North Carolina Lt. Gov Mark Robinson did NOT drop his candidacy — amid a series of salacious allegations — on Thursday night.
Which means that he will be the Republican nominee for governor in November. Which is an electoral disaster for the GOP — and could matter in the presidential race.
Start here: Robinson, even before these latest allegations, was likely going to lose this race. He has long been a controversial figure — popular within the Republican base but without any significant appeal in the ideological middle of the electorate. Polling has shown state Attorney General Josh Stein leading the race.
What’s changed? Robinson is likely headed to a significant loss near the top of the ticket. And the bigger he loses, the more of a problem it is for Donald Trump’s efforts to carry the state.
Consider the recent results in North Carolina at the presidential level:
2008
Obama 49.7%
McCain 49.4%
2012
Romney 50.4%
Obama 48.4%
2016
Trump 49.8%
Clinton 46.2%
2020
Trump 49.9%
Biden 48.6%
Pretty damn close! And consistently close!
In that last race, Trump’s margin was less than 75,000 votes out of more than 5 million cast.
When you have such slim margins, ANYTHING can matter. And the implosion of your party’s nominee for governor definitely fits the bill.
The reality of the electoral map is that if Kamala Harris wins North Carolina, she is very, very likely to be the next president. And Mark Robinson might help her do just that.
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The Morning: Could Mark Robinson decide the presidency?