North Carolina Lt. Gov Mark Robinson did NOT drop his candidacy — amid a series of salacious allegations — on Thursday night.
Which means that he will be the Republican nominee for governor in November. Which is an electoral disaster for the GOP — and could matter in the presidential race.
Start here: Robinson, even before these latest allegations, was likely going to lose this race. He has long been a controversial figure — popular within the Republican base but without any significant appeal in the ideological middle of the electorate. Polling has shown state Attorney General Josh Stein leading the race.
What’s changed? Robinson is likely headed to a significant loss near the top of the ticket. And the bigger he loses, the more of a problem it is for Donald Trump’s efforts to carry the state.
Consider the recent results in North Carolina at the presidential level:
2008
Obama 49.7%
McCain 49.4%
2012
Romney 50.4%
Obama 48.4%
2016
Trump 49.8%
Clinton 46.2%
2020
Trump 49.9%
Biden 48.6%
Pretty damn close! And consistently close!
In that last race, Trump’s margin was less than 75,000 votes out of more than 5 million cast.
When you have such slim margins, ANYTHING can matter. And the implosion of your party’s nominee for governor definitely fits the bill.
The reality of the electoral map is that if Kamala Harris wins North Carolina, she is very, very likely to be the next president. And Mark Robinson might help her do just that.
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Trump seems to be losing this election on his own. But the existence of Mark Robinson may be proof that the almighty is watching and having fun with it too.
Trump losing because a guy boasted about being a Black Nazi and enjoying transgender porn would be a perfect summation of the last nine years.
the main benefit: may not swing some votes from R to D, but may likely depress R turnout. Even a few thousand matters
Absolutely true.
Ironic how porn seems to have impacted both Trump AND Robinson. So much for "traditional values."
To paraphrase: Strange how pornography has had such an impact on their lives. Such sweet irony!
Are you thinking of the Clarence Thomas confirmation hearings? I am.
Robinson certainly he is. He used the "high tech lynching" quote.
If Mark Robinson wasn't a real person, I'd think this was bad fiction.
I agree with Chris that Mark Robinson will have some impact on the NC presidential race. However, I suspect it will be because even more people are disgusted with Trump. Trump has been effusive in his praise of Robinson. Trump can't say enough good things about Robinson. Gee, if I was planning to vote for Trump and learned Trump had said all these nice things about a candidate with reprehensible tastes and views, maybe (and it's just "maybe" with Trump supporters) I might change my voting plans. As always, just sayin'....................
Trump literally called Robinson "Martin Luther King on steroids."
And Robinson wasn’t thrilled because he is no fan of MLK!😂 You can not make this stuff up!
🤢
Yes, well, as a transplant from NJ I think Trump’s attraction to Robinson is his way of thinking he can secure the “black vote” down here. Trump says things designed to flatter Robinson so that Robinson will encourage folks to vote Trump.
IMHO, neither one of them is a good choice for North Carolina or for the country!
This is a good time to remind everyone it to be distracted by the latest outrage. Donald Trump is dangerously unqualified and his plans if he wins for retribution, mass deportations, Project 2025 are what we need to focus on. Let’s keep the focus on keeping all of us safe.
If I were a Republican it might be too much of a stretch to vote for a Democrat but I would be too ashamed to vote for Donald Trump. I would just not vote this year.
Chris, you are a national treasure. I wish every American could read your analysis. It transcends but almost everybody else is saying and is always spot on, even if I don't always agree with you. Nice work and I am so glad I am a subscriber.
Thanks much!
Robinson really needs to go back under that ugly rock he came out of. No insult to rocks.
NC resident here - we have a long history of democratic governors while still falling for the republican prez nominee. Hopeful Kamala can recapture Obamas first run magic, but not entirely convinced. But I will say the state republican party has never put up a nominee THIS bad before. At the same time, Robinsons record of utterly disqualifying statements was public record before this story - now there’s just, err, more
What's gonna be extra not-so-hilarious is when Robinson loses by 14 points and then claims the election was rigged, or Republicans mess around with certifying the election. I'm also predicting here first that Harris wins NC by 3 points. Maybe 4.
Oh I hope so!! Would love to see my state, NC, in the news for something good - helping tilt the election to Harris.
So how does the governor race percentage in those years relate to the presidential race? Any correlation?
Great question
Robinson is a perfect example that hypocrisy and arrogance will burn you down every time!
Great analysis Chris. Worth the subscription for this one alone!
He sure could! Consider Trump winning PA and GA and losing NC.
Mr. Cilliza: Speaking of this week and porn, any thoughts on the Sunday assassination attempt on trump and his wife, Melania, putting out a video defending her “nude modeling” career ( that also included porn videos) and promoting her new book. Just seems completely tone deaf timing of a spouse of an assassination attempt victim to focus on her book and nude photos less than 3 days after the attempt. What say you?
You mean from the First Lady who wore a jacket with the words "I don't care, do you?" to the border? No, not at all tone deaf.
Thanks for a correct assessment. Imo