For those still obsessed with polls, I wonder why the polls are still close when some 60% of the electorate think the Country is going in the wrong direction. One would have expected that close to 60% of the electorate would want to change direction and change to the MAGA cult leader but I wonder why that's not happening.
I think it might be because of people like me. For quite a few years now, I would be within the 60% saying the country is headed in the wrong direction. I believe that my (and other people's) reasons are different. In one sense, I think this question is answered primarily by individual attitudes toward globalization writ large, a backlash against a shrinking middle class. I on the other hand believe we are headed in the wrong direction because a rather large number of people seem not to respect the Constitution and their role in supporting our freedoms. My attitude on this shifted around 2010.
I forgot to add that I've voted for Democrats since 2000 without being one. I've regarded the Republican Party as headed toward authoritarianism since the late 1990s, realized that a statute of limitations could be placed on democracy (since 2000), and when Kerry lost in 2004, I was filled with dread for the future.
That's me exactly. The moderate Dem-leaning Independent. Until I moved to NY and got sick of having no say in the only elections that mattered, primaries. So I registered Dem. I'm pretty sure I'd register Repo in Kansas, for example.
It is notable to me, and thankful, that the most extreme bases are in the MAG-RINOpublican sphere, not the leftyish or left-center-left sphere. Dems, in my lifetime, have always been a little too sloppy and earnest to ever achieve that level of purity, or discipline. That's why talk of Dem plots is laughable to me. If they had discipline and consistency, I might have actually joined them out of interest in being part of something.
Do you know that the GOP is filing law suites NOW in the battleground states challenging the validity of the mail in ballots? Checking to see if they are post mark correctly, if they have been sealed correctly, etc. Forget the polls, they have already begun drawing battle plans to launch an all out war if their candidate doesn't secure a victory.
You need to read former federal prosecutor Joyce Vance’s Civil Discourse column today. She gives a survey on the status of each of those legal cases, and it’s somewhat heartening.
Further, one thing to keep in mind that is somewhat calming in this situation is that ALL of the swing states have Democratic governors and Secretaries of State, with the exception of Georgia, and Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger have proven themselves to be the exception to the rule, ie Republicans that put their job and constituents before their party affiliation.
The rulings are coming in in favor of making NONE of the changes the MAGA Republicans want, if only because they’re too close to this election to be approved.
Apparently there’s a French investment whale that has spent millions with 4 Polymarket accounts. lol. The betting is likely as accurate as a $100 K Chinese Trump watch.
So, the fake polls phenomenon hasn't impacted here yet?
This is why "MSM" or "Corporate" media suck. They sit on shut forever until more people care about something, THEN they start reporting it. It's called REPORTING, folks. It's called NEWS, as in, new information. If you don't report it, it doesn't become something people care about because they don't know.
I've warched deep dives on this from a Ukraine YT who is conversant in all things affecting it, so our politics, budget processes, media working or not, the military. He's smart, he's a veteran and not liberal or conservative, I'd say. When he covered the fact that Republicans are paying for polls and using them to manipulate reporting on polls, he cited another source, who I encountered earlier, by the algorithm. So the story then would be hitting public sites like YouTube, social media, specialized news sites by the first or second week of October. Last week, last Thursday, I finally saw a peep about it on my cable news o' choice, MSNBC. But on Morning Joe who will push things that he thinks needs more visibikity. But the story STILL is not getting ears or eyes. I'd say it's at that point like the Russia Dossier on Trump, everyone in the business and related worlds knows the story, like EVERYONE, but barely a blip in the general public does.
Republican pollsters are sharing publicly what they normally keep internal and which the Dems still do. Polls that look favorable to Trump & his 'licans they releaae publicly. So when voting coverage uses the amalgamation of multiple polls or polling averages, assuming the methodology and results are trustworthy, includes these in their averages and it's giving the whole nation a misperception that it's closer than it looks.
So why do it? Because it makes Trump feel gooder, and because they're preparing the ground for false accusation of election fraud. If Trump loses squeakers, it just helps them. It could backfire by motivating more Harris supporters or Trump-loathers to ensure they vote. If you're lukewarm on Harris but you fucking hate Trump, and he looks to be losing badly, you might not vote. But if you hate that SoB and it looks close, you're more likely to get off ur duff and go vote.
