I don’t believe the polls. I think they over corrected for past errors. Plus I think there are shy Harris voters this time around.
I see Kamala Harris getting somewhere between 300 and 330 Electoral votes and there will be no way to decry the election or claim fraud when there’s a massive turnout and groundswell for the VP.
I don’t know, but I assume pollsters keep their models fairly consistent within a cycle. If so, the trend lines are very troubling. A Trump win would be a stinging indictment of our fellow citizens. It’s as if his history of disqualifying acts is all forgotten-eg, 1/6, verdicts for sexual assault and fraud, lying about & bungling Covid . Now, we have the obscene lunacy of his pledges to pardon the 1/6 criminals and appoint RFK Jr as health czar. And we have Musk buying votes. Trump’s ads include a new string of promises he will never keep- eg, numerous tax breaks that will never pass. And people believe him even after he broke his promises about the Wall, check from Mexico, healthcare, and infrastructure . You can never go wrong underestimating the American public
Todd David - win or lose, Trump's campaign and the fact that he is even running and the that he will receive more than 60 million votes is ALREADY a damning indictment of our fellow citizens, and for that matter our standing in the world. World leaders of allies and enemies alike know that Trump is an easily manipulated buffoon. Why American voters do not see that is quite a mystery.
With Pennsylvania being SO important, the selection of Knucklehead Walz as a running mate, as opposed to the very popular Gov Shapiro, may be loom very large in this election.
my issue with Shapiro; would his competitive nature and charisma have undermined Harris' effectiveness as a presidential candidate ... would folks have been saying, 'why isn't he at the top of the ticket' ... secondly, he might have helped win Pennsylvania but have lost Michigan and Wisconsin (the progressive and Muslim voters being turned off by his ardent pro-Israel stance) ... not the least that Trump could have exploited the gap between Harris' positioning on Israel-Gaza and that of Shapiro
Agree with all these points. Plus, I don't know how much more juice you get from Shapiro on the ticket versus Shapiro out on the trail all the time supporting Harris. Interested in other thoughts on that.
Good point, I really fell like VP Harris had been dealt a losing hand. JB has been no help at all. His policies and his words have made her climb so much more difficult.
Clinton, 2016: half are a basket of deplorables. Biden 2024: trump supporters are garbage. After observing them over the last nine years I say, SPOT ON!!!
Shapiro is a top of the ticket type person. His presence on the national ticket would prompt unhelpful questions about Harris's ability to lead. Walz is a good decent man, who makes some mistakes. Trump gets to be lawless, and it seems that VP Harris must be flawless. Really? You would vote for Trump because of Walz? If you would not, then do not listen to other people who do. They are Trumpkins in disguise.
I chuckled at your response since you'd be saying the following if Shapiro was selected as your responses have become very, very predictable: In Pennsylvania, the selection of the very unpopular Shapiro as a running mate as opposed to someone like Gov Walz a Midwesterner, may loom very large in this election. You forget your trademark "hehe" at the end.
For either candidate who is elected, if everything goes upside down then those who voted for said candidate owns the chaos too. I'm going with all those folks who worked with Trump said he is totally unfitted for office. Your leaning with bozo ex DOJ Jeffrey Clark and the guys that can't deliver on any of the promises made but will attempt chaos it get there.
Always. Though I do worry that you're keeping a dossier on all of us who are negative about Trump and will report back to your friends in the DOJ. Haha!
Having retired police in the family..they never really retire. They just don't get paid for the 8 hours of if work anymore. They still keep busy in the business. If Trump is elected and the call goes out, you wouldn't return to the DOJ? It will take more than 5 years plus a trillion dollars to shift 20 million from the country. That's 10,000 per day. More man power than the measley number to find pp predicted.
I'm also choosing to not believe the polls. As you remember it took 3 people to swing a poll that Chuck Todd talked about. I just don't believe they poll enough people to get a decisive picture. Maybe when things are not as close 1000 people is enough but not when its close. I also believe there are shy Harris voters...especially Republican women.
What is going to happen will happen. The Dems are giving their all and the DonOld does not ever disappoint. He's hunkered down on the bromance as saving him. It's a risky plan and once again, black women have the opportunity to save America. I wish our country could be more considerate of them, especially since they can save it from itself.
