The Morning: North Carolina goes 'toss up'