The question is who is moving to these southern states? Is it people taking their progressive views to warmer climates and thus will moderate those areas, or is it those with conservative views that will be reinforcing the current ideological bent of their new location?
I know here in Texas we're seeing a huge influx from CA. They bring their Prius' and inability to get out of the fast lane on the highway. And as far as their political leanings, sort of a mixed bag. I live in a fairly blue enclave in Dallas, so I believe I've run into more dems. But any CA Republican I've run into pales in comparison to the Texas version of Repubs. CA Repubs don't seem bent on evil intentions as a core mission.
I was wondering the same thing. I live in metro Atlanta which has definitely gotten more purplish over the past decade or so. I am sure there are many reasons for this, but we have had a massive influx of people moving from bluer states so that must be a part of the explanation.
I live in Florida. DeSantis won in 2018 with 49.5% of the vote. He won in 2022 with 59% of the vote. Trump won Florida with 49.02% of the vote in 2016, 51.2% in 2020 and 56.1 % in 2024. Miami Dade County narrowly flipped to red in 2024 and Palm Beach remained slightly blue by 0.76%. These are both highly populated long term Democratic stronghold counties. So, at least in Florida, there is no evidence that the new arrivals (mostly from New York) are following their old voting patterns.
I believe there is some evidence that is voting patterns are shifting left in North Carolina but I know far less about that.
Great point. Red states will ideologically get redder. Blue states bluer.
Livability is going to be the key watchword in the USA in the next 4 years. Finding a politically aligned community for you to keep you sane on one side. The cost of everything. Food, homes and healthcare. The impact of the environment and the health of you and your children on the other.
It’s going to be fascinating to watch what happens.
A California Republican (not MAGA) chiming in here. For those of you living in AZ, TX, GA, TN, FL and the Carolinas - brace yourselves because the exodus out of CA is just beginning. Already Chevron has moved to Texas, along with Tesla. Here are a few reasons (these are my reasons, so you may not agree, but they are my reasons);
1) Effective 1/1/25, gasoline prices are going up fifty to ninety cents per gallon as a result of recently passed legislation. We already have the highest gas prices in the US. Somehow, Gov. Newsom sold this new tax as a way to stabilize gas prices, but many of us are skeptical.
2) Sales tax; local and state combined is as high as 10.75%
3) State income tax is as high as 12.3%
4) Our kids are going out of state for higher education for a variety of reasons; they can't get in to or do not want to go to a UC school (UCLA, UC Berkley, UC San Diego, UC Santa Barbara). Our son who graduated from HS in 2020 went to Colorado-Boulder along with 9 of his classmates. TCU in Ft. Worth accepted another 10 from his class. Our son (a member of the Young Republicans in CO), along with most of his classmates decided to stay in Colorado for work.
5) We just voluntarily evacuated from Coastal Los Angeles twice in the past month, due to the power pre-emptively being shut off by Edison due to the high winds and dangerous fire conditions. As a remote employee, how can you get any work done without power or cell service?
6) As our population ages, we don't need 3,000 square foot homes with 5 bedrooms and 3 baths. We take the profit we made on our homes and take it to where our kids and grandkids are going to be (and very likely, they will not be in California).
7) Traffic
8) LAX
9) I don't have the time to get in to the status of our large cities and the local politics.
It's been a great 35 years, and you cannot beat the weather (or the many food options). There are many challenges facing California. Many of our friends have already left town for a different lifestyle.
In the next 4 years red states are going to be terrible places to live. Florida is soon going to be a state without home insurance and may be underwater. Women’s healthcare physicians are moving to blue states to prevent being arrested for assisting abortions even those which are medically necessary. When RFK bans polio vaccines, the mass death in red states is going to be catastrophic. So while the census tells one story, the pattens of migration of millions of Americans from red states to blue states will become more pronounced.
Of course, this is all predicated on these population movements continuing.
For example, home insurance rates in Florida (as well as anywhere near the Gulf coast) is making Florida a less affordable and less than ideal place to live never mind the potential for hurricanes and constant rebuilding. I have retiree friends that are looking to bail on Florida (as well as other Gulf Coast cities) and move to areas in the South but away from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic.
