At the beginning of July, John Della Volpe, the leading pollster of young people in the country, released a survey with some dire news for Democrats.
Among 18-29 year old voters, a critical part of the Democratic base, only 1 in 3 had a favorable view of Vice President Kamala Harris. And she was trailing Donald Trump 48%-44% in a head-to-head matchup with those younger voters.
Six weeks later, things have changed drastically. In a new poll released Monday morning by Della Volpe, Harris is up to 49% favorable — and leads Trump by 9 points in both a 5-way race and a 2-way race.
Which is a BIG difference — and explains a lot of why Harris is now beating Trump — nationally and in swing states — whereas Biden was losing. (Biden was badly underperforming among young voters.)
There’s challenge and opportunity for Harris among 18-29 year old voters. Yes, she is doing better than Biden. But she is not doing nearly as well as any of the past four Democratic presidential candidates did among that group.
Here’s a quick breakdown:
2020: Biden won 18-29 year olds by 25 points
2016: Hillary Clinton +16 among young voters
2012: Barack Obama beat Mitt Romney by 23 points
2002: Obama crushed John McCain 66%-32% among 18-29 year old voters.
Seen through an optimistic Democratic lens, Harris still has room to grow among those reliably Democratic voters. Seen more pessimistically, she is still underperforming past Democratic nominees among 18-29 years olds.
All that and more in today’s edition of The Morning.
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The Morning: Why Kamala Harris is winning