CNN only have 700,000 viewers in prime time. Less than a moderately successful chess streamer on YouTube. FoxNews a few million die hard Trump supporters that won’t listen. Both the goals of these organizations is to ask gotcha questions which drive their advertising rather than inform the US public. Harris has been doing a spectacular job gaining 1% a week without media interviews. The idea that the media are objectively working for democracy is just not true. Harris job is to win and save democracy. Her momentum is already so great that a bounce will be hard to detect. Trump too is going in reverse because he talks to the media. Despite them spinning his gaffs. The path to the White House may be to realize that the media are rooting for Republicans. Their billionaire owners want less regulations and less tax. They aren’t going to get that under Harris.
I believe this is absolutely spot on. One of the MSM's problems these days is that too many of their political reporters don't have much depth. They don't understand that post-convention bounce may not be the same thing it was in the 1950s and 1960s. Heck, the conventions aren't the same thing they were back then. I have been suspecting that, slowly, most of the "undecideds" and some of the GOPers still looking will break for Harris. The percentages won't grow in droves but they will keep on edging upward until, come election day, the Harris majority is very real and really quite significant by 2024 standards.
Meanwhile, CNN continues to flounder (and I say this as a WBD shareholder) and seems to not know where they are going. They have become too close to irrelevant for the good of the electorate.
Boy are you right. I think CBS' owner said at one point, "Trump isn't good for the country. But, damn, he's good for CBS" or something like that. Maybe it was CNN's owner. Can't remember, but it is true either way. You are spot on that the media's role is not to root for a specific political system but to make money for their owners. Completely understandable and unfortunate for our country. Thank you for your intelligent comment.
All the major "news" organizations are owned, either by billionaire families, monied organizations, or venture capital. The concept of getting big money out of our electoral systems starts with getting big money out of our "news". I'm a capitalist but profit for profits sake is unsustainable and anti-democratic. As Gordon Gecko said "Greed is good " but unrestrained greed destroys absolutely.
“Why are bounces smaller?” True that more is known, but I think party conventions are less influential. No one is breaking new ground and there are no surprises. It is all free advertising and we live in a world where people skip ads. Political junkies are the only ones who watch both. Decided voters may watch the one that matches their bubble. True undecided voters don’t pay attention until late October. The bounce is smaller because the ball that represents the audience is smaller.
Good morning Chris (please excuse this if it's a duplicate)
Related to the DNC Convention, what are your thoughts on CNN knowingly including a Trump stooge on their panel of "undecided voters" - a tempest in a teapot? A massive breach of journalistic ethics?
Scott Dworkin had a good article on that where he interviewed Ben Meiselas of MeidasTouch. It’s WAY more than journalistic malpractice, and they should be chastised for it.
According to the Trump supporter themselves, the *repeatedly* told CNN they were NOT undecided but were put on the panel anyway.
I’m with you, Peter: I’d much rather hear what Chris has to say on the faults of his own trade rather than this endless horse race reporting of poll bounces and other totally insignificant crap!
I really would value Chris’s take on this. It seems like a pretty egregious foul - but who knows? Maybe this kind of thing is done all the time in the name of “balance”….? Or maybe CNN would use the Fox line that they are “Infotainment” not “news”….
I always used to roll my eyes whenever people bitched about the Mainstrem Media - I figured that they just didn’t like what they were hearing. But between this and the NYT/WaPo sitting on the Trump stolen email story for three weeks, I have completely lost faith in the Mainstream Media. When I want news, I go to the UK Guardian….
Harris needs a permanent bounce as she is only leading by 2–3% nationally. Trump has underpolled by 2–4% in both 2016 & 2020. For example, in 2020, Biden's was leading by 7–8% in most election eve polls (538–7.9%); his final margin was 4.5%.
Nate Silver estimates that, due to the Republican Electoral College bias, the Democrats's need to win by 3-5% nationally to have an 80-90% win probability. If Trump's polling underperformance is consistent, Harris is basically tied right now or slightly behind, and if the election were held today, she would lose.
We’ve got a big presser coming up, don’t forget, scheduled a couple weeks ago, VP Harris is actually going to talk off the teleprompter “end of August” if her people will let her! What’s the chances she has all the questions and reporters all set up, kinda like JB (prob not bold names written on cue cards) but I’m sure the same kind of shenanigans will likely take place.
Bounce from convention should be seen….. soon the race gets serious. Let’s see where the candidates spend their time, does President Trump go to blue states or does he hammer the swing states? Does VP Harris venture into TX, NC, or FL??
CNN only have 700,000 viewers in prime time. Less than a moderately successful chess streamer on YouTube. FoxNews a few million die hard Trump supporters that won’t listen. Both the goals of these organizations is to ask gotcha questions which drive their advertising rather than inform the US public. Harris has been doing a spectacular job gaining 1% a week without media interviews. The idea that the media are objectively working for democracy is just not true. Harris job is to win and save democracy. Her momentum is already so great that a bounce will be hard to detect. Trump too is going in reverse because he talks to the media. Despite them spinning his gaffs. The path to the White House may be to realize that the media are rooting for Republicans. Their billionaire owners want less regulations and less tax. They aren’t going to get that under Harris.
