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Harris was also handed a presidential election where this country is basically in the 7th Level of Hell still after Trumps time in office. Biden did a lot yes but the people are still healing and with Trump still spewing his hatred I'd say Harris is doing a great job coming in as the presidential nominee late in the game. With the momentum she has, she will win hands down

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Why Kamala Harris is winning? Because she is GREAT.

I still feel awful for how badly Joe was treated and I think he’s been an incredible president. I must say, though, that the energy, joy, and positive vibes by the Harris campaign are making many of us feel optimistic and hopeful. The other thing I really like is that Harris and Walz are fighting hard.

Also love the great sense of humor, media/internet savvy, and the immediate clap backs to the MAGAs out there. They’re totally on the ball!

Imagine wearing this "Kamala removes stubborn orange stains" shirt in front of MAGAs 👇

https://libtees-2.creator-spring.com/listing/votek

The more joy Harris/Walz spreads the more doom and gloom Trump will spew!

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The key is getting those youth voters to show up.

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They'll show up. It helps that one can vote early and/or by mail.

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Ah Chris, You're such a nice guy and I like you a lot, BUT:

It's NOT the youth vote, stupid!

It's NOT the economy, stupid!

It's the joy, and the relief of having a capable ticket that is new and fresh and bright...and that's not stupid. We're looking at a big win for the Harris-Walz presidency.

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^^^ THIS ^^^

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I agree 100%!!💯 🎉

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I’d also argue that the 18-29 demographic demonstrates that JD Vance is factually WRONG (never mind that it’s offensive and politically stupid) in claiming that childless people have less of a stake in this country’s future. If you’re 21 and childless, you have 70 years to look forward to of student debt, climate catastrophe, multi-trillions national debt, political dysfunction etc etc. any of those people who apply a few minutes’ thought surely would conclude they have a HUGE stake in the future, regardless of child status. I hope KH/TW make this point repeatedly in the next 80 crazy days

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Well said. I think the selection of JD Vance was a huge mistake. He has offended so many voters, especially young voters. His political instincts seem to be awful. I think we are going to see the Harris/Walz numbers continue to increase. I think I smell a Harris victory! Or maybe it is just my toast. I get confused.😎

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Based on numerous conversations with some of my kids' friends over the last week, I think it takes younger folks longer to catch on. Although ahead of us re most trends, younger folks don't follow the polls or read traditional daily news outlets as much. Some of the younger folks I talked with this weekend were unaware of Kamala's momentum in the polls. So, yes, I agree there is room for her lead to grow.

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I agree. I think young people and women of all ages are going to de ide this election, if they turn out and vote. So enthusiasm is the key and if you are paying attention to social media, Harris and Walz are just blowing up on tic tok. Harris, thus far, is running a really smart campaign and the choice of Walz is looking better every day. It is going to be interesting.

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Why are your posts so negative on Harris? A republican "should" win the election (paraphrasing), and this one. I think you maybe missing the moment where people are going to choose FOR abortion rights, affordable care, free school maals, combatting climax charge and so on and AGAINST hate, venom, schoolyard building, incoherence, infrastructure week 2 weeks from now, and ALL THE WINNING, that never happend. Sorry Chris, me thinks you are wrong. Maybe not by numbers, but by sentiment.

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I don't think Chris is "negative", but he does seem to be ignoring the fact that Harris just got into the race a few weeks ago. Young people who were unhappy about two old white dudes running are now seeing the fresh face of Harris, and are registering to vote. I think the polls will reflect more the young people being enthused as Labor Day approaches.

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Absolutely. We haven’t even had the convention or the serious reminders of what kind of creature Trump is (rapist, insurrectionist, document stealing traitor, anti climate, anti abortion, anti middle class, paid $130,000 and committed 34 felonies to hide that when Melania had a baby he had sex with Stormy) Harris will benefit greatly from the desire of being part of history. Who wouldn’t want to be able to say they were there.

The big question I have is what happens if Trump quits? Who takes over?

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founding

Chris Cilliza is frustrated and disappointed that the 78 years old convicted felon is not winning , rather the younger , intelligent and poised lady is winning and her momentum keeps rising rather than declining. Hans , expect to see more negative posts from Chris about Harris. But guess what though, it's not going to affect Harris and her campaign in anyways.

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How is this post "negative"? It's an analysis of polling data and thoughts about opportunities and challenges.

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It is negatieve, because it focus solely onone demographic. Where is a post on the momenten, the energy?

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1) Not every column is required to deal with every demographic; 2) even as to this demographic, the point is Kamala is doing better and has room for more growth.Btw, you know Cillizza isn't supposed to be promoting Kamala, right? It's a news analysis site, not a campaign outlet.

