This should — emphasis on should — be the last quiet(ish) week of the 2024 race.
The two party conventions are over. Labor Day is a week away. Everyone is getting ready for the final sprint.
What I am watching this morning — and this week — is whether Vice President Kamala Harris gets a major (or a minor) convention bounce following the Democratic party’s big celebration last week in Chicago.
Convention bounces have, historically, been a thing — although they have been, on average, getting smaller in recent elections.
This chart via the American Presidency Project — an invaluable site — is terrific on that:
In the last three presidential elections, the average “bounce” was 1.3 points for Democrats and 1 point for Republicans.
Not exactly earth-shaking stuff!
Why are bounces smaller? The country is deeply polarized so there are very few movable voters. And because of the wall-to-wall media coverage, people know a whole lot about the candidates well before the convention starts.
The one caveat I would note: Harris entered the convention — due to the circumstances of her getting the nomination — far less known than a typical presidential nominee. Which, in theory, allows more space for her polling to bounce upwards.
I broke down the possibility of a Harris bounce — and what it would mean to the race — in today’s edition of The Morning.
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