District level polling tells a different story. Muhlenberg has Harris leading in the Lehigh Valley, a classic bellwether. That doesn’t square with Trump leading statewide.
I lived in Buffalo for a long time. Tim Russert AND his Dad were legend. I felt a deep loss when he left us. I have a picture of Tim, Gwen Iffil, MacNeil and Lehrer, Mark Shields, Peter Jennings and many more sitting around observing the circus that this election has become. Tim would be saying I want to be there.
Trumps garbage man stunt, complete with leaving the vest on all night..did he sleep in it?..was representative of why he has so much popularity but also why he must be defeated. To the 80 million Americans, especially the ones in PA I ask,...how will the shame of electing an unserious, cruel, indecent, buffoon feel when the reality comedy show is over and you, like the rest of us, are forced to live with the fact that we now have 4 years with that wretched, authoritarian creature as our president.
I think that if Trump's internal polls were really showing him winning in PA, he would not be sowing doubt now to dispute the result later. I think that lots of dubious polls from Trump aligned pollsters have been dumped in PA and NC to skew the averages there in his favor. Even polls that 538 downgrades, still count toward their averages. That is why there have been over 30 Trump aligned polls dumped there since early October. The people that I talk to on phone banks in do not seem THAT devoted to Trump. I question these poll aggregators and I predict that post-election we will find that they over-corrected for lack of counting Trump voters in 2016 and 2020. That means Harris is doing better than these averages suggest. It will be close, but Trump is going to lose. I do agree Chris, that the result in PA is REAL important. But the Trump campaigns gaffe of showing their true racist and xenophobic colors via the "Puerto Rico is an Island of garbage" will doom him with the Latino population in PA, which is quite large. Trump campaign showed who they REALLY are during that Madison Square Garden rally, that indoor white nationalist rally, and that bell cannot be unrung.
There are SO many articles about the gaming of the polling averages over the last 6 weeks with over 70 Republican-paid polls that skew 2% to 5% higher than the acknowledged quality non-partisan polls, 12 of 15 in PA alone, yet Chris continues to ignore experts (like Tom Bonier, Jay Kuo, etc).
I’ve asked the last few weeks about this and Chris has totally ignored my questions. I guess if you don’t have facts to back up your opinion, you just run from the questions.
On the lighter side I watched a short Joe Rohan clip where they were discussing the CIA JFK files
Watching Trump it really was evident he says what comes to his mind at that minute
He said he had looked at about have the unopened files (I think there are approximately 1500 of them.). Whatever side you’re on we know he really doesn’t read anything alone that many pages
He also said Area 51 was the most visited tourist site. I know that’s true I’ve driven right up to the gate a half dozen times and they let me right in for the tour
Pennsylvania is home to over 450,000 ethnic Puerto Ricans who are a little unhappy with the GOP campaign right now. This could be an ugly jack-in-the-box for the Trump campaign.
My opinion based on the excitement in the presidential race is that President Trump wins ez. President Trump having a blast, VP Harris all negative all the time.
Once again, @dutchmaga lives in the upside down world. Harris is negative?
I guess you forgot the US “is the garbage can of the world”; “they are scum”; “they are garbage”; “she’s so fucking bad”; “that is one dumb woman”; “lowlife”; “dog”; and literally a thousand more, if I wanted to waste more time on someone as morally and intellectually bankrupt as @dutchmaga.
You have zero credibility and you just reinforce, every single day, how devoid of critical thinking skills you are.
I don’t believe the polls. I think they over corrected for past errors. Plus I think there are shy Harris voters this time around.
I see Kamala Harris getting somewhere between 300 and 330 Electoral votes and there will be no way to decry the election or claim fraud when there’s a massive turnout and groundswell for the VP.
I hope I’m right.
I believe you are for the reasons you articulated.
I don’t know, but I assume pollsters keep their models fairly consistent within a cycle. If so, the trend lines are very troubling. A Trump win would be a stinging indictment of our fellow citizens. It’s as if his history of disqualifying acts is all forgotten-eg, 1/6, verdicts for sexual assault and fraud, lying about & bungling Covid . Now, we have the obscene lunacy of his pledges to pardon the 1/6 criminals and appoint RFK Jr as health czar. And we have Musk buying votes. Trump’s ads include a new string of promises he will never keep- eg, numerous tax breaks that will never pass. And people believe him even after he broke his promises about the Wall, check from Mexico, healthcare, and infrastructure . You can never go wrong underestimating the American public
Todd David - win or lose, Trump's campaign and the fact that he is even running and the that he will receive more than 60 million votes is ALREADY a damning indictment of our fellow citizens, and for that matter our standing in the world. World leaders of allies and enemies alike know that Trump is an easily manipulated buffoon. Why American voters do not see that is quite a mystery.