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On that I agree

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I know Chris doesn't like to acknowledge Trump's severe cognitive decline which is becoming harder and harder to ignore. Over the weekend Trump claimed that the massive crowds turning out for Harris/Walz were "fake" and were created by AI. How can anyone pretending to be sane make such claims?

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Here's something I'd like to see at a future Harris or Walz rally. It's a bit long, but I hope you will indulge me.

I want to thank everyone for the exciting and enthusiastic welcome you've given us here in __________ today. Before we leave, I want to take a moment to discuss a very serious matter.

Many of us know what's it's like, first-hand, to deal with a parent or other older relative suffering from diminished mental capabilities. Sometimes it's somewhat mild, such as thinking a beloved pet from their past is still alive. Other times it's far more serious and you need to coordinate with medical professionals to determine the best path forward.

A few days ago Donald Trump said that all of you here tonight aren't really here. He said I'm the only one at this rally, and that I'm using Artificial Intelligence to create the appearance that you're here. At the same time he said he was in a helicopter with Willie Brown that almost crashed. Willie Brown said this event never happened. Donald Trump has always been very insecure regarding the size of the crowds at his events, and he recently said that he had more attendees in Washington on January 6th than Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr had during his "I have a Dream" speech.

Donald Trump has also said that no one was killed during the January 6th attack on the US Capitol, that Nikki Haley - not Nancy Pelosi - was Speaker of the House on January 6th, and that he ran against Barrack Obama in the 2016 election. He believes there was a vast conspiracy that stole the 2020 election from him. He said Vladimir Putin will release American prisoners in Russia just by asking, and that he can end Russia's invasion of Ukraine in one day - but won't tell us how.

He said that unless he's elected, we'll have World War 3 and a global economic crash.

He said that windmills kill whales, forest fires can be prevented by raking the forest floor, and that bright lights, household bleach, and horse medications are possible cures for the covid virus.

I'm not a medical professional, nor am I going to diagnose Donald Trump's mental capacities here tonight. But if, in fact, Donald Trump is experiencing diminishing mental capabilities due to his advanced age, we should all be sympathetic to his condition. We should keep him in our thoughts and prayers, but under no circumstances should we put Donald Trump in the position of being President of these great United States.

Thank you, good night, and may God bless America.

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I don't think that Harris or Walz should say that... but SOMEBODY should. :)

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What an excellent commentary. Well done!

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founding

And he(Trump) also lied that he was in a Helicopter that almost crashed with a Mr Brown .

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Following Biden's less-than-stellar debate performance, the American mainstream media was so far up his ass that he could be forgiven he thought he was getting an unapproved colonoscopy. Trump has a completely fact-free, train-off-the-rails, paranoid, diarrhea-spewing "press conference" and our wonderful absolutely unbiased American mainstream media provides ABSOLUTELY ZERO PUSH-BACK against the BS he was saying. Why?

At the recent Black Journalists event, the lead panelist asked Trump a very probing and factual question. Yet when his reply was "you're a nasty person for asking me that", there was ABSOLUTELY ZERO PUSH-BACK against his statement. Why?

On ABC, Dana Bash asked JD Vance if he thought Trump actually had bone spurs. She at least gave it the old-college-try, but also didn't forcefully press him for an answer, and moved on to the next topic.

Why?

In RawStory.com there's an excellent post from Robert Reich titled "Why isn't the media reporting on Trump's increasing dementia?" (https://www.rawstory.com/trump-dementia-2668945017/)

Then we have Chris Cillizza who favors the "bothsidesism" or "whataboutism" argument, or simply the Sgt. Schultz approach ("I know NOTHING") and just ignores the entire issue.

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We may be over-thinking ..or over-analyzing this. We know that a large majority of voters of all ages thought Biden was too old and should not run. Then the debate disaster drove that point home. When JB Finally stepped aside, there was a tsunami of relief and then excitement, mostly over the nominee NOT being a rapidly failing geriatric. Is KH off to a good start? Unquestionably. Can she take it to the house? We will see.

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Totally agree. The incredibly complex voter psychology of the silent majority is still up for grabs. They will decide the outcome, not partisans.

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No matter if she wins trump won't concede.

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No way he will!

Especially to a woman who is also black. If you think it was bad 4 years ago with the Biden win, wait til Harris wins! Gonna be a shitstorm. So looking forward to him losing yet again!!

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founding

Me too!!! Can't wait!!!

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It could potentially get very dark after the election

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If Harris/Walz win the election, it's hard to predict the reaction. Sure, Trump and his sycophants will deny the results, but will there actually be rioting, either locally in Washington D.C. or nationally? No longer president, Trump cannot easily hold a rally at/near the White House for a violent mob to gather. Trump received 74 million votes in the 2020 election, but the Jan 6th crowd was a small percentage of that. Given how many of the insurrectionists (no, not "patriots") were identified, tried, and convicted, how many MAGAs are willing to subject themselves to possible fines and imprisonment? Trump called for protests during his court appearances (indictments and trials) and got very little response. Plus, law enforcement will likely be totally prepared for any civil unrest related to the 2024 election. Hopefully, Harris/Walz will win so we can test this theory!