Texas' population increase is likely to happen, but I would not rely on your analysis that it will turn even more Republican. The people moving there (a lot of them from California) are high tech programmers and similar that are hardly reliable Republicans so I would argue that Texas will become a huge swing state if not potentially Democratic.
Arizona and Nevada are problematic because of the water issues that are finally starting to become significant and are likely only going to get worse. The Colorado River water agreement is no longer keeping those states in water and it will take drastic changes to make water available. I think you will see the movement to those states slow particularly if the water situation continues to deteriorate. This is why the chip plants announced in Arizona are not progressing faster because they require tons of water that might not be readily available.
New census numbers should be out on Thursday. Interesting how Oregon is losing a seat - OR had added a seat in 2020 census by a whisker. But they couldn't hang on to it.
The first is the question of those migrating are making those places more blue, especially as older white Boomers die off. States with significantly older populations are also likely to see disproportionately larger numbers of deaths in the coming decade, and those older voters tend to be more conservative.
The second question pertains to gerrymandering. Will those states experiencing growth be able to successfully crack and pack districts to maintain a Congressional and state legislative majority? If that occurs, chances are that the more progressive residents will get angry. And, while you can gerrymander legislative districts, you can’t do that with state-wide offices. North Carolina is basically a 50/50 state, but holds a major edge on legislative seats. As the Governorship, AG, and potentially Senate offices become more consistently Democratic, as well as state Supreme Court seats, it will be harder for those legislatures to continue to rule from a minority position. It would only take a pretty temporary Dem takeover to pass laws to eliminate partisan gerrymandering, and the stranglehold in those states would be broken.
Mr Cillizza - I emailed you about this - since the reason the decennial census mandated re-apportionments have such major influence is the size of the house hasn't changed since 1912, when the US population was less than a third of what it is now.
Sorry to say, I don't see MAGA going anywhere post-Trump. Especially if Don Jr. takes up the mantle (and you can be sure Senior will position him to do just that).
The question is who is moving to these southern states? Is it people taking their progressive views to warmer climates and thus will moderate those areas, or is it those with conservative views that will be reinforcing the current ideological bent of their new location?
Excellent point Linda!
I know here in Texas we're seeing a huge influx from CA. They bring their Prius' and inability to get out of the fast lane on the highway. And as far as their political leanings, sort of a mixed bag. I live in a fairly blue enclave in Dallas, so I believe I've run into more dems. But any CA Republican I've run into pales in comparison to the Texas version of Repubs. CA Repubs don't seem bent on evil intentions as a core mission.
I was wondering the same thing. I live in metro Atlanta which has definitely gotten more purplish over the past decade or so. I am sure there are many reasons for this, but we have had a massive influx of people moving from bluer states so that must be a part of the explanation.
I live in Florida. DeSantis won in 2018 with 49.5% of the vote. He won in 2022 with 59% of the vote. Trump won Florida with 49.02% of the vote in 2016, 51.2% in 2020 and 56.1 % in 2024. Miami Dade County narrowly flipped to red in 2024 and Palm Beach remained slightly blue by 0.76%. These are both highly populated long term Democratic stronghold counties. So, at least in Florida, there is no evidence that the new arrivals (mostly from New York) are following their old voting patterns.
I believe there is some evidence that is voting patterns are shifting left in North Carolina but I know far less about that.
Great point. Red states will ideologically get redder. Blue states bluer.
Livability is going to be the key watchword in the USA in the next 4 years. Finding a politically aligned community for you to keep you sane on one side. The cost of everything. Food, homes and healthcare. The impact of the environment and the health of you and your children on the other.
It’s going to be fascinating to watch what happens.
I was going to say the same thing. Are these moves making Texas more purple? Florida was a purple state… it could turn back that way.
A California Republican (not MAGA) chiming in here. For those of you living in AZ, TX, GA, TN, FL and the Carolinas - brace yourselves because the exodus out of CA is just beginning. Already Chevron has moved to Texas, along with Tesla. Here are a few reasons (these are my reasons, so you may not agree, but they are my reasons);
1) Effective 1/1/25, gasoline prices are going up fifty to ninety cents per gallon as a result of recently passed legislation. We already have the highest gas prices in the US. Somehow, Gov. Newsom sold this new tax as a way to stabilize gas prices, but many of us are skeptical.