So, they're doing sleazy shit, like the ads they're running in Michigan, what else is new. On the other hand, this mysterious parity is having an effect negatively on America, yet again.
I think it's secretly a good sign. It shows they're down and they know it. But how loudly do you smack the worry-worts over the head if you want to disclose this to them, to reduce the ongoing divisive tension as Harris voters kinda hunt for the inexplicable Trump supporters (u know you are), but ensure people still VOTE FOR HER?
Here you go, doctor, other non-doctors, you tell people polling is flawed, it could be overweighted by intentional pumping by Repos or by pollsters nervously overcompensating for prior recent polling fails. It could be an inversion of 2016 with shy Harris voters this time, places like Kansas and Ohio votes on reproductive rights indicating that possibility, and how deep it could go, btw. So, the answer is, the smartest thing Aaron Rodgers ever said publicly, R-E-L-A-X people. Relax. Do what you need to do, starting with voting against Trump, his autocratic sniveling minions, and his malign foreign influencers, meaning NOT Republican, up and down the ticket. Not just in the Prez but everywhere. Any "R" candidate still running with that label has already compromised too much and harmed America. If you're in Nebraska, vote for the Independent guy for Senate, whatevs. But don't worry about your fellow Americans like that. Doing so is exactly what our enemies want, Putin, Xi, Kim, Orban, Maduro, whoever.
Don't trip folks. Start with what you can do yourself. Don't judge or downtalk or try to beat anyone in an argument. If we do that and hold steady, we're gonna be alright. Okay? Breathe. Focus. Move forward. 👍👍
OUCH!! But true. But those that are for Trump will believe whatever he tells them, ie Jan 6!! The fact the Hitler statement didn't move the needle is scary on SO many different levels. I'm sorry but I have to address the elephant in the room, if the former president does recapture the WH, it will open season on non-Americans (middle-easterners), Latinos, and Afican-Americans and not in that order. So yeah, I am concerned.
To your point, Harris leads 51-45 on democracy so that's an odd thing to make your main focus. I've recently seen other polls where Trump leads on democracy. Breaking with Biden on immigration and highlighting abortion seems like it should be the obvious strategy. And, like commentators noted about her Town Hall - ditch the word salad and talk in real language. It seems like she's trying to play is safe & run out the clock and I'd argue she's behind and needs to engage with voters as a real person vs poll tested language.
She has to play it safe, why because they are just looking for a sound bit to disqualify her. Imagine if Harris said (just) one line from the former president's rally speeches, she would be roasted at every turn, yet the former president is given a pass because this is what he does, yet all he gives is word salad. Is she held to a higher standard then he is? Yet all people want is the Roman Colosseum theatrics along with verbal carnage from this guy.
The data looks great for Harris if you think that House Republicans are competitive with Democrats. That’s a tell that the data doesn’t accurately reflect reality.
This election has been great for America in that it has revealed just how biased against Democracy institutions are and just how bad the data they push is. Don’t take my word for it though. VOTE. And watch.
Would putting an unhinged fascist at the wheel be going in the "right" direction?
And young voters moving toward Trump is unsettling. I wonder how many of those folks could define either fascist or tariff, never mind understanding the impact of those two possibilities on our nation.
My concern with looking closely at the younger demographic in these polls is that they’re fraught with more potential for poor algorithmic results than other demos, as younger people will NOT answer the phone if they don’t recognize the number. That is, because the number of successful calls is *much* lower with that demo, it relies far more on algorithms to “weigh” the result to match the size of the actual demo. The potential for error is dramatically higher.
And the NYT/Siena poll has become far less reliable than it once was, and Republicans are gaming the averages FAR more than Chris is willing to admit. When some of the best minds on Substack disagree with Chris (Jay Kuo, data scientist Tom Bonier, Bulwark writers Tim Miller and JVL, Simon Rosenberg, Heather Cox Richardson, etc), you have to wonder where Chris is getting *his* data from.
