Chris Crucial: How many swing states are there *really*?

PLUS: Tim Scott sets a wedding date!

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1. What’s a swing state?: In a recent memo from Joe Biden’s campaign, the top brass insisted that they are looking hard at “expanding the map in places like Florida and Texas.”

That claim comes hard on the heels of Donald Trump insisting that he would run aggressive campaigns in states like New York, New Jersey and New Mexico.

Which got me to thinking: How many states, really, fit the bill as swing states heading into the November race between Trump and Biden?

The answer is, well, less than you probably think.

The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, a nonpartisan handicapping site, says just 6 states are currently toss ups: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (That’s a total of 77 electoral votes.)

Inside Elections with Nathan Gonzales, another handicapping site, has 5 states as true swings: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. (That’s 71 electoral votes.)

The Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia has an even narrower list of swing states: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and Wisconsin. (That’s 43 electoral votes.)

You will notice — keen observers that you are — that Florida, Texas, New York, New Jersey and New Mexico, um, don’t appear on ANY of those lists.

Which is because NONE of them are swing states — or are going to become swing states.

The trio of states where Trump says he is going to expand the map are easier to dismiss. Joe Biden won New York by 23 points in 2020. He won New Jersey by 16 points. He won New Mexico by 10, which makes it the most potentially competitive of the three. But a Republican presidential candidate hasn’t carried the Land of Enchantment since 2004 — and it ain’t happening in 2024.

The Biden map-expansion states are more plausible. Trump beat Biden by only 3 points in Florida and by 6 points in Texas in 2020. Which is pretty close!

The problem in both states is that while Democrats can come close to winning statewide races, they rarely actually win them.

Barack Obama was the last Democrat to carry Florida. (He won it in 2008 and 2012.) The state has two Republican Senators and a Republican governor you may have heard of.

Texas is even more dire for Democrats. Jimmy Carter was the last Democratic presidential candidate to win the state — in 1976. The state has two Republican Senators and a Republican governor.

There’s also another problem with the Biden campaign making a real effort in Florida and Texas. Let me sum it up this way:

Thanks, Kim! Florida and Texas are HUGE states (analysis!). And they have a number of very expensive media markets in them. Which means to make a real run at either one would cost, easily, tens of millions in campaign ads alone.

While the Biden campaign is going to be plenty well financed (and probably significantly better financed than Trump’s effort), dumping, say, $50 million into Texas is probably not the best use of their cash.

So, beyond the 4-6 swing states that everyone agrees are going to be competitive in November where else could you look?

If I could pick one state to keep an eye on it would North Carolina. Trump won the state by a point in 2020 — less than 100,000 votes out of more than 5 million cast — and the state has shown a willingness to elect Democrats at the statewide level in the recent past.

But, honestly, beyond that I don’t see much that’s competitive out there. Which means that just 7(ish) states will decide who the next president is.

2. VP Wedding Bells!: South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott is going to get married shortly before the fall general election sprint, the Washington Post reported Thursday.

Scott, who at 58 years old has never been married before, got engaged to Mindy Noce in January — shortly before the New Hampshire primary. (The two had reportedly been dating for a year.)

During his time as a 2024 presidential candidate, Scott was secretive about his romantic life — allowing only that he was “dating a lovely Christian girl.” Which, of course, led to rumors about his sexuality.

Donald Trump himself seemed to hint about the controversy surrounding Scott’s personal life. Said Trump at a rally in New Hampshire in January:

“Today it was a big story — the biggest story out there. He’s engaged to be married. We never thought this was going to happen. What’s going on?”

Scott’s decision to get engaged — and married! — in 2024 may not be driven primarily by political concerns. But, there’s NO question that being married will help his political prospects.

Know who the last unmarried vice president was? I bet you don’t! (Which is sort of the point!) It was Charles Curtis, who was Herbert Hoover’s VP from 1929-1933.

While few Americans will publicly admit they want their politicians to be married, there’s no doubt that many do. And that Scott’s marriage — especially pre-Labor Day! — will be seen as a sign of him trying to sew up Trump’s vice presidential slot.

In my latest rankings of Trump’s possible VP picks, Scott takes the #1 slot.

3. Chris Christie (No Labels)?: Has No Labels finally found a prominent candidate to lead their national ticket this fall? Maybe!

“You know, I think the way I would look at it is: I will do whatever I can to try to make sure that the country doesn’t go through the misery of a second Trump term,” former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie told David Axelrod on Thursday when asked about a No Labels run.

“I wouldn’t preclude anything at this point, David,” Christie added. “We’ve got the most unsettled political terrain we’ve ever had.”

Christie’s flirtation is likely welcome news for No Labels, which has struggled to convince any candidates to run on their banner. (Former Georgia Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan was the latest to remove himself from consideration.)

No Labels has confirmed in recent weeks that it will go ahead with its efforts to field a third party ticket, believing that such a ticket can win 270 electoral votes.

Which, well, VERY questionable. I have written of late that I don’t get the logic behind the No Labels ticket. (I argue the VERY likely outcome would be to make it more likely Trump wins.)

That said, Christie at the top of the No Labels ticket would be, at a minimum, intriguing. He’s very well known nationally — and has staked out space as one of the most high-profile faces of the anti-Trump movement within the GOP.

NOTABLE QUOTABLE

“There have been five national polls where we’re actually leading again in the polls. The truth is I’m not sure it matters because it’s so hard to do a poll these days.” -- Joe Biden, still getting polls wrong

ONE GOOD CHART

Life expectancy is on the rise over the past three decades! But that doesn’t tell the whole story, according to this chart from Matt Yglesias. People with four-year college degrees are living FAR longer. But people without four-year degrees have actually seen a decline in life expectancy over the last decade or so.

SONG OF THE DAY

On this day in 1988, The Pixies released their first album “Surfer Rosa.” It contained the masterpiece “Where is My Mind?”. (Fun fact: In college, I fronted a Pixies cover band — and “Where is My Mind?” was our go-to song!)