2) Sales tax; local and state combined is as high as 10.75%
3) State income tax is as high as 12.3%
4) Our kids are going out of state for higher education for a variety of reasons; they can't get in to or do not want to go to a UC school (UCLA, UC Berkley, UC San Diego, UC Santa Barbara). Our son who graduated from HS in 2020 went to Colorado-Boulder along with 9 of his classmates. TCU in Ft. Worth accepted another 10 from his class. Our son (a member of the Young Republicans in CO), along with most of his classmates decided to stay in Colorado for work.
5) We just voluntarily evacuated from Coastal Los Angeles twice in the past month, due to the power pre-emptively being shut off by Edison due to the high winds and dangerous fire conditions. As a remote employee, how can you get any work done without power or cell service?
6) As our population ages, we don't need 3,000 square foot homes with 5 bedrooms and 3 baths. We take the profit we made on our homes and take it to where our kids and grandkids are going to be (and very likely, they will not be in California).
7) Traffic
8) LAX
9) I don't have the time to get in to the status of our large cities and the local politics.
It's been a great 35 years, and you cannot beat the weather (or the many food options). There are many challenges facing California. Many of our friends have already left town for a different lifestyle.
In the next 4 years red states are going to be terrible places to live. Florida is soon going to be a state without home insurance and may be underwater. Women’s healthcare physicians are moving to blue states to prevent being arrested for assisting abortions even those which are medically necessary. When RFK bans polio vaccines, the mass death in red states is going to be catastrophic. So while the census tells one story, the pattens of migration of millions of Americans from red states to blue states will become more pronounced.
Of course, this is all predicated on these population movements continuing.
For example, home insurance rates in Florida (as well as anywhere near the Gulf coast) is making Florida a less affordable and less than ideal place to live never mind the potential for hurricanes and constant rebuilding. I have retiree friends that are looking to bail on Florida (as well as other Gulf Coast cities) and move to areas in the South but away from the Gulf of Mexico and the Atlantic.
Texas' population increase is likely to happen, but I would not rely on your analysis that it will turn even more Republican. The people moving there (a lot of them from California) are high tech programmers and similar that are hardly reliable Republicans so I would argue that Texas will become a huge swing state if not potentially Democratic.
Arizona and Nevada are problematic because of the water issues that are finally starting to become significant and are likely only going to get worse. The Colorado River water agreement is no longer keeping those states in water and it will take drastic changes to make water available. I think you will see the movement to those states slow particularly if the water situation continues to deteriorate. This is why the chip plants announced in Arizona are not progressing faster because they require tons of water that might not be readily available.
How will the population shift when parts of Florida, Alabama, georgia, Mississippi, and Texas sink into the gulf of mexico?
🤣🤣🤣
I looked at the map wrong, sorry.
Carry on.
As climate change continues to wreak havoc on Texas and Florida don’t be surprised if these trends reverse in the coming decade.
New census numbers should be out on Thursday. Interesting how Oregon is losing a seat - OR had added a seat in 2020 census by a whisker. But they couldn't hang on to it.
There really are two questions here.
The first is the question of those migrating are making those places more blue, especially as older white Boomers die off. States with significantly older populations are also likely to see disproportionately larger numbers of deaths in the coming decade, and those older voters tend to be more conservative.
The second question pertains to gerrymandering. Will those states experiencing growth be able to successfully crack and pack districts to maintain a Congressional and state legislative majority? If that occurs, chances are that the more progressive residents will get angry. And, while you can gerrymander legislative districts, you can’t do that with state-wide offices. North Carolina is basically a 50/50 state, but holds a major edge on legislative seats. As the Governorship, AG, and potentially Senate offices become more consistently Democratic, as well as state Supreme Court seats, it will be harder for those legislatures to continue to rule from a minority position. It would only take a pretty temporary Dem takeover to pass laws to eliminate partisan gerrymandering, and the stranglehold in those states would be broken.
Mr Cillizza - I emailed you about this - since the reason the decennial census mandated re-apportionments have such major influence is the size of the house hasn't changed since 1912, when the US population was less than a third of what it is now.
Trump is NOT a Republican. Let's see what happens when the MAGA fever breaks and politics returns to normal.
Sorry to say, I don't see MAGA going anywhere post-Trump. Especially if Don Jr. takes up the mantle (and you can be sure Senior will position him to do just that).