Is this poll meaningless? The "country is headed in the wrong direction" statement is too vague to be significant. A lot of Democrats and Harris supporters think the country is headed in the wrong direction if the election is still too close to call, if the country is inadequately prepared for climate change, if their state is losing population or gaining too much population, etc. Is the glass half-empty or half-full? And those who say they were better off 4 years ago (in the middle of a pandemic in which nearly half a million died while Trump was president) simply have vague, hyper-partisan or faulty memories or can't remember why they voted against him in 2020. No doubt voters have painfully felt the impact of inflation due to broken supply chains, but to push-poll blame that entirely on President Biden reveals economic illiteracy. Harris can make the case that she sees an immediate future of low inflation, declinong interest rates, strong growth, low unemployment, affordable health care, protection of democracy and resolution of the border crises by adopting a tough bipartisan consensus bill without Trump's chaos and massive economic disruptions.
If individaul are still saying they were better off 8 years ago, one has to ask, have you not received a raise in 8 years? If not is that the president fault or your own? COVID affected everyone not just the poor. Everyone lost something because of it, this is what Biden had to deal with upon entering the WH. Like Obama have to deal with the financial meltdown of the housing market and banking institutions on Wall St. The former president did nothing to help American citizens through one of worse times since the Great Depression and this is the individual who made there lives better 8 years ago?
All the trend lines seem to be pointing the wrong direction for Harris. She peaked at wrong time and I'm just mentally preparing for what happens with Trump win.
With the electoral college a top line number at 48-48 is not really close, it's good for Trump. Harris probably needs at least a four point lead in the popular vote to win the electoral college.
That said the polls are all over the place, and the polls in the battleground states are sometimes of lesser quality. I have no idea who wins.
What caught my eye about that poll was the 2,500 people for a *national* poll. While that is not unusual, that is 50 people per state. If weighted, it is probably like 6 people in some states. If you catch a different 6 people, those really skew results. The same goes for the age demographics. I find They aren't surveying 18-26 year olds in Wisconsin, and then in Vermont, and then in Florida, etc. to get a statistically relevant sample for each state. They just make sure that demographic is eventually covered in the total numbers, with some reasonable geographic distribution. My point is that I take a lot of those with a grain of salt, especially when they are conducted over just 3 days (which I believe this one was).
The second thing that caught my eye was the right track/wrong track -- which I think has been a crap question for a long time. I am all for Kamala Harris, but I would have said the country is on the wrong track. Wanna know why? Because 46%-48% of the country is currently supportive of a fascist, felon, who has been convicted of sexual assault, tried to lead a coup, and is potentially working on another. Sounds like the wrong track to me. It has *zero* to do with Biden. Right Track / Wrong Track has to do with how you are feeling about the country right now, and I would say that plenty of Harris voters are anxious and nervous like me, so it isn't really being answered from a policy standpoint, and is more being answered from a point of existential dread.
Let’s address the elephant in the room. IF these polls are accurate (and I don’t believe they are), then some 48% of this population is comprised of either idiots, racists or both. If after everything we have seen and heard people are still supporting this man, then something is desperately wrong with this country.
Sorry Chris, but my gut instinct tell me these polls. Suggesting that Harris move far away from Biden's policies at this late time seems both foolish and potentially dangerous. Old people who vote and still like Biden would not receive this swerve very well. It sets Harris up to be criticized as insincere and disloyal, and Trump and Fox News would take great advantage of her switcheroo. The Muslim pop in MI is insane if they vote for Trump and think that will win them any points with. I do not think the Muslim population in Michigan is insane. The "teen boys" cheering squad enamored by Trump and Musk will vote for anything that smells of manhood persona and get-rich nonsense vis Musk, period. These fan boys could care less about Harris pulling away from Biden policies. There voting choice has nothing to do with principle. I see no build-on voter advantage for Harris in dissing Biden in any way - no benefit to it at all. I am surprised you suggest it.
Voters are annoyed by the current state of affairs because we have a "political trainwreck" going on with our election process - not because they have a clear-eyed vision of policies needed that are not being pursued by either candidate. I never cease to be amazed at the interpretations made from these polls which the pols and current MSM revel in. This discussion only serves to keep all voters in a perpetual state of anxiety. Respecfully, what is the point?
