My friend Jonathan Martin wrote a provocative column in Politico today in which he notes that lots and lots of establishment Republicans believe that the best way for the GOP to get back to its conservative roots is for Donald Trump to lose the election this fall.
Jmart writes:
For most Republicans who’ve not converted to the Church of MAGA, this scenario is barely even provocative. In fact, asking around with Republicans last week, the most fervent private debate I came across in the party was how best to accelerate Trump’s exit to the 19th Hole.
One high-level Republican, conceding it may only be “wishful thinking,” even floated the idea of a Harris victory followed by Biden pardons of both his son, Hunter, and Trump. That would take the issue of both cases off Harris’ plate and, more to the point, drain the energy behind Trump’s persecution complex so that Republicans can get on with the business of winning elections.
Wishful thinking indeed!!!
That will NEVER work. For two big reasons:
1. Donald Trump isn’t going anywhere. If he loses in the fall, there’s a 0% chance that he will concede. Trump has already said that the only way he can lose this election is if Democrats cheat him out of it. Do you think he is suddenly going to have an election night conversion and admit he lost fair and square?
NO CHANCE! I have said it before and I will say it again here: Donald Trump will be the de facto leader (or just the plain leader) of the Republican party until he dies. Period.
2. The base of the party doesn’t have any interest in a return to the past. The smartest quote in the Politico piece comes from longtime GOP strategist Terry Sullivan: “You’re assuming Republicans have a top of the ticket problem and not a voter base problem. It’s not like our leaders have been leading the voters to the wilderness against the voters’ judgment.”
Correct. There is zero interest among the party base to abandon the national populism of Trump. The idea that, if Trump lost in November, there would be a grassroots movement to return to the internationalist approach to trade and foreign policy and the debt and deficit reduction focus at home is laughable. The party is all about sticking it to the man and giving the finger to the media these days. And the base seems to like it just fine thank you.
It amazes me that almost a decade into Donald Trump there are still Republicans out there who think that somehow this is a blip, an anomaly — that all they need is one more election and then everything is going to go back to “normal.”
THIS is normal now for the Republican party. And will be until Trump dies — and possibly much longer than that.
I explore all of that in today’s edition of The Morning.
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GOP is stuck with Trump and they will continue to lose National elections because Trump is the most disliked Politician in the country now. The MAGA crowd cannot put Trump in the White House, thank God for that
Agree. You’re missing that if he loses he’s still incentivized to continue running for president. His 2028 campaign will begin immediately.
Very true. I mention it in the vid -- he wants to remain relevant for as long as possible. And the best way to do that is to keep running.
I wonder if those like DeSantis and Haley would try running against him again in '28 or if they would just wait for him to die before ever running again.
It is not ‘normal’ to bypass a democratic process to install a candidate.
Don't disagree. But that's not at all what we are talking about here.
Actually, it is at the heart of the matter because it serves as a helpful benchmark to compare and contrast your definition of normalcy.
Normal is a peaceful transfer of power. Which used to be the highlight and world respected and envied jewel of the US...until Jan 6 2021
Pushing a 6 January narrative that does not correlate to any charges truly hurts democracy. Revising the factual basis is not the sign of a democracy.
Then stop trying to revise the facts!
The first time the US failed to have a peaceful transfer of power was Jan 2021. Fact
It's not "normal" to try and illegally overturn the results of the democratic process of a free and fair election, and illegally install the loser.
No one installed a candidate, it was done thru the pre-approved rules of the party and the chosen delegates were free to vote for whoever they wished, and they chose the candidate, all in accordance with the rules.
Move on already, no one on earth believes maga cares one bit about voters deciding elections.
Having Nancy Pelosi say publicly that “she did what she had to do” in relation to Biden stepping down is not really democratic. What exactly did she “do?” Did she threaten a sitting president? Did she threaten the nominee? How exactly is this part of the “rules?” One votes…then George Clooney swoops in and removes the nominee?
She shared evidence and her expertise that he couldn't win and would cause many others in the party to lose. He listened.
Sounds like the Godfather
Sounds like how normal successful executives make decisions.
One cannot “threaten” an elected official and a sitting President.
one cannot have a meaningful conversation by isolating a single word and ignoring all context. you clearly have a narrative in your head that you want to believe. Enjoy your fantasy. Hopefully it brings you comfort.
What dud she do? She used her First Amendmemt Rights and spoke publicly. Oh, the horror!
The rules are about the delegates voting, which is how the Dems select a presidential noninee, and have absolutely nothing to do with Nancy Pelosi speaking in public.
Clooney used his First Anendment Rights also. And did not remove anyone. Stop being ridiculous.
Yes. Two civilians just speaking their mind. No backroom dealings!
Reality just is one big conspiracy to you, isn't it. Poor you
Conspiracy usually involves a secret plan. In this case, an elected nominee was publicly removed by the party elites. What is still “secret” is what was said. History will eventually reveal the truth. Constitutionally, Pelosi can go on Sunday morning talk shows to describe how she made a sitting President and elected nominee step aside with no repercussions while citizens are not afforded this equal protection under the law.
Pu leeze!
First, he was not removed, he is still President.
