Tim Scott is going to run for president. But, why?

Running not to win.

(Tim Scott/ Associated Press)

In less than 3 weeks, South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is going to announce a 2024 presidential bid.

That much is certain.

What’s slightly less clear is why.

After all, Scott will enter the race as a massive underdog. A new CBS News poll showed him getting 1% of the vote — 57 points behind Donald Trump, who was in first and 21 points behind second place finisher Ron DeSantis.

That’s consistent with where Scott has been throughout the run-up to the race; he is averaging 2% of the vote in Real Clear Politics polling data.

Which is pretty, pretty low.

Now there are, of course, candidates in history — Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton jump to mind — who started off with meager support and went on to win not just a party nomination but the presidency.

So, it happens!

But, the circumstances in this race suggest such a scenario is decidedly unlikely. Trump is getting stronger and stronger as a candidate. The party appears to be settling in around the idea of him as their nominee. And, to the extent there is any resistance to that idea, it’s coalesced around DeSantis.

Which, again, brings me to this question: Why is Scott, widely regarded as one of the party’s brightest rising stars, putting his political capital on the line to run in 2024?

Let me first say that I don’t think Scott is running knowing he can’t win. There’s no way you willingly devote so much of your time and energy to a project that you are certain is doomed to fail.

He, undoubtedly, sees a path to the nomination.¹ And thinks there is some chance that it will actually come to pass.

That said, Scott is neither dumb nor impetuous. He has to know that this 2024 bid is a longshot — and that there are reasons beyond winning the presidency to make it anyway.

I can see two:

1. The vice presidency. The race to be Trump’s vice president is wide open. Why not audition right in front of the former president throughout the primary process?

   One thing to watch that could be telling on this front is if Scott, as a candidate, actually attacks Trump or if he sticks to more general and generic critiques.

   Scott has been resistant to direct attacks on other candidates during his rapid rise through the House and the Senate. Which hasn’t hurt him because he’s been the overwhelming favorite in each of the races he’s run.

   He’s not the overwhelming favorite in this race. Which means that if he is truly committed to winning, he would need to go directly at Trump and, to a lesser

   extent, DeSantis.

   If Scott pulls punches or never even throws a punch at Trump, you know what he’s doing. He’s trying out to be the vice president.

   Which, by the way, is a pretty smart move. Trump is Constitutionally barred from seeking a 2nd term in 2028. Meaning that the 2028 race will be open no matter what happens in 2024. And Trump’s VP would presumably start at the front of that 2028 pack.

2. The 2028 race. Two things are already obvious about the next next presidential race: a) It will be an open nomination, without a sitting president and b) it will be much more crowded with ambitious young stars than the 2024 contest.

   Consider who has said “no” to this race already: Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

   I would be STUNNED if all four men didn’t run in 2028 — and aren’t already quietly making plans for just such bids.

   Scott is betting that running in 2024 puts him at or near the top of the list to start the 2028 race.

   Which seems plausible! After all, a presidential primary process — time on the ground in Iowa, New Hampshire and the like, nationally-televised debate etc. — is perfectly suited to raising a candidate like Scott’s name identification among party activists and donors.

   Plus he has an incredibly impressive story to tell. Raised by a single mom, Scott has risen to become the first African American Republican in the Senate since 1979. He is charismatic and naturally gifted as a communicator as well — meaning that he should shine in the primary process, even if he makes few inroads against Trump.

The reality is that Scott is running a different race than Trump or DeSantis. They are running with the only objective being winning. He has multiple goals. Winning, of course, would be his best case scenario. But, for Scott, going through the process — and getting far better known and liked — is almost as important.

There are obviously pitfalls attached to this sort of candidacy. Most notably, not every candidate who runs and loses a presidential nomination emerges elevated from the experience. Plenty of people bomb out when thrust onto the big stage. The bright lights turn on and they wilt.

For those candidates, there is no second run for president. (Scott Walker jumps to mind here.) Their moment passes. A rising star turns into a has-been. Quickly.

That is a risk for Scott. But, given the potential upside, one he is willing to take.

It’s probably right to think of this as as a five-year plan for Scott. The 2024 race is a sort of a dry run to see how he wears with Republican voters and donors. If he wins, amazing! If he doesn’t, he and his team have to hope that his trend line is still pointing upward — and that it puts him in the pole position (or somewhere close to it) for 2028.

Put simply: Scott is running this time so that he can run again — that time with a more realistic chance of winning.

1. The presumed path is that Trump and DeSantis bludgeon one another, opening up a third lane for a candidate with a more positive and uplifting message that can rally Republicans. Enter Scott.