It's looking like Harris and Walz gave it the old college try, the numbers are grindily moving in the wrong direction. The Dems will need to get some pros in next time. Gavin Newsom needs to figure out something else he wants to do, nominating a candidate with liberal California all over him in 2028 will be malpractice.
Did they have a breakdown of their sample? Dem Rep conservative liberal MAGA age etc and compare it to turnout in 2020 and 2022 The sampling effects the polls numbers
All of the trends and micro-segments seem to be going in Trump’s favor. Harris’ has run a campaign based on platitudes (turn the page) while not distancing herself on a single issue from Biden. Humphrey broke from Johnson on Vietnam, but too late. He nearly won in 1968. Harris could have split from Biden on (pick em) Spending, taxation, the border, Israel, etc but when pressed never articulated a different path. Why? Because she actually believes in the left position on all of them but doesn’t want to reveal this during the election. Voters see through this.
Harris doesn't "need" to move from Biden. She NEEDS to be herself. People need to grow tfu and get over their petty selves. The best way for a GenZ college student to show support for oppressed peoples is TOTALLY to boycott voting, or vote for Trump, or Jill Stein or whoever. Those kids will never suffer the repercussions of what they set in motion if they tank the election in favor of Trump, but their "allies" will, they'll suffer bigly.
18-24 yr olds seem to just be broken. This pandering to them disgusts me. They vote in low numbers anyway, maybe the voting age should be raised back up to 21 or 25?
I'm just asking questions... (omg, I miss Vivek... not really).
For those still obsessed with polls, I wonder why the polls are still close when some 60% of the electorate think the Country is going in the wrong direction. One would have expected that close to 60% of the electorate would want to change direction and change to the MAGA cult leader but I wonder why that's not happening.
I think it might be because of people like me. For quite a few years now, I would be within the 60% saying the country is headed in the wrong direction. I believe that my (and other people's) reasons are different. In one sense, I think this question is answered primarily by individual attitudes toward globalization writ large, a backlash against a shrinking middle class. I on the other hand believe we are headed in the wrong direction because a rather large number of people seem not to respect the Constitution and their role in supporting our freedoms. My attitude on this shifted around 2010.
I forgot to add that I've voted for Democrats since 2000 without being one. I've regarded the Republican Party as headed toward authoritarianism since the late 1990s, realized that a statute of limitations could be placed on democracy (since 2000), and when Kerry lost in 2004, I was filled with dread for the future.
That's me exactly. The moderate Dem-leaning Independent. Until I moved to NY and got sick of having no say in the only elections that mattered, primaries. So I registered Dem. I'm pretty sure I'd register Repo in Kansas, for example.
It is notable to me, and thankful, that the most extreme bases are in the MAG-RINOpublican sphere, not the leftyish or left-center-left sphere. Dems, in my lifetime, have always been a little too sloppy and earnest to ever achieve that level of purity, or discipline. That's why talk of Dem plots is laughable to me. If they had discipline and consistency, I might have actually joined them out of interest in being part of something.
True. Perhaps the polls are wrong. lol
The polls, WRONG???? NOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!
lol. If you think about it, that’s all Trump Republicans have. The polls. They won’t be happy when they discover that it’s vaporware.
Do you know that the GOP is filing law suites NOW in the battleground states challenging the validity of the mail in ballots? Checking to see if they are post mark correctly, if they have been sealed correctly, etc. Forget the polls, they have already begun drawing battle plans to launch an all out war if their candidate doesn't secure a victory.
You need to read former federal prosecutor Joyce Vance’s Civil Discourse column today. She gives a survey on the status of each of those legal cases, and it’s somewhat heartening.
Further, one thing to keep in mind that is somewhat calming in this situation is that ALL of the swing states have Democratic governors and Secretaries of State, with the exception of Georgia, and Brian Kemp and Brad Raffensperger have proven themselves to be the exception to the rule, ie Republicans that put their job and constituents before their party affiliation.
