CHRIS CRUCIAL: How Democrats became what they hated most

PLUS: The Freedom Caucus is a punchline

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1. The Trumpian Democrats

If you gave truth serum to every elected Republican in Washington during the 2016 (or 2020) campaigns and asked whether they really supported Donald Trump and thought he was the right future for the GOP, you might get 10% who would say he was.

This reality came out in drips and drabs throughout those campaign and Trump’s presidency. In November 2020, journalist Carl Bernstein went public with this reality — tweeting out the names of 21 Republican Senators he said were privately contemptuous of Trump.

But, almost no one within the Republican party establishment dared go public with their actual views on Trump. Some (Mitch McConnell among them) hoped the Trump phenomenon would just blow over or, um, work itself out somehow. Others were too afraid for their own political futures to say what they actually thought of Trump.

Whatever their reasons, the silence was deafening. And it led directly to where Republicans are today — less a political party than a cult of personality organized around the whims of one man

Democrats — from activists to elected officials — expressed their amazement and disdain for these Republicans. How could they put politics ahead of principle? How could they not speak out on what they knew to be the case — that Trump was no conservative and that he was dangerous to the party and the country? It was cowardice! It was shirking their civic responsibilities! It was the opposite of leadership!

Ahem.

Let’s play out that same scenario with Democrats today — as it relates to whether they believe President Joe Biden, after a disastrous debate performance 12 days ago, should remain as the party’s nominee this fall.

Administer the truth serum and I guarantee you that 85% of Democratic elected officials (and I may be underestimating that number) would tell you that Biden is hurting the party, going to lose to Trump and needs to step aside.

And yet, there are only NINE(!) Members of Congress who have publicly called for Biden to step aside. Here they are — per NBC News:

Nadler’s name is crossed off because less than 24 hours after expressing — on a conference call with his colleagues — his belief that Biden needed to step aside, he reversed course Tuesday. “Whether or not I have concerns is besides the point.,” Nadler said. “He is going to be our nominee and we all have to support him.” (One name to add to that list above: New Jersey Rep. Mikie Sherrill, who came out late Tuesday saying that Biden needed to step down.)

Why the disconnect? Because politicians — Republicans and Democrats — are fraidy cats. (That is a technical term.) They never want to do anything to jeopardize their own standing — with voters or in the party. They are always looking out for their selves and very rarely for the good of the country.

This quote, from an anonymous Democratic member of Congress on Tuesday, is deeply revealing about that reality: “Most of our caucus is still with [Biden] ... meaning he’ll stay in. Which sucks for our country.”

That truth has been exposed by how Democratic elected officials — at least to date — have responded to Biden’s dare/threat that if they want to get rid of them they had better go public — and make their play.

“But if any of these guys -- don't think I should run, run against me,” Biden said on Monday. “Go ahead, announce -- announce they're president. Challenge me at the convention.”

To date, no one — not a party leader in Congress, not a prominent governor, no one — has taken up Biden on that challenge. Or even said: Look, I love Joe Biden but he can’t win. And winning is critical because the alternative is another term of Trump.

What Democrats are doing is remarkably similar to how the Republican establishment dealt with the threat of Trump: Hide under a pile of coats and hope it just gets worked out.

How did that all work out for Republicans? Oh yeah, Trump staged a hostile takeover of the party, drove the establishment into hiding and remade the party in his own image.

To be clear: I am not saying that Joe Biden = Donald Trump. Only one of those two people told more than 30,000 lies while in the White House, sought to overturn a free and fair election and fomented a violent uprising at the U.S. Capitol. And his name is not “Joe Biden.”

But the coping mechanism by the two party establishments is remarkably similar. And, I think, Democrats may well face massive electoral consequences for their unwillingness to do the right but politically awkward thing.

There’s a new poll in Wisconsin that shows Biden down by 5. There’s more of that to come I suspect. I just don’t think Biden easily (or maybe ever) bounces back from the damage he did to himself in that debate.

What’s remarkable is that every Democrat I talk to KNOWS this. And yet, here we are.

If Democrats do lose the White House with Biden as their nominee this fall, you can’t say they didn’t deserve it. They saw the train coming down the track and just stood there, waiting for it to hit them.

2. The Freedom Caucus implodes (again)

The House Freedom Caucus, the group of Republicans who tout themselves as the most Trump-y wing of the party, are creating drama that would might even make the reality-star-turned-politician blush.

On Monday night, the Caucus — by a 16-13 margin — ousted Ohio Rep. Warren Davidson from its ranks. Why? Because Davidson has supported Freedom Caucus chair Bob Good’s primary challenger. (Good lost the primary narrowly.)

