I am so with you in everything you said. I will add embarrassed for our country on the world stage. Hearing from her German relatives, my friend who grew up in Nazi Germany said T is a laughing stock and they don’t understand how Americans could support such a buffoon.
In 2016 many were afraid to go public with their support for Trump so the polls missed them. This year, I think it goes the other way. Who are the polls going to miss? Republicans that just can’t stomach Trump but won’t go public with their feelings about him. The other group: new young voters that the polls will miss. These 2 groups will decide this election.
Early voting is heavy. These are likely Harris voters. Keep the faith and keep working.
I encountered two lifelong and quite public Republicans this weekend who reached out to tell me that they were terrified that Trump might actually win and that they were voting for Harris. Obviously, these are quite patriotic people.
The psychological effects he plays are working, once again. For the life of me, I can’t understand how any individual could vote for T. Having said that, he’s played the psychological game his entire life, and continues to brain wash those that can’t see through it. Totalitarianism at its finest, and clearly more than 50% of American’s are somehow okay with this!?!? Frankly, I’ve never felt so concerned over where things could be headed in US. Tell me, please, his October surprise hasn’t happened yet!
Half of me says he is far too stupid to even know what he is doing and the other half says he is the most evil, diabolical mad scientist manipulating the entire world. Perhaps both are correct. Then I read the comments that the real "swamp" wants to get him in and then use the 25th Amendment to take him out and install (coronate) Vance, and that would not shock me at all.
I think Trump's ridiculous claims that "manhood is under attack" might actually be working in places like here in Iowa, where we were told over the weekend that many of the Harris signs around town have been stolen or destroyed by MAGAts even though Trump is going to win this state pretty easily....so what's the point? I honestly think if Kamala Harris was Joe Harris instead that Trump would be losing bigly. I just think there are a lot of fragile men who will never vote for a woman. Sadly, I know a few of them.
If women are at an inherent disadvantage in presidential elections, why do your party leadership keep trying to place them in? Do they care more about the first woman president being a democrat more than returning abortion rights to women or saving the environment? That’s what it seems to me tbh but could be wrong
I would have preferred that Biden never ran in the first place, and the Dems could have had a primary with multiple candidates. Like Chris said, Shapiro and Whitmer might have (would have been) better candidates.
I have a tough time believing that Kamala Harris will outperform Biden in Pennsylvania, since he was a native there and born and raised in Scranton. Kamala is from SF, and national polls are much closer than in 2020. But we'll see, the case of the dems is that the demographics have shifted so much in the past 4 years in the state
The only way for poll predictions to be made wrong is to vote. Just do it. And if you can help someone get to the polls, do that. Remember that Nate Silver thought that Hillary Clinton would win handily.
It's not difficult to figure out the McDonald's thing. It's his favorite restaurant. He's jealous. How dare she have worked at his favorite restaurant. It's just part of who he is. Disgusting.
But wait, weren't you preaching a couple of weeks ago to ignore polling averages? And, what about the latest WaPo poll showing Harris with a slight lead in battleground states, including GA and the blue wall states?
And what about EARLY voting, how in PA WI MI, even TX and FL, show registered Democrats outnumbering registered Republicans? Those are actual numbers of millions of people voting, not 1000 snapshots of "likely" voters.
Trump has more strong supporters than Harris - maybe 35% vs 20%. The double haters are a large group but the democratic brand is more toxic than the Trump brand. It might have been Chris that noted Harris needs that Sister Souljah moment where she takes on an extreme left wing policy to reassure people she's not one of them.
I'd argue she was doomed when she agreed to keep on Biden's campaign team - they needed a new & fresh approach. 65% of the electorate doesn't have a college degree - they need to get away from their elite consultant class and get a team that understands how the majority of Americans think and what they care about.
Baloney. This becomes propaganda if you’re claiming one candidate is ahead within the margin of error. Trump or Harris being up or down 3 points or 0.1 is the same. You need to explain this more clearly.
And you should also talk about survey error too. Because every special election for the last 2 years which the Democrats have won handily has been prone to it.
Between 1988 and 2020, the final national polling average was off by an average of 2.3 percentage points. lol
Using polling stories without explaining these things, in order to drive views, is very cynical Chris.
I think Chris' point, which I've noticed over the last two weeks as well, is that the polls have been slightly moving towards Trump. They may be off (I personally hope so!), but even if they are off they are still capturing a move towards the former president. To me, this means that the undecided voters - at this point in the cycle - are gravitating towards Trump, albeit in small numbers.
That said - there are still more undecided voters, hopefully the late-late-breaking ones go towards Harris, and maybe <fingers crossed> the polls are generally over-estimating Trump's support.
I think Harris has done a poor job of defining herself (and what her plans are that would break from Biden), and the slew of negative attack ads are defining her (rightly or wrongly). This was going to be her challenge when she was slow to get into the public. Joy is hard to carry when people want change (and this push against incumbents has been a post Covid world wide phenomenon).