The rulings are coming in in favor of making NONE of the changes the MAGA Republicans want, if only because they’re too close to this election to be approved.
I think we’re looking pretty good.
Well they also have the betting market. Predictit has Trump up by 14 points.
Apparently there’s a French investment whale that has spent millions with 4 Polymarket accounts. lol. The betting is likely as accurate as a $100 K Chinese Trump watch.
Polymarket is literally the easiest thing to game, if you’re willing to spend enough money to do it, and *clearly* there are those that have done so.
So, the fake polls phenomenon hasn't impacted here yet?
This is why "MSM" or "Corporate" media suck. They sit on shut forever until more people care about something, THEN they start reporting it. It's called REPORTING, folks. It's called NEWS, as in, new information. If you don't report it, it doesn't become something people care about because they don't know.
I've warched deep dives on this from a Ukraine YT who is conversant in all things affecting it, so our politics, budget processes, media working or not, the military. He's smart, he's a veteran and not liberal or conservative, I'd say. When he covered the fact that Republicans are paying for polls and using them to manipulate reporting on polls, he cited another source, who I encountered earlier, by the algorithm. So the story then would be hitting public sites like YouTube, social media, specialized news sites by the first or second week of October. Last week, last Thursday, I finally saw a peep about it on my cable news o' choice, MSNBC. But on Morning Joe who will push things that he thinks needs more visibikity. But the story STILL is not getting ears or eyes. I'd say it's at that point like the Russia Dossier on Trump, everyone in the business and related worlds knows the story, like EVERYONE, but barely a blip in the general public does.
Republican pollsters are sharing publicly what they normally keep internal and which the Dems still do. Polls that look favorable to Trump & his 'licans they releaae publicly. So when voting coverage uses the amalgamation of multiple polls or polling averages, assuming the methodology and results are trustworthy, includes these in their averages and it's giving the whole nation a misperception that it's closer than it looks.
So why do it? Because it makes Trump feel gooder, and because they're preparing the ground for false accusation of election fraud. If Trump loses squeakers, it just helps them. It could backfire by motivating more Harris supporters or Trump-loathers to ensure they vote. If you're lukewarm on Harris but you fucking hate Trump, and he looks to be losing badly, you might not vote. But if you hate that SoB and it looks close, you're more likely to get off ur duff and go vote.
So, they're doing sleazy shit, like the ads they're running in Michigan, what else is new. On the other hand, this mysterious parity is having an effect negatively on America, yet again.
I think it's secretly a good sign. It shows they're down and they know it. But how loudly do you smack the worry-worts over the head if you want to disclose this to them, to reduce the ongoing divisive tension as Harris voters kinda hunt for the inexplicable Trump supporters (u know you are), but ensure people still VOTE FOR HER?
Here you go, doctor, other non-doctors, you tell people polling is flawed, it could be overweighted by intentional pumping by Repos or by pollsters nervously overcompensating for prior recent polling fails. It could be an inversion of 2016 with shy Harris voters this time, places like Kansas and Ohio votes on reproductive rights indicating that possibility, and how deep it could go, btw. So, the answer is, the smartest thing Aaron Rodgers ever said publicly, R-E-L-A-X people. Relax. Do what you need to do, starting with voting against Trump, his autocratic sniveling minions, and his malign foreign influencers, meaning NOT Republican, up and down the ticket. Not just in the Prez but everywhere. Any "R" candidate still running with that label has already compromised too much and harmed America. If you're in Nebraska, vote for the Independent guy for Senate, whatevs. But don't worry about your fellow Americans like that. Doing so is exactly what our enemies want, Putin, Xi, Kim, Orban, Maduro, whoever.
Don't trip folks. Start with what you can do yourself. Don't judge or downtalk or try to beat anyone in an argument. If we do that and hold steady, we're gonna be alright. Okay? Breathe. Focus. Move forward. 👍👍
Yeah, if 60% of the electorate think the country is going in the wrong direction, then even Hitler would be winning over Harris by at least 20 points.
