Judgment Day🧑‍⚖️

Today is a HUGE day for Donald Trump’s two most controversial Cabinet picks.

This morning, the Senate Finance Committee will vote on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.’s nomination to be the Secretary of Health and Human Services.

This afternoon, the Senate Intelligence Committee will vote on Tulsi Gabbard’s nomination to be the Director of National Intelligence.

Here’s what you need to know:

• On both committees, Republicans hold a one-seat majority

• A tie vote — meaning one GOP Senator votes “no” — likely (but not certainly) dooms the chances of Gabbard or RFK Jr. getting a full floor vote. Meaning they would not be confirmed.

So a) the stakes are high and b) the margin for error for Republicans is TINY.

(Sidebar: I do not expect any Democrat to vote for either RFK Jr. or Gabbard.)

Here’s the key GOP senator to watch in each of these votes:

• RFK JR: Bill Cassidy of Louisiana. Cassidy is a medical doctor and a vaccine supporter. (Can’t believe I have to write that but here we are.) Cassidy is also someone who hasn’t gone full MAGA; he voted to impeach Trump following January 6, 2021. But Cassidy is up for reelection in 2026 and there’s already lots of talk about him facing a serious primary challenge. A vote today to doom RFK Jr. would virtually ensure a Trump-backed candidate in that race.

• Gabbard: Todd Young of Indiana. Quietly, Young has cut a figure of someone who won’t blindly follow Trump’s orders. Young wouldn’t reveal who he voted for in the 2024 election and while he doesn’t go out of his way to antagonize the MAGA forces, it’s clear he isn’t one of their ranks. During the confirmation hearing, Young repeatedly asked Gabbard about her effort in Congress to pardon Edward Snowden — and didn’t seem pleased with her responses.

These votes are very important tests of just how loyal (or scared) Senate Republicans are of Trump. Stay tuned.

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