Happy debate day!
At 9 pm eastern tonight, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris will meet, in person, for the first time — amazing! — when they take the stage in Philadelphia.
I will be live-chatting — via the Substack app — with paid subscribers during the debate. If you aren’t a paying subscriber yet, make today the day!
Right after the debate, my friend Gabe Fleisher and I will be doing a live chat on Substack — with our first impressions of what we just saw. You can RSVP for that chat here:
In the meantime, I wanted to provide you a little food for thought. And it goes like this: The debate is likely to be decided more by, well, vibes than any specific policy position.
I know that 3 in 10 voters in the New York Times/Siena poll say they need to learn more about Harris — and the vast majority of those folks say they want to know more about her policies and plans.
That’s what people say they want. But, if past is prologue, the debate will be defined more by personality than by policy.
What do you remember about the 2000 presidential debates? A policy George W. Bush or Al Gore took? Or the sigh?
How about in 1992 when George H.W. Bush checked his watch during the townhall debate with Bill Clinton?
Remember the first 2012 debate? It wasn’t any one moment or a policy position that people latched onto. It was Barack Obama’s seeming diffidence (some said arrogance).
Or the second 2016 presidential debate where Trump sought to loom over Hillary Clinton?
My point is this: These presidential debates typically turn far less on policy fights than they do on how the candidates look, talk and handle themselves.
Which can be frustrating. Because what it means to look “presidential” — especially with a historic candidate like Kamala Harris, who is running to be the first black woman ever to occupy the Oval Office — is deeply subjective.
But, at root, it’s VERY important to remember that these debates are performances. They are watched by tens of millions of people on TV. And the candidate who better grasps that reality usually wins.
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