Exactly right
Here's hoping
Man, I still really miss Tim Russert.
My husband and I say that all the time. What I wouldn't give to hear his take on the past eight years.
I met his son Luke a few weeks ago and he is a really decent and intelligent man.
With Pennsylvania being SO important, the selection of Knucklehead Walz as a running mate, as opposed to the very popular Gov Shapiro, may be loom very large in this election.
my issue with Shapiro; would his competitive nature and charisma have undermined Harris' effectiveness as a presidential candidate ... would folks have been saying, 'why isn't he at the top of the ticket' ... secondly, he might have helped win Pennsylvania but have lost Michigan and Wisconsin (the progressive and Muslim voters being turned off by his ardent pro-Israel stance) ... not the least that Trump could have exploited the gap between Harris' positioning on Israel-Gaza and that of Shapiro
Exactly right David.
Agree with all these points. Plus, I don't know how much more juice you get from Shapiro on the ticket versus Shapiro out on the trail all the time supporting Harris. Interested in other thoughts on that.
Good point, I really fell like VP Harris had been dealt a losing hand. JB has been no help at all. His policies and his words have made her climb so much more difficult.
While Convicted Felon Trump spending the final days of his campaign alienating women, Latinos, and Jews will be seen at him digging his own grave.
That’s garbage
Clinton, 2016: half are a basket of deplorables. Biden 2024: trump supporters are garbage. After observing them over the last nine years I say, SPOT ON!!!
Be that as it may, I don't see that approach gaining more votes for Harris as the election approaches. Trump already owns the trash talk lane.
"But enough about Puerto Rico," - Tony Hinchcliffe at a Trump rally.
Shapiro is a top of the ticket type person. His presence on the national ticket would prompt unhelpful questions about Harris's ability to lead. Walz is a good decent man, who makes some mistakes. Trump gets to be lawless, and it seems that VP Harris must be flawless. Really? You would vote for Trump because of Walz? If you would not, then do not listen to other people who do. They are Trumpkins in disguise.
I chuckled at your response since you'd be saying the following if Shapiro was selected as your responses have become very, very predictable: In Pennsylvania, the selection of the very unpopular Shapiro as a running mate as opposed to someone like Gov Walz a Midwesterner, may loom very large in this election. You forget your trademark "hehe" at the end.
For either candidate who is elected, if everything goes upside down then those who voted for said candidate owns the chaos too. I'm going with all those folks who worked with Trump said he is totally unfitted for office. Your leaning with bozo ex DOJ Jeffrey Clark and the guys that can't deliver on any of the promises made but will attempt chaos it get there.
https://www.politico.com/news/2024/04/04/jeffrey-clark-ethics-rules-00150631
So glad you enjoy my perspective!
He he he
Always. Though I do worry that you're keeping a dossier on all of us who are negative about Trump and will report back to your friends in the DOJ. Haha!
Retired!
Having retired police in the family..they never really retire. They just don't get paid for the 8 hours of if work anymore. They still keep busy in the business. If Trump is elected and the call goes out, you wouldn't return to the DOJ? It will take more than 5 years plus a trillion dollars to shift 20 million from the country. That's 10,000 per day. More man power than the measley number to find pp predicted.
I'm also choosing to not believe the polls. As you remember it took 3 people to swing a poll that Chuck Todd talked about. I just don't believe they poll enough people to get a decisive picture. Maybe when things are not as close 1000 people is enough but not when its close. I also believe there are shy Harris voters...especially Republican women.
What is going to happen will happen. The Dems are giving their all and the DonOld does not ever disappoint. He's hunkered down on the bromance as saving him. It's a risky plan and once again, black women have the opportunity to save America. I wish our country could be more considerate of them, especially since they can save it from itself.
District level polling tells a different story. Muhlenberg has Harris leading in the Lehigh Valley, a classic bellwether. That doesn’t square with Trump leading statewide.