Disheartening that so many fellow Americans view FPOTUS as a viable option. As in 2016, 2020, and now I remain perplexed (& disappointed) how so many of my family and friends view FPOTUS their choice. After 6 JAN 2021, I thought the one good thing of that horrible day is all would realize how immoral the guy is and he would be swept off into the dustbin of history. Then Kevin McCarthy plus the majority of Republican leaders began to bend the knee enabling FPOTUS comeback. Unbelievable. I'll proudly tell anyone, Mr Trump has not nor will he receive a vote from me. Mr Trump is absolutely unfit to be our President and Commander in Chief. I can only hope the polls are off.
Exactly. As many have noted, if it was anyone but Trump, the R's would win easily. The anti-incumbent mood around the world isn't in her favor. The further she can distance herself from Biden, the better her odds. There is a reason why only 1 sitting VP in the last 100 years has won and that was following a hugely popular President (Biden is not).
Yes Chris, look at the "data and facts " and then highlight when you think it favors the MAGA cult leader. The "data and facts" have been there for the past several months showing Harris leading in all the models you cited. But you didn't talk about it then
Too funny - I usually don't read the comments, but couldn't help myself this morning because I was thinking "People are going to be mad at Chris for pointing this out" and, as you accurately guessed, "Yep."
About half of Americans want to be characters in a Trump led reality show. It is a fantasy program, where they get to imagine that they are living in his gilded palace and being entertained nightly by the Orange King of Comedy. Wake up, people. You dopes are about to elect an indecent fascist idiot as president. Geez.
Then there's that other predictor - Alan Lichtman's 13 keys. In recent interviews, he still seems confident that his method works and that Harris will win.
sad.
pathetic.
an indictment on our country that we are even in this place.
hopeful the polling is wrong.
Please God!!!!
I am so with you in everything you said. I will add embarrassed for our country on the world stage. Hearing from her German relatives, my friend who grew up in Nazi Germany said T is a laughing stock and they don’t understand how Americans could support such a buffoon.
Yes, hopefully the polling is wrong and is not picking up the coming Trump landslide.
When has the polling NOT been wrong?
Yeah, stupid polls! I hate it when my candidate is obviously slipping, they gotta be all wrong.
Only a couple of weeks to go! Get the popcorn ready to pop it’s gonna be a show! 😎
I agree about the popcorn.
In 2016 many were afraid to go public with their support for Trump so the polls missed them. This year, I think it goes the other way. Who are the polls going to miss? Republicans that just can’t stomach Trump but won’t go public with their feelings about him. The other group: new young voters that the polls will miss. These 2 groups will decide this election.
Early voting is heavy. These are likely Harris voters. Keep the faith and keep working.
I encountered two lifelong and quite public Republicans this weekend who reached out to tell me that they were terrified that Trump might actually win and that they were voting for Harris. Obviously, these are quite patriotic people.
I think this is true. We will find out shortly.
The psychological effects he plays are working, once again. For the life of me, I can’t understand how any individual could vote for T. Having said that, he’s played the psychological game his entire life, and continues to brain wash those that can’t see through it. Totalitarianism at its finest, and clearly more than 50% of American’s are somehow okay with this!?!? Frankly, I’ve never felt so concerned over where things could be headed in US. Tell me, please, his October surprise hasn’t happened yet!
I'm torn on this.
Half of me says he is far too stupid to even know what he is doing and the other half says he is the most evil, diabolical mad scientist manipulating the entire world. Perhaps both are correct. Then I read the comments that the real "swamp" wants to get him in and then use the 25th Amendment to take him out and install (coronate) Vance, and that would not shock me at all.
What has happened to our great country?
I think Trump's ridiculous claims that "manhood is under attack" might actually be working in places like here in Iowa, where we were told over the weekend that many of the Harris signs around town have been stolen or destroyed by MAGAts even though Trump is going to win this state pretty easily....so what's the point? I honestly think if Kamala Harris was Joe Harris instead that Trump would be losing bigly. I just think there are a lot of fragile men who will never vote for a woman. Sadly, I know a few of them.
Some guy on twitter was like “Democrats need to do better at speaking to young men”.
Many of the replies from Democratic women were certainly consistent with the idea that manhood is under attack.
If women are at an inherent disadvantage in presidential elections, why do your party leadership keep trying to place them in? Do they care more about the first woman president being a democrat more than returning abortion rights to women or saving the environment? That’s what it seems to me tbh but could be wrong
I would have preferred that Biden never ran in the first place, and the Dems could have had a primary with multiple candidates. Like Chris said, Shapiro and Whitmer might have (would have been) better candidates.
I have a tough time believing that Kamala Harris will outperform Biden in Pennsylvania, since he was a native there and born and raised in Scranton. Kamala is from SF, and national polls are much closer than in 2020. But we'll see, the case of the dems is that the demographics have shifted so much in the past 4 years in the state
Tell us how any sentient being could be moving toward that man
The only way for poll predictions to be made wrong is to vote. Just do it. And if you can help someone get to the polls, do that. Remember that Nate Silver thought that Hillary Clinton would win handily.
