The Morning: Why the electoral map is moving toward Republicans 🚙

Every (late) December, two things happen:

1. Christmas

2. The Census Bureau releases its population estimates for the past year

And, yes, I get very excited for both.

Next week I will roll out my Christmas list for the political junkie in your life — so stay tuned for that.

But, today, I want to talk about the Census!

Here’s why it matters: Where people are moving over the decade will reshuffle the relative political power of states and regions. And that, in turn, has a direct impact on the two parties and their chances of winning the White House and the House.

While I eagerly await this year’s Census population estimates release, I pored over last year’s — and thought I would share my thoughts with you. The big one is this: Population growth (and loss) is working in Republicans’ favor right now

Here’s the map from the liberal Brennan Center estimating seat losses and gains based on current population trends:

The big gainers: Texas (+4 seats) and Florida (+3).

The big losers: California (-4 seats) and New York (-3).

The broader trend: The South continues to boom population-wise — it’s set to gain 11 congressional seats (and electoral college votes) in 2030 — while the Northeast and the Upper Midwest continue to lose population. The decline in California’s population is new — and troubling — for Democrats.

Here’s the Brennan Center take:

While southern and mountain states have continued to grow at a steady clip since the Covid-19 pandemic, the rest of the country, including one-time boom states like California, has seen mostly flat growth or even population losses.

If these trends continue for the balance of the decade, California would lose 4 of its 52 congressional districts in reapportionment — only the second time the Golden State has ever lost representation. New York, meanwhile, would lose three seats, Illinois two, and Pennsylvania one, leaving all three states with congressional delegations half the size they were in 1940.

By contrast, the South has emerged as this decade’s growth engine, adding almost 3.9 million people and accounting for nearly all U.S. population gains since 2020.

Four booming southern states stand out in particular: Texas, Florida, Georgia, and North Carolina. These rapidly growing states by themselves account for more than 90 percent of American population gains since the 2020 census, with Texas and Florida alone accounting for 70 percent of growth.

If these population changes hold — and, obviously, we are less than halfway through the decade so who knows — it would mean that states Donald Trump won in 2024 would net 12 electoral votes (only Michigan and Pennsylvania would lose a seat) after the next reapportionment/redistricting while states Kamala Harris won would lose 12. Which is a BIG shift!

Yes, this is a little nerdy. But this stuff really matters. So, be like me: Keep refreshing the Census website over the next week until the new population estimates pop up. It’s like a second Christmas!

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