OUCH!! But true. But those that are for Trump will believe whatever he tells them, ie Jan 6!! The fact the Hitler statement didn't move the needle is scary on SO many different levels. I'm sorry but I have to address the elephant in the room, if the former president does recapture the WH, it will open season on non-Americans (middle-easterners), Latinos, and Afican-Americans and not in that order. So yeah, I am concerned.
To your point, Harris leads 51-45 on democracy so that's an odd thing to make your main focus. I've recently seen other polls where Trump leads on democracy. Breaking with Biden on immigration and highlighting abortion seems like it should be the obvious strategy. And, like commentators noted about her Town Hall - ditch the word salad and talk in real language. It seems like she's trying to play is safe & run out the clock and I'd argue she's behind and needs to engage with voters as a real person vs poll tested language.
She has to play it safe, why because they are just looking for a sound bit to disqualify her. Imagine if Harris said (just) one line from the former president's rally speeches, she would be roasted at every turn, yet the former president is given a pass because this is what he does, yet all he gives is word salad. Is she held to a higher standard then he is? Yet all people want is the Roman Colosseum theatrics along with verbal carnage from this guy.
Word garbage. Salads are tasty.
The data looks great for Harris if you think that House Republicans are competitive with Democrats. That’s a tell that the data doesn’t accurately reflect reality.
This election has been great for America in that it has revealed just how biased against Democracy institutions are and just how bad the data they push is. Don’t take my word for it though. VOTE. And watch.
Would putting an unhinged fascist at the wheel be going in the "right" direction?
And young voters moving toward Trump is unsettling. I wonder how many of those folks could define either fascist or tariff, never mind understanding the impact of those two possibilities on our nation.
My concern with looking closely at the younger demographic in these polls is that they’re fraught with more potential for poor algorithmic results than other demos, as younger people will NOT answer the phone if they don’t recognize the number. That is, because the number of successful calls is *much* lower with that demo, it relies far more on algorithms to “weigh” the result to match the size of the actual demo. The potential for error is dramatically higher.
And the NYT/Siena poll has become far less reliable than it once was, and Republicans are gaming the averages FAR more than Chris is willing to admit. When some of the best minds on Substack disagree with Chris (Jay Kuo, data scientist Tom Bonier, Bulwark writers Tim Miller and JVL, Simon Rosenberg, Heather Cox Richardson, etc), you have to wonder where Chris is getting *his* data from.
Is this poll meaningless? The "country is headed in the wrong direction" statement is too vague to be significant. A lot of Democrats and Harris supporters think the country is headed in the wrong direction if the election is still too close to call, if the country is inadequately prepared for climate change, if their state is losing population or gaining too much population, etc. Is the glass half-empty or half-full? And those who say they were better off 4 years ago (in the middle of a pandemic in which nearly half a million died while Trump was president) simply have vague, hyper-partisan or faulty memories or can't remember why they voted against him in 2020. No doubt voters have painfully felt the impact of inflation due to broken supply chains, but to push-poll blame that entirely on President Biden reveals economic illiteracy. Harris can make the case that she sees an immediate future of low inflation, declinong interest rates, strong growth, low unemployment, affordable health care, protection of democracy and resolution of the border crises by adopting a tough bipartisan consensus bill without Trump's chaos and massive economic disruptions.
If individaul are still saying they were better off 8 years ago, one has to ask, have you not received a raise in 8 years? If not is that the president fault or your own? COVID affected everyone not just the poor. Everyone lost something because of it, this is what Biden had to deal with upon entering the WH. Like Obama have to deal with the financial meltdown of the housing market and banking institutions on Wall St. The former president did nothing to help American citizens through one of worse times since the Great Depression and this is the individual who made there lives better 8 years ago?
All the trend lines seem to be pointing the wrong direction for Harris. She peaked at wrong time and I'm just mentally preparing for what happens with Trump win.
With the electoral college a top line number at 48-48 is not really close, it's good for Trump. Harris probably needs at least a four point lead in the popular vote to win the electoral college.
That said the polls are all over the place, and the polls in the battleground states are sometimes of lesser quality. I have no idea who wins.