Following Davidson’s removal, Texas Rep. Troy Nehls resigned from the group — saying that his goal for the Freedom Caucus was to grow its numbers, not shrink them.

“With tonight's vote, it was clear that is not their objective,” Nehls said in a statement explaining his move. “I will continue to support their conservative agenda, I just won't be a member.”

The departures of Davidson and Nehls comes almost a year to the day from when the news broke that Georgia Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene had been kicked out of the group.

The reasons for Greene’s removal were left purposefully vague by members of the Freedom Caucus but her persistent feuding with fellow HFC member Lauren Boebert of Colorado appears to be the cause. (Greene reportedly referred to Boebert as a “little bitch” on the House floor.)

The Freedom Caucus has been buffeted by internal disagreements — about its leaders, about its focus and about its direction — for a while now.

As Politico wrote back in 2022:

The run-in between Greene and Boebert is a microcosm of a bigger identity crisis that’s starting to take hold within the Freedom Caucus. A group founded with right-leaning policy ambition that later became a Donald Trump defense team is starting to split in important ways, from how to respond to this week’s Kevin McCarthy tapes to — more fundamentally — whether to reorient itself back to its limited-government roots…

…Interviews with more than 40 Republicans — including 30 lawmakers, 16 of them in the Freedom Caucus — paint a picture of a group that shapeshifted as the GOP itself realigned during Trump’s presidency, becoming more populist and nationalist, but less bound by policy principles.

That may even give the Freedom Caucus too much credit. My sense of the group at this point is that it is filled with LOTS of people who love media attention. And all of whom believe they are a) the most loyal Trumpist and b) should be in charge.

Organizations like that rarely survive for very long.

3. The final three?

Conventional wisdom seems to have settled around the idea that Donald Trump has narrowed his potential VP pick to three men: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio.

But, Trump himself isn’t telling. Here’s the exchange he had with Fox News’ Sean Hannity on the subject Monday night:

Hannity: [W]e keep reading that there is a short list. And on the short list, we hear names like Senator Rubio, Senator Tim Scott, Senator J.D. Vance, Governor Burgum.

Is that -- are those reports accurate? Are there other people maybe people aren't paying attention to? And when do you think you will announce that?

Trump: Well, we started off with a lot of people. We have a lot of good people. As they call it, we have a great bench in the Republican Party.

The names that you mentioned, absolutely, they're under consideration. And I haven't made final decision, but I have some ideas as to where we're going, and a little bit we wanted to see what they're doing, to be honest, because it might make a difference. I don't know. I'm not sure that it would.

Trump is, as the past 8 years have shown, deeply unpredictable. And prides himself on that fact. So, maybe he surprises everyone by picking someone outside of this top 3.

At the same time, when he had this same choice to make in 2016, he went with the safest (and most predictable) choice in Mike Pence.

Here’s my quick handicapping (more on this in this space in the coming days) on the Trump veep pick:

• If Trump thinks post-debate Biden is deeply and permanently damaged in the eyes of voters, he picks Burgum. The North Dakota governor is the safest of the trio — a do-know-harm pick for a candidate who thinks he is going to win if nothing big changes.

• If Trump listens to his eldest son — and we know that he only really listens to his family (and sometimes not even them) — then he goes with Vance. Vance and Don Jr. are tight — and Junior sees Vance as the next generation of Trumpism.

• If Trump thinks that he really is in a toss-up race with Biden, he picks Rubio. Rubio would make history — first Latino on a national ticket for either party — and would likely help Trump with Hispanic voters in swing states like Arizona and Nevada (among others).

When will we find out who Trump picked? Trump himself clearly wants to make the announcement during next week’s Republican National Convention — as a way to build drama and ensure the biggest possible audience. I don’t know if he will get his way.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“Joe Biden is not competent to serve a second term and Kamala Harris would be a disaster for America. We need a president who will hold our enemies to account, secure our border, cut our debt, and get our economy back on track. I encourage my delegates to support Donald Trump next week in Milwaukee.” — Nikki Haley

ONE GOOD CHART

The joke goes that weathermen and political reporters are always wrong and still manage to keep their jobs. Well, not if you live in South Florida! The weather is accurately predictable up to a week out, according to this amazing map from Flowing Data.

SONG OF THE DAY

I have been listening the heck out of the new album by Sierra Farrell “Trail of Flowers.” I guess it’s technically country music but I just think she has great lyrics and even better melodies. This is “American Dreaming.”

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