I lived in Buffalo for a long time. Tim Russert AND his Dad were legend. I felt a deep loss when he left us. I have a picture of Tim, Gwen Iffil, MacNeil and Lehrer, Mark Shields, Peter Jennings and many more sitting around observing the circus that this election has become. Tim would be saying I want to be there.
Trumps garbage man stunt, complete with leaving the vest on all night..did he sleep in it?..was representative of why he has so much popularity but also why he must be defeated. To the 80 million Americans, especially the ones in PA I ask,...how will the shame of electing an unserious, cruel, indecent, buffoon feel when the reality comedy show is over and you, like the rest of us, are forced to live with the fact that we now have 4 years with that wretched, authoritarian creature as our president.
I think that if Trump's internal polls were really showing him winning in PA, he would not be sowing doubt now to dispute the result later. I think that lots of dubious polls from Trump aligned pollsters have been dumped in PA and NC to skew the averages there in his favor. Even polls that 538 downgrades, still count toward their averages. That is why there have been over 30 Trump aligned polls dumped there since early October. The people that I talk to on phone banks in do not seem THAT devoted to Trump. I question these poll aggregators and I predict that post-election we will find that they over-corrected for lack of counting Trump voters in 2016 and 2020. That means Harris is doing better than these averages suggest. It will be close, but Trump is going to lose. I do agree Chris, that the result in PA is REAL important. But the Trump campaigns gaffe of showing their true racist and xenophobic colors via the "Puerto Rico is an Island of garbage" will doom him with the Latino population in PA, which is quite large. Trump campaign showed who they REALLY are during that Madison Square Garden rally, that indoor white nationalist rally, and that bell cannot be unrung.
There are SO many articles about the gaming of the polling averages over the last 6 weeks with over 70 Republican-paid polls that skew 2% to 5% higher than the acknowledged quality non-partisan polls, 12 of 15 in PA alone, yet Chris continues to ignore experts (like Tom Bonier, Jay Kuo, etc).
I’ve asked the last few weeks about this and Chris has totally ignored my questions. I guess if you don’t have facts to back up your opinion, you just run from the questions.
On the lighter side I watched a short Joe Rohan clip where they were discussing the CIA JFK files
Watching Trump it really was evident he says what comes to his mind at that minute
He said he had looked at about have the unopened files (I think there are approximately 1500 of them.). Whatever side you’re on we know he really doesn’t read anything alone that many pages
He also said Area 51 was the most visited tourist site. I know that’s true I’ve driven right up to the gate a half dozen times and they let me right in for the tour
Dutch, my friend, I always enjoy your comments. My late best friend where I used to work was conservative as I am liberal
We were always truly working but we used to intentionally end up yelling at each other over politics. No one else understood that
I would guess you might just enjoy a little baiting😊😊😊. The gig is up
I love you man
Pennsylvania is home to over 450,000 ethnic Puerto Ricans who are a little unhappy with the GOP campaign right now. This could be an ugly jack-in-the-box for the Trump campaign.
Some may refer to the selection of Watz as a garbage decision.
While most others see JD Vance as the worst VP pick ever.
President Trump and JD Vance are gonna win Ohio.
And lose Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada, and quite possibly North Carolina.
I'm nowhere near as confident as you.
Let’s talk next week!
Best of luck! 😎
Why don’t you offer an informed opinion once in a blue moon?
My opinion based on the excitement in the presidential race is that President Trump wins ez. President Trump having a blast, VP Harris all negative all the time.
Thanks for asking! Be well
Once again, @dutchmaga lives in the upside down world. Harris is negative?
I guess you forgot the US “is the garbage can of the world”; “they are scum”; “they are garbage”; “she’s so fucking bad”; “that is one dumb woman”; “lowlife”; “dog”; and literally a thousand more, if I wanted to waste more time on someone as morally and intellectually bankrupt as @dutchmaga.
You have zero credibility and you just reinforce, every single day, how devoid of critical thinking skills you are.
The Hollow Man: Trump’s Sad Little Masquerade of Manhood
Behind the bluster and red hats lies a brittle brand of masculinity—a hollow charade that cloaks cowardice, denial, and failure.
https://substack.com/home/post/p-151038838?r=4d7sow&utm_campaign=post&utm_medium=web
Tim Russert had a beautiful soul!
By the way Chris he said sir two or three times in six minutes