What caught my eye about that poll was the 2,500 people for a *national* poll. While that is not unusual, that is 50 people per state. If weighted, it is probably like 6 people in some states. If you catch a different 6 people, those really skew results. The same goes for the age demographics. I find They aren't surveying 18-26 year olds in Wisconsin, and then in Vermont, and then in Florida, etc. to get a statistically relevant sample for each state. They just make sure that demographic is eventually covered in the total numbers, with some reasonable geographic distribution. My point is that I take a lot of those with a grain of salt, especially when they are conducted over just 3 days (which I believe this one was).
The second thing that caught my eye was the right track/wrong track -- which I think has been a crap question for a long time. I am all for Kamala Harris, but I would have said the country is on the wrong track. Wanna know why? Because 46%-48% of the country is currently supportive of a fascist, felon, who has been convicted of sexual assault, tried to lead a coup, and is potentially working on another. Sounds like the wrong track to me. It has *zero* to do with Biden. Right Track / Wrong Track has to do with how you are feeling about the country right now, and I would say that plenty of Harris voters are anxious and nervous like me, so it isn't really being answered from a policy standpoint, and is more being answered from a point of existential dread.
Let’s address the elephant in the room. IF these polls are accurate (and I don’t believe they are), then some 48% of this population is comprised of either idiots, racists or both. If after everything we have seen and heard people are still supporting this man, then something is desperately wrong with this country.
Every time a conversation about the election begins, the first question is, “What is wrong with these people who will vote for Trump?”
Sorry Chris, but my gut instinct tell me these polls. Suggesting that Harris move far away from Biden's policies at this late time seems both foolish and potentially dangerous. Old people who vote and still like Biden would not receive this swerve very well. It sets Harris up to be criticized as insincere and disloyal, and Trump and Fox News would take great advantage of her switcheroo. The Muslim pop in MI is insane if they vote for Trump and think that will win them any points with. I do not think the Muslim population in Michigan is insane. The "teen boys" cheering squad enamored by Trump and Musk will vote for anything that smells of manhood persona and get-rich nonsense vis Musk, period. These fan boys could care less about Harris pulling away from Biden policies. There voting choice has nothing to do with principle. I see no build-on voter advantage for Harris in dissing Biden in any way - no benefit to it at all. I am surprised you suggest it.
Voters are annoyed by the current state of affairs because we have a "political trainwreck" going on with our election process - not because they have a clear-eyed vision of policies needed that are not being pursued by either candidate. I never cease to be amazed at the interpretations made from these polls which the pols and current MSM revel in. This discussion only serves to keep all voters in a perpetual state of anxiety. Respecfully, what is the point?
The country is heading in the wrong direction because we have Trump and his supporters in it.
It's looking like Harris and Walz gave it the old college try, the numbers are grindily moving in the wrong direction. The Dems will need to get some pros in next time. Gavin Newsom needs to figure out something else he wants to do, nominating a candidate with liberal California all over him in 2028 will be malpractice.
Did they have a breakdown of their sample? Dem Rep conservative liberal MAGA age etc and compare it to turnout in 2020 and 2022 The sampling effects the polls numbers
This guy is so worthless
All of the trends and micro-segments seem to be going in Trump’s favor. Harris’ has run a campaign based on platitudes (turn the page) while not distancing herself on a single issue from Biden. Humphrey broke from Johnson on Vietnam, but too late. He nearly won in 1968. Harris could have split from Biden on (pick em) Spending, taxation, the border, Israel, etc but when pressed never articulated a different path. Why? Because she actually believes in the left position on all of them but doesn’t want to reveal this during the election. Voters see through this.
Lace is getting it wrong again.
Harris doesn't "need" to move from Biden. She NEEDS to be herself. People need to grow tfu and get over their petty selves. The best way for a GenZ college student to show support for oppressed peoples is TOTALLY to boycott voting, or vote for Trump, or Jill Stein or whoever. Those kids will never suffer the repercussions of what they set in motion if they tank the election in favor of Trump, but their "allies" will, they'll suffer bigly.
18-24 yr olds seem to just be broken. This pandering to them disgusts me. They vote in low numbers anyway, maybe the voting age should be raised back up to 21 or 25?
I'm just asking questions... (omg, I miss Vivek... not really).