Tim Scott is the perfect Republican presidential candidate. Except...

Why he (probably) can't win.

Take 3 minutes and watch this video:

It’s really, really good.

In it, Tim Scott, a Republican Senator from South Carolina, announces that he is forming a presidential exploratory committee, which will allow him to raise money for a potential national bid.

And, aside from a slick video, Scott has a lot seemingly going for him in that race.

Start here: Scott is the first Black senator elected from the Deep South since Reconstruction and the first Black Republican to serve in the Senate since 1979.

His personal story— which he touches on in the video — is hugely compelling. He was raised by a single mother in poverty. He found a mentor — a Chick-Fil-A owner — who helped pull him from the edge of failing out of high school and, according to Scott, saved his life.

He has been an eloquent voice on race throughout his time in office — and even been critical of Donald Trump after the then-president’s reaction to the white nationalist violence in Charlottesville, Virginia in 2017. (Scott said Trump had compromised his “moral authority.”)

Scott has also been a leading advocate within the GOP for police reform in the wake of the slew of incidents in which officers shot unarmed black men over the past few years.¹

Scott has also shown a unique ability to navigate between the Trump wing of the party and its more establishment side. He has, somewhat amazingly, never been on the wrong end of a screed from the former president but has also managed to stay in the good graces of the likes of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

And, Scott has remained one of the most conservative members of the Senate without alienating the moderate middle in South Carolina. In 2022, he won a 2nd full term with 63% — six years removed from winning with 61%.

Scott, perhaps with an eye on a presidential race, raised (and saved) a massive mount of money in that contest; he has almost $22 million on hand in his Senate account — all of which could be transferred to a presidential bid.

For a party who has seen its electoral coalition grow ever whiter and ever older, Scott would seem the perfect remedy.

And yet…

On the same day Scott made his exploratory announcement, a harsh bit of reality hit him — in the form of a poll from his home state.

The survey, conducted by Winthrop University, showed Trump far in the lead in advance of the state’s critical 2024 primary. The former president took 41% to 20% for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and 18% for former South Carolina Gov. Nikki Haley. Scott was well beyond the pack, taking 7% — just ahead of former vice president Mike Pence at 5%.

Which is a bit of a reality check for Scott. And a reminder that this is still Trump’s party — no matter how attractive a candidate the South Carolina Senator might be.

Scott himself has struggled to grapple with Trump’s continued stranglehold on the party.

Back in the fall of 2021, Scott responded “of course” when asked whether he would support Trump if the former president ran again in 2024.

Since then, Scott has tried to walk back that comment — although you can be sure that Trump won’t let him forget he said it if he ultimately does decide to run for president.

The reality of the Republican race — as it looks today at least — is this: The nomination goes right through Trump. He is the prime mover in the race. He is the alpha. He sucks up all the oxygen.

Given that, it’s hard to see where Scott fits in. In his announcement video, he never mentions Trump — choosing instead to focus on telling his own story and going after Democrats.

But that won’t get him very far. Trump is dominating the 2024 race and the only way to change that dynamic is to find a way to start taking support from him. Which is going to be hard given that of the major candidates in the race or expected to run, none have been willing to go directly at Trump and challenge his supremacy.²

Scott’s MO is one of conciliation and common ground, not slash and burn. But, given Trump’s standing in the race vis a vis his own, Scott won’t simply be able to charm his way to the nomination. He needs to find ways to scrape votes off of Trump — lots of votes — and quickly.

I don’t see Scott having the willingness to run the sort of race he would need to run in order to dethrone Trump. Which almost certainly means he will be an also-ran — despite his considerable gifts and political resources.

There are two scenarios where Scott could wind up mattering more than I think he will today:

1. Trump and DeSantis savage each other to the point where both men are seen as unelectable by the Republican electorate. In such a scenario, Scott, playing nice and just telling his compelling personal story, could shoot the gap into relevance in the race.³

2. DeSantis decides not to run.⁴ Republican voters are uncomfortable with a coronation for Trump and begin looking for a credible alternative. Scott would be well positioned to be that alternative although, if that came to pass, he would have to find ways to throw punches (lots of them) at Trump.

There’s also the possibility that Scott’s play is for the vice presidency. That he views Trump as the close-to-certain nominee and is getting into the presidential waters as a way to position himself to be Trump’s #2.

Which would be intriguing — especially when you consider that, even if he wins in 2024, Trump will only be able to serve a single term. That fact makes his vice presidential pick all the more important because that person would likely start the 2028 race as the frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

All of that, for now, is down the road. Scott’s current reality is that he faces a long uphill climb into contention — and the only way to make it happen is to go after Trump.

Is he willing to do that? There’s very little in his past to suggest he is.

1. Nothing, to date, has come of those efforts.

2. I don’t count Chris Christie or Asa Hutchinson, both of whom have been willing to criticize Trump, as major candidates with a real shot at winning the nomination.

3. That, by the way, also looks like the best bet for Haley as well.

4. Unlikely but not impossible.