Why Ron DeSantis shouldn't run in 2024

Discretion is the better part of valor.

(Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis)

Politics is all about timing.

Three months ago, that timing appeared to be working very much in Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ favor.

Polls showed him running even — or close to it — with former President Donald Trump. Donors and activists were falling all over themselves to get behind his presumed presidential bid. He was the “it” candidate — before he even formally became a candidate.

Today, things look very different. While DeSantis is still, not an official candidate, the early readouts of his performance on the campaign trail are worrisome. (He’s too wooden, he’s bad at small talk etc.) Trump, thanks at least in part to his recent indictment, is strengthening in polls against DeSantis (and everyone else.) DeSantis looks reduced.

Which brings us to this paragraph from a recent NBC News piece headlined “Ron DeSantis' donors and allies question if he's ready for 2024” (bolding is mine):

Some feel DeSantis needs to accelerate his timeline to run for the GOP presidential nomination and begin directly confronting Trump if he's to have any chance of thwarting the former president’s momentum. Others believe DeSantis should sidestep Trump altogether and wait until 2028 to run.

On its face, that last sentence might seem crazy. DeSantis is, after all, running clearly in 2nd place behind Trump in all national polls. He is both well known and very well liked among the Republican base. He is coming off a 2022 reelection in which he romped to victory — a seemingly perfect launching pad to a national bid.

And yet…I think there is a credible case to make that DeSantis should wait until 2028 to run. Let me make it for you.¹

Start here: DeSantis can afford to wait. DeSantis has two things going for him that lots of other candidates in the 2024 race don’t have: He just got reelected to a four year term and he’s only 44 years old.

Consider, just for one, Mike Pence. The former vice president will have been out of office for four years when 2024 rolls around — an eternity in politics. If he doesn’t run in 2024, it would be EIGHT years out of office for Pence in 2028. People might not even remember who he is by that point. He has to run now.

DeSantis, by dint of his job as chief executive of one of the largest states in the country, will have a significant platform by which to stay in the national news for the next four years.

And, as DeSantis has demonstrated over the past four years, he is a master of using his state as an incubator for so-called “anti woke” policies. And getting lots (and lots) of attention for those policies.

The timing for 2028 actually works better for DeSantis than 2024 does. He can spending the next four years building up his reputation as a warrior against wokeness. He can use his last two years in office as a sort of valedictory tour — campaigning for other Republicans in places like Iowa and New Hampshire and, in the process, building chits for his 2028 bid.

And, DeSantis can effectively seamlessly transition from from being governor to running for president in January 2027. He won’t have to worry about complaints that he’s not doing the job he was elected to do or that he is spending too much time on his national ambitions. His only job will be running for president — and he can devote all of his time to it.

Then there’s the age thing to consider. Lots of politicians run for president because, well, the actuarial tables are not in their favor. Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, who just announced he is going to run in 2024, is 72 — likely too old to wait four more years to make a bid. Trump, at 76, also can’t afford to wait four more years to run again.

DeSantis can wait. Easily. He won’t even be 50 by November 2028. He will still be able to make the generational argument against whoever is in the field. He will still be one of the young and fresh faces in the party — even in four years time. Nothing — not one thing — on that front will change for DeSantis by waiting.

Then there’s the Trump factor.

Trump is in the 2024 race — and there appears to be nothing (including his pending indictment) that will lead him to reconsider.

And it’s not just that Trump is running either! He is getting stronger as the race continues on.

The last four national polls conducted in the race have Trump up 33, 31, 13 and 30 points over DeSantis. The trend line is clear: Trump is gaining — at DeSantis’ expense.

And all of this was before Trump was indicted by a Manhattan grand jury over alleged hush money payments made to porn actress Stormy Daniels in the days leading up to the 2016 campaign.

If early indications are indicative of how the indictment will play with the Republican electorate, it seems very likely to strengthen Trump within the party’s base, who seem ready to believe the former president’s claims that the entire investigation is simply the latest witch hunt targeting him. ²

Trump also has a track record here. Once he took the lead in the 2016 race, he never gave it up — thanks, in no small part — to his ability to dominate the daily conversation about the race. He’s lost none of that flair for the scenery chewing and drama. In fact, if anything, Trump has become more of a showman, more of a provocateur since the 2020 election.

Which means that he is going to, again, suck up all the oxygen in the race — making it hard for other candidates running behind him, including DeSantis, to break through in a meaningful way.

And it’s not just that Trump is ahead in polling that should give DeSantis pause about running in 2024. It’s the kind of campaign Trump is already running against the Florida governor.

Although DeSantis isn’t even in the race yet, Trump has:

• Come up with a variety of nicknames for him — from “Ron DeSanctimonious” to “Meatball Ron.”

• Suggested that DeSantis was a groomer of young women during his year as a teacher

• Called DeSantis a RINO (Republican in Name Only) and sought to tie to him to the likes of George W. Bush and Paul Ryan

• Made clear that he will run hard on DeSantis’ past support for making cuts and changes to Medicare and Social Security

There’s more but you get the gist. Trump is going all out in savaging DeSantis. And, as Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, Marco Rubio, Jeff Flake and lots of other Republican politicians over the past eight years can attest, Trump doesn’t stop until you are politically dead. He is like a dog on a bone.

Plus there’s this: All of those names I mentioned above tried, at one point or another, to go tit for tat with Trump on the personal attack front. To a person, it boomeranged badly on them.

Republican voters seem to hold Trump to a different standard than they do other candidates. Getting in the mud with Trump gets you very dirty — and Trump loves it. It’s his native environment.

Does DeSantis want that for his first foray into national politics? The only way around Trump is through Trump. Which means, by necessity, a massively bloody primary fight that, if past is prologue, may not even stop him.

Even if DeSantis did someone manage to win a knife fight for the nomination with Trump, he would emerge with hundreds of wounds of varying sizes and severity. That would not only handicap DeSantis for the general election but those wounds could linger through 2028 and beyond.

Now, consider the alternative.

No matter what happens in 2024, Trump is done in 2028. Either he’s term limited out of office after two terms or he’s a two-time loser for president and, presumably, persona non grata in the Republican party. ³

Which means the 2028 nomination is the first nomination fight since 2016 that is entirely free of Trump — and, therefore, wide open.

Yes, there will be more candidates running in 2028 — including the likes of Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton and Missouri Sen. Josh Hawley who took passes on 2024 — but DeSantis, given his remarkable ability to attract attention in Florida coupled with his existing national name ID, would seem likely to be at the front of that line.

Taken all together, the 2028 race looks not only more appealing but more winnable for DeSantis. His window of opportunity has just opened and isn’t likely to close if he opts out of a trying to topple Trump in 2024.

1. I do NOT think DeSantis ultimately passes on the 2024 race. He seems too far down the road to running to do so.

2. It’s a very different story for how the indictment plays with a general election electorate. In a new CNN poll released Monday, 60% of independents support the indictment.

3. There is a third scenario whereby Trump loses again but somehow maintains his hold on the Republican party base. And decides that at age 80 he’s not too old to run for president AGAIN. But this seems like a long-shot — even by Trumpian standards.