I don’t know what the polls are showing for Missouri, but we’re working hard to defeat Josh Hawley. With a constitutional amendment to allow abortions on the ballot, we expect to see more Dems at the ballot box than in past years.
It’s still August and before the Dem convention. Every time Donald and JD talk they give reasonable Republicans reasons not to come out and vote.
Meanwhile the election will make history and lots and lots of people who aren’t political junkies like most of us will want to be part of it. They’ll get onboard.
Smart Republican candidates will want to separate themselves from the fascist fools at the top of the ticket (and the msm hasn’t yet begun to talk about Donald’s age and mental decline, but they will when they know it is safe from his retribution). If we’re seeing a positive trend for the down ticket Dem candidates now, it will only get much better.
The only hope for the GOP is if Donald and Vance drop out (still very possible) and change the entire dynamics.
And note that we haven’t had the hard hitting advertising on Project 2025, insurrectionists, document stealing, felonies, sex with Stormy when Melania had a baby, Covid deaths, Trump deficit tax cuts to the wealthy, anti-nato, dictator on day one, age, slurring words, do you trust this Putin, Kim, Xi, lover with the nuclear bomb.
Get onboard to be part of history. The turnout will be historic.
Really? There’ve been a few times in recent years where we thought these two states might dip into blue territory and we’ve been wrong (Beto didn’t get *nearly* close enough).
What are you seeing? I’m in Los Angeles, and in the EC, we in California just don’t matter, the most populous state in the nation and the 5th largest economy IN. THE. WORLD. It’s infuriating.
My concern is that it’s *very* inappropriate to look at the “Latino vote” as some big monolith, which it absolutely is *not*!
I managed Latin American accounts for decades and traveled throughout Central and South America, and I can tell you that Cubans, a *massive* bloc in FL, are culturally *very* different than Mexicans, Hondurans, Guatemalans, Panamanians, Argentinians, etc. While Harris-Walz is doing well with “generic” Latinos, I’m not sure sure about Cubans, which skew more conservative than their Mexican counterparts.
Trumps exhausting toxicity is FINALLY leaving a mark. Brown and Testor won 6 years ago, when TFG was president. I like their chances this time around, with Trump being on fumes and more of a liability than anything else.
Chris - Given the D Senators are polling so well in those states, is it possible we might see Harris' numbers improve in them as well? If not, could the delta between the Senators support versus Harris' support be going to 3rd party candidates?
I live in Massachusetts. I have made donations to Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown and Angela Alsobrooks (running against Hogan in Maryland). I think "all politics in NOT local" this year. Sorry Tip O'Neill.
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Jon Tester and Sherrod Brown have been excellent Senators for Montana and Ohio and voters would be foolish to not reelect them again.
Not only for their states but for the country!
Absolutely.
I don’t know what the polls are showing for Missouri, but we’re working hard to defeat Josh Hawley. With a constitutional amendment to allow abortions on the ballot, we expect to see more Dems at the ballot box than in past years.
🙏 He needs to go!
My two cents:
It’s still August and before the Dem convention. Every time Donald and JD talk they give reasonable Republicans reasons not to come out and vote.
Meanwhile the election will make history and lots and lots of people who aren’t political junkies like most of us will want to be part of it. They’ll get onboard.
Smart Republican candidates will want to separate themselves from the fascist fools at the top of the ticket (and the msm hasn’t yet begun to talk about Donald’s age and mental decline, but they will when they know it is safe from his retribution). If we’re seeing a positive trend for the down ticket Dem candidates now, it will only get much better.
The only hope for the GOP is if Donald and Vance drop out (still very possible) and change the entire dynamics.
And note that we haven’t had the hard hitting advertising on Project 2025, insurrectionists, document stealing, felonies, sex with Stormy when Melania had a baby, Covid deaths, Trump deficit tax cuts to the wealthy, anti-nato, dictator on day one, age, slurring words, do you trust this Putin, Kim, Xi, lover with the nuclear bomb.
Get onboard to be part of history. The turnout will be historic.
And while it would be a stretch, keep an eye on Texas and, especially, Florida.
Really? There’ve been a few times in recent years where we thought these two states might dip into blue territory and we’ve been wrong (Beto didn’t get *nearly* close enough).
What are you seeing? I’m in Los Angeles, and in the EC, we in California just don’t matter, the most populous state in the nation and the 5th largest economy IN. THE. WORLD. It’s infuriating.
As I said, it's a stretch, but this is the latest out of Florida.
https://floridaphoenix.com/2024/08/14/new-fau-poll-shows-trump-only-up-by-3-points-over-harris-in-florida-50-47/
I think it's possible. Kamala has made big gains with Latinos, +16 the last I knew.
My concern is that it’s *very* inappropriate to look at the “Latino vote” as some big monolith, which it absolutely is *not*!
I managed Latin American accounts for decades and traveled throughout Central and South America, and I can tell you that Cubans, a *massive* bloc in FL, are culturally *very* different than Mexicans, Hondurans, Guatemalans, Panamanians, Argentinians, etc. While Harris-Walz is doing well with “generic” Latinos, I’m not sure sure about Cubans, which skew more conservative than their Mexican counterparts.
I hope both of you are right….
You do matter and your Governor continues to press that point.
Trumps exhausting toxicity is FINALLY leaving a mark. Brown and Testor won 6 years ago, when TFG was president. I like their chances this time around, with Trump being on fumes and more of a liability than anything else.
I'm not writing off Texas and Florida. Tough, but not impossible. I think Brown may win in Ohio, but Montana is going to be tough this cycle.
Which is such a huge bummer. Great senator.
Agreed 💯
Chris - Given the D Senators are polling so well in those states, is it possible we might see Harris' numbers improve in them as well? If not, could the delta between the Senators support versus Harris' support be going to 3rd party candidates?
What about Maryland? Larry Hogan is a reasonable Republican but can he win that Senate seat??
Almost certainly not. Too big a D state in a presidential year
I think Larry Hogan had an outside shot with Biden running, but I think he's cooked now with Harris at the top of the ticket.
Interesting take. Do you think that DSCC will feel comfortable with putting more money in Montana and Ohio as a result?
I live in Massachusetts. I have made donations to Jon Tester, Sherrod Brown and Angela Alsobrooks (running against Hogan in Maryland). I think "all politics in NOT local" this year. Sorry Tip O'Neill.
Montanans really like Jon Tester, based on my visit to the State a couple of years ago. Hopefully, they reelect him.
I too enjoy these comments on Chris’! posts. BTW ITS NATIONAL Apostrophe DAY!
Just a quick kudos, I especially like it when you provide this sort of "more in depth" look at a subject. Thanks!
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