We are only 10(!) days removed from the 2024 election. But, politics moves fast. And there are already things happening that will have major impacts on the 2026 midterms.
The big news Thursday was that Maine Republican Sen. Susan Collins told the Washington Examiner that she is planning to run again in 2026.
Collins said her focus is on her work in the Senate. As the top Republican on the Appropriations Committee, she will be tasked with brokering a deal on government funding before the Dec. 20 deadline.
But she confirmed that she intends to run in two years, when Republicans will be attempting to hold on to a 53-seat majority in the Senate.
“It’s my plan,” she told reporters at the Capitol on Thursday.
“I’m focused on the appropriations process, not elections right now, but my intention is to run,” she added.
Now, saying it’s your “intention” to run isn’t a rock-solid guarantee that you will be on the ballot in almost two years time. Collins will turn 72 next month and may well take a harder look at whether she wants to do this again sometime in 2025.
But, her apparent plan to run again is a BIG win for Republicans. Of the 20 seats they need to defend in 2026, Maine is the only one where Kamala Harris beat Donald Trump on November 5. (Harris won by 7 points.)
Had Collins retired (or if she does at some point between now and 2026), the seat will be very hard for Republicans to hold. Collins, however, has proven her electoral mettle — winning five terms in a Democratic-leaning state. She won her 5th term in 2020 by 9 points even as Joe Biden was winning the state by 9. Which is pretty amazing.
Aside from Collins, the only obvious target for Democrats is North Carolina Sen. Thom Tillis. Tillis won a 2nd term in 2020 with just 49% of the vote.
For Democrats, they will have two obvious vulnerabilities: Sen. Jon Ossoff in Georgia and Sen. Gary Peters in Michigan. Both represent states that Trump won in 2024. Democrats are defending just 13 total seats.
Democrats need a four-seat pickup to retake the majority they lost this year. (Republicans control 53 seats to 47 for Democrats.) If Collins sticks with her decision to run again, those sorts of gains seem unlikely in 2026.
Even New York Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, who is angling to lead the Democrats’ campaign arm in this next election cycle, admitted the challenge in an interview this week.
“I think it’ll take at least two cycles, but I’m willing to do the work,” she told Spectrum News.
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