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I've been thinking the same. At least in my area (Central VA), I don't foresee much besides some whining.

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Trump Wine may have failed, like Trump Vodka. But Trump Whine is never-ending! ;-)

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Aug 12·edited Aug 12

The Trump Winery is still in operation. It is owned by his son Eric Trump, and is located ≈5 miles off rte 20 south of Charlottesville. The wine is actually pretty good.

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My concern post-election is with places like Georgia, where the GOP has put people in place to run the election and who could decide not to certify a Harris win if they don't like the outcome. If that happens, maybe the riots will come from the left.

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I think the big risk is GA will remain undecided, with a count so close that the recounts won't be consistent.

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I think it will be a 269-269 outcome, or several states (GA is one) will be undecided and not contribute to the count on Jan 6 - which means a contingent election where Congress elects the President and VP.

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I super agree! Hoping Walz can connect with a good chunk of the MAGAs so they’re in a less crazy state after Trumps next loss.

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Thank you!! Thank you for analysis that cuts both ways.

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Funny how JB said the quiet part out loud this weekend. Forced to leave the race he didn’t want to! Threat to democracy is what you have witnessed. Unfortunately Ds stuck with unlikable VP Harris who they are trying to like, give them credit for trying, but in the end she’s still the awful candidate that failed in the primary. That’s why she doesn’t, isn’t allowed to speak w/o the ole teleprompter…..

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Dutch, have you taken your meds this morning?

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Agh, JB did say that this weekend.

Certainly that can be viewed (taking away the 14 million votes of the people) as a threat to democracy. Not the highest hill to climb to get there on that.

VP Harris is very unlikable, has been for over 3 1/2 years now, just recently it’s been decided everyone was wrong and she’s really not an awful politician when in fact she the next Obama.

Certainly no meds needed, just speaking the truth.

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I think she's grown a lot since 2020 and is a lot more likeable now. And, compared to the old guy she is running against, she is downright adorable. All he does is whine, complain and talk about crazy stuff like Hannibal Lecter, sharks and windmills.

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She is a lot more likeable when she sticks to a professionally written script - which she has been doing. A short campaign gives her the advantage.

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Geeze Dutch, are you the same person you were in 2019? Are your thoughts opinions, and beliefs completely unchanged in the last 5 years? For most of us the passage of time gives us more life experiences and a bit more wisdom to look at things from a different angle. Sometimes things don't change - for example, I thought Dementia Donnie was an insecure, narcissistic sociopath in 2019 and I still think that in 2024 (although in 2024 we get to add convicted criminal and convicted sex offender to the mix), and other things do, such as the fact that I didn't know you in 2019 and in 2024, I see you as the Trump troll you truly are. And if there's one thing that all politicians of every party, gender, color, and whatnot excel at, it's that their positions on issues "evolve".

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Trump CAN'T speak without a teleprompter, but either way it doesn't matter. What sounds like verbal diarrhea to the sane folks in America gets sucked up by the MAGA cult like the Kool-Aid Jim Jones gave everyone for their final moments on Earth.

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Thanks for breaking that down Chris. I said it to my dogs (they hear a lot of political commentary from me when my husband is at work 😂) before you said it. The young vote is important and now Dems have to encourage young voters to actually vote. My kids are 28 and 26 and we talk politics often but getting to actually go to vote is another story. I think to them it's just too much work and it needs to be a quicker process 🤷‍♀️

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That's why early voting has been great. Up here in MA we have it for about two weeks prior to the election (ending the Saturday before IFRC). Much easier to fit into your schedule when there's a bunch of different days and times available, instead of forcing everyone to vote on that one Tuesday. I know that giving people more voting options is an anathema to Republicans, but sometimes the 99% get a win.

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You have to admit Chris your drive through my back yard was a beautiful one. Glad to hear Harris is doing an awesome job with younger voters. Of this I'm not surprised

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Poor Journalism.

#1 released a surbey* (It is a survey!)

#2 You say beginning of July then 'six weeks later' implying ~ August 12 or today, but the poll release date is from August 3-5

#3 Poll is really talking a bounce from Harris announcement

#4 Poll does not include Walz announcement

#5 Harris has kept quiet

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She’s not

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She is. Very much so. Now that doesn't guarantee the outcome on Election Day but right now she's got the momentum while Convicted Felon Trump is whining and flailing about wildly.

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Dutch, have you taken your meds this morning?

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