Amen. Absentee ballots for myself and husband are filled out sent in and clocked as received. Now to bite finger nails til 11/10.
It's not difficult to figure out the McDonald's thing. It's his favorite restaurant. He's jealous. How dare she have worked at his favorite restaurant. It's just part of who he is. Disgusting.
Yup!
But wait, weren't you preaching a couple of weeks ago to ignore polling averages? And, what about the latest WaPo poll showing Harris with a slight lead in battleground states, including GA and the blue wall states?
And what about EARLY voting, how in PA WI MI, even TX and FL, show registered Democrats outnumbering registered Republicans? Those are actual numbers of millions of people voting, not 1000 snapshots of "likely" voters.
Trump has more strong supporters than Harris - maybe 35% vs 20%. The double haters are a large group but the democratic brand is more toxic than the Trump brand. It might have been Chris that noted Harris needs that Sister Souljah moment where she takes on an extreme left wing policy to reassure people she's not one of them.
I'd argue she was doomed when she agreed to keep on Biden's campaign team - they needed a new & fresh approach. 65% of the electorate doesn't have a college degree - they need to get away from their elite consultant class and get a team that understands how the majority of Americans think and what they care about.
I don’t think a Sistah Souljah moment is coming because, as the VP keeps telling us, her values haven’t changed.
Baloney. This becomes propaganda if you’re claiming one candidate is ahead within the margin of error. Trump or Harris being up or down 3 points or 0.1 is the same. You need to explain this more clearly.
And you should also talk about survey error too. Because every special election for the last 2 years which the Democrats have won handily has been prone to it.
Between 1988 and 2020, the final national polling average was off by an average of 2.3 percentage points. lol
Using polling stories without explaining these things, in order to drive views, is very cynical Chris.
This is what the media are failing us.
I think Chris' point, which I've noticed over the last two weeks as well, is that the polls have been slightly moving towards Trump. They may be off (I personally hope so!), but even if they are off they are still capturing a move towards the former president. To me, this means that the undecided voters - at this point in the cycle - are gravitating towards Trump, albeit in small numbers.
That said - there are still more undecided voters, hopefully the late-late-breaking ones go towards Harris, and maybe <fingers crossed> the polls are generally over-estimating Trump's support.
The Washington Post/Schar numbers seem like a toss-up (as usual) but with Harris slightly leading. I thought they looked good for her.
I think Harris has done a poor job of defining herself (and what her plans are that would break from Biden), and the slew of negative attack ads are defining her (rightly or wrongly). This was going to be her challenge when she was slow to get into the public. Joy is hard to carry when people want change (and this push against incumbents has been a post Covid world wide phenomenon).
Disheartening that so many fellow Americans view FPOTUS as a viable option. As in 2016, 2020, and now I remain perplexed (& disappointed) how so many of my family and friends view FPOTUS their choice. After 6 JAN 2021, I thought the one good thing of that horrible day is all would realize how immoral the guy is and he would be swept off into the dustbin of history. Then Kevin McCarthy plus the majority of Republican leaders began to bend the knee enabling FPOTUS comeback. Unbelievable. I'll proudly tell anyone, Mr Trump has not nor will he receive a vote from me. Mr Trump is absolutely unfit to be our President and Commander in Chief. I can only hope the polls are off.
O Chris!
Incoming onslaught in the comments coming sure as the sun rises each morning, gonna get ugly…….
I just look at the data and the facts! Always have, always will.
Exactly. As many have noted, if it was anyone but Trump, the R's would win easily. The anti-incumbent mood around the world isn't in her favor. The further she can distance herself from Biden, the better her odds. There is a reason why only 1 sitting VP in the last 100 years has won and that was following a hugely popular President (Biden is not).
Yes Chris, look at the "data and facts " and then highlight when you think it favors the MAGA cult leader. The "data and facts" have been there for the past several months showing Harris leading in all the models you cited. But you didn't talk about it then
Too funny - I usually don't read the comments, but couldn't help myself this morning because I was thinking "People are going to be mad at Chris for pointing this out" and, as you accurately guessed, "Yep."
“Facts don’t care about your feelings”
About half of Americans want to be characters in a Trump led reality show. It is a fantasy program, where they get to imagine that they are living in his gilded palace and being entertained nightly by the Orange King of Comedy. Wake up, people. You dopes are about to elect an indecent fascist idiot as president. Geez.
Then there's that other predictor - Alan Lichtman's 13 keys. In recent interviews, he still seems confident that his method works and that Harris will win.
I hope so, but I'm not that sure.
I'm sure he is right. Plus he is not the only predictor who thinks so.
Chris, your trafficking in propagandist Polymarket poll manipulation- pls reconsider the track your on.
💯!
Not sure what is more surprising, Trump discussing eating pets or Arnold Palmer’s genitals. Hard to believe he may actually be president again