Over the weekend, Donald Trump cited the size of Arnold Palmer’s, er, manhood at a rally in Pennsylvania and then “worked” at a closed McDonald's — where he took no orders! —to highlight his obsession over whether Kamala Harris worked at the Golden Arches as a kid.
What a world!
And yet, with 15 days left before the election, there is no doubt that Trump is in the best polling shape he’s been in for at least the last 2 months. The data over the last two weeks reveals slight — but consistent — movement toward him, a shown by the New York Times’ polling averages.
As the Times’ Nate Cohn writes:
Last week, we noted that the averages were tightening, but we were a little reluctant to say whether there was real movement. One or two good polls for Ms. Harris could have canceled out the tightening pretty quickly.
This past week’s polls made a clearer case for movement toward Mr. Trump.
That polling movement toward Trump is reflected in the major election models — all four of which now, narrowly, predict that the former president is favored to win. Here’s 538. And Nate Silver. And Decision Desk HQ. And, over the weekend, The Economist model, which had shown Harris more likely to win for months, flipped to Trump as well.
To be clear: ALL of the available data — polling and election models — show this race to be very, very close. This is, and will remain, a toss up.
But, today, Trump is on the (slight) upswing — and is in the best polling spot he’s been in over the last two months.
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