Great handle, BTW. Took me a minute, then nearly cost me a spit-take.
Thanks! lol
I believe this is absolutely spot on. One of the MSM's problems these days is that too many of their political reporters don't have much depth. They don't understand that post-convention bounce may not be the same thing it was in the 1950s and 1960s. Heck, the conventions aren't the same thing they were back then. I have been suspecting that, slowly, most of the "undecideds" and some of the GOPers still looking will break for Harris. The percentages won't grow in droves but they will keep on edging upward until, come election day, the Harris majority is very real and really quite significant by 2024 standards.
Meanwhile, CNN continues to flounder (and I say this as a WBD shareholder) and seems to not know where they are going. They have become too close to irrelevant for the good of the electorate.
Boy are you right. I think CBS' owner said at one point, "Trump isn't good for the country. But, damn, he's good for CBS" or something like that. Maybe it was CNN's owner. Can't remember, but it is true either way. You are spot on that the media's role is not to root for a specific political system but to make money for their owners. Completely understandable and unfortunate for our country. Thank you for your intelligent comment.
Yeah, that comment was by Les Moonves (then CEO of CBS) in 2016. He was right
All the major "news" organizations are owned, either by billionaire families, monied organizations, or venture capital. The concept of getting big money out of our electoral systems starts with getting big money out of our "news". I'm a capitalist but profit for profits sake is unsustainable and anti-democratic. As Gordon Gecko said "Greed is good " but unrestrained greed destroys absolutely.
SNL did a great skit on the ownership of news outlets that aired one time with a Schoolhouse Rock theme. Decently hard to find, but I saw it on reddit. You can google mediaopoly. https://www.reddit.com/r/videos/comments/zg26br/conspiracy_rock_an_snl_skit_that_aired_once_in/?onetap_auto=true&one_tap=true
“Why are bounces smaller?” True that more is known, but I think party conventions are less influential. No one is breaking new ground and there are no surprises. It is all free advertising and we live in a world where people skip ads. Political junkies are the only ones who watch both. Decided voters may watch the one that matches their bubble. True undecided voters don’t pay attention until late October. The bounce is smaller because the ball that represents the audience is smaller.
Good morning Chris (please excuse this if it's a duplicate)
Related to the DNC Convention, what are your thoughts on CNN knowingly including a Trump stooge on their panel of "undecided voters" - a tempest in a teapot? A massive breach of journalistic ethics?
Scott Dworkin had a good article on that where he interviewed Ben Meiselas of MeidasTouch. It’s WAY more than journalistic malpractice, and they should be chastised for it.
According to the Trump supporter themselves, the *repeatedly* told CNN they were NOT undecided but were put on the panel anyway.
I’m with you, Peter: I’d much rather hear what Chris has to say on the faults of his own trade rather than this endless horse race reporting of poll bounces and other totally insignificant crap!
I really would value Chris’s take on this. It seems like a pretty egregious foul - but who knows? Maybe this kind of thing is done all the time in the name of “balance”….? Or maybe CNN would use the Fox line that they are “Infotainment” not “news”….
I always used to roll my eyes whenever people bitched about the Mainstrem Media - I figured that they just didn’t like what they were hearing. But between this and the NYT/WaPo sitting on the Trump stolen email story for three weeks, I have completely lost faith in the Mainstream Media. When I want news, I go to the UK Guardian….
First it was "when will the honeymoon end?", now it's "how big is the bounce?". What's next?
Harris needs a permanent bounce as she is only leading by 2–3% nationally. Trump has underpolled by 2–4% in both 2016 & 2020. For example, in 2020, Biden's was leading by 7–8% in most election eve polls (538–7.9%); his final margin was 4.5%.
Nate Silver estimates that, due to the Republican Electoral College bias, the Democrats's need to win by 3-5% nationally to have an 80-90% win probability. If Trump's polling underperformance is consistent, Harris is basically tied right now or slightly behind, and if the election were held today, she would lose.
BREAKING (but completely unsurprising) NEWS:
Gutless Geezer Dawdles on Debate - film at 11.
We’ve got a big presser coming up, don’t forget, scheduled a couple weeks ago, VP Harris is actually going to talk off the teleprompter “end of August” if her people will let her! What’s the chances she has all the questions and reporters all set up, kinda like JB (prob not bold names written on cue cards) but I’m sure the same kind of shenanigans will likely take place.
Bounce from convention should be seen….. soon the race gets serious. Let’s see where the candidates spend their time, does President Trump go to blue states or does he hammer the swing states? Does VP Harris venture into TX, NC, or FL??
Lots to watch come Sept-Oct!!