Second, no one made him dicide to drop out of the campaign, and no one could force him to drop out of the campaign. He made the decision on his own after listening to advisors, friends, and family.
He made a difficult and SELFLESS decision. I know that is confusing to you maga, someone doing the thing that is right for the country as opposed to what he personally wanted to do, but that is what mature and responsible and patriotic people do.
You need to get over this and just move on.
And BTW, citizens do have a Fisrt Anendment Right, the same as Nancy Pelosi has. Just stop being ridiculous.
Pelosi did not force President Biden out of the campaign, stop the ridiculousness ,
Pelosi's own recollection is different than yours!
That is not what the DNC rules actually state. It is both hilarious and sad that you saying delegates can vote for whomever they want while crying about January 6th.
Jan 6 was an attempt to STOP the legitamit CERTIFICATION of the election results, and had ZERO to do with delegates chosing who to vote for.
The US Constitution says on Jan 6 Congress must, without postponement or delay, CERTIFY the electoral college vote, period.
The DNC rules provide for delegates to vote for a replacement candidate, if the need arises before the convention and after the primaries. Those rules give the delegates the choice to vote for who ever they choose... and they did just that.
Just stop with the gaslighting
It’s not normal for an 82 year old person to run for president. It’s also not normal for a 78 year old to run either. There’s higher risk of abnormalities to happen when running at that age. For example you might exit the race less than a month before your convention and your running mate might need to take over.
Everyone knew Biden was both old and incapacitated. The Democratic party, supported by the media, tried to hide it until they couldn’t.
Stop being ridiculous. Got proof of any "incapacity?" No!
To you, reality is a conspiracy, lol!!
President Biden didn't know that. He believed he could run and win. He was the leader of the party and the incumbent president, making the decision his alone. "Everyone" doesn't make the decision for whether a candidate stays in a race or not. The candidate does.
Two men of extraordinary age were leading their political parties. When faced with the harsh reality of his age, one man chose to give up power and the other is clutching tighter than ever.
This does not fit reality
You're alone in your fantasy.
Nahhh it was actually a public discussion including this substack on how Biden fooled everyone
It is not normal now. It used to be standard operating procedure. Until 1968! Not so long ago.
And I wish people who say she was "installed" note that no one—not even the guy from Minnesota—stepped in to challenge her. You can't run against no one!
It’s worth looking at how cults end to try to predict the future of the Republican Party. The cult leader doesn’t just retire or assume a normal life. The followers don’t just stop believing in the leader because others reject them.
I believe the Republican Party will have to officially reject Trump with some kind of rules changes or laws that make it impossible for him to run again as a Republican. Maybe they use his convictions?
If they are not able to do this the non-maga faction will have to join the Democratic Party or start a third party.
Unfortunately, I agree.
He's 78 and can only be around for so many more years. Some people keep going strong into their 90s, but that's the exception and not the rule. We saw what happened to Biden between 78 and 82. If we posit that he's not going anywhere until he dies, the more interesting question is what happens after he dies (or becomes too old/ill to function as a public figure). However enduring Trumpism might be with Trump around, no other GOP politicians have successfully integrated it into their own brands. Meatball Ron, Vance, Don Jr., Vivek, Hawley, Lake, Noem... none of them can come close to matching his particular style and magic. There's something sui generis about Trump and I'm not sure it can outlast him.
He’s an alleged billionaire and barring any deep sea metal tube rides or sailing yacht catastrophes, they tend to live a lot longer than the rest of us. This menace to our society could be around for another 20 years!!
Yes, but *most* billionaires have better taste and don’t gorge on McDonald’s or think that reasonable exercise “saps your limited life source”, hence the reason *they* live longer!
I don't think you are wrong, as much as I wish you were. But what deeply concerns me about this is hat it says about the American populace. I have said for a long time that what Trump did was take the limits off what is "acceptable." Trump has said out loud what was previously only hidden. Now every sort of foul, course, racist, sexist language is OK. I am not sure the Republican party past or present wants to take that on!
And as a pastor, I ant to suggest this is less a political problem as much as a spiritual one.
I agree, although I think those limits had already been severely weakened by the internet and social media. Trump just showed up on the political scene at exactly the right time to take advantage.
If Donald J Trump wins in November, or takes the Oval Office by force,there won’t be a 2028 election. You’ll have 4 years of Papa Trump(if he stays alive, given his obvious physical and mental decline) followed by Baby Trump(maybe DJTJ or Vance, or another young fascist). Republicans other than Trumpists have abandoned their Party to Trump…and if they wish to have any home of resurrecting an actual conservative Party, their best bet is to strongly support Harris in this election and to speak out loudly against attempts by Trump and his goons to claim a victory if they don’t win it fairly. The time for back-room grumbling and Lindsey Grahamish sideways attempts to check Trump’s behavior have failed, and will continue to fail.
I think it is just as delusional to believe that if Trump wins in November, he’ll just go away after his second term expires in 4 years. He’ll continue to pull the strings of power within the GOP because that’s what is good for him and his brand. Furthermore, it should not surprise anyone if his followers pursue a repeal of the 22nd Amendment so he never has to leave The White House again. Trump is not going to go away, ever, until Nature claims him.
I would disagree. A move away from Trumpism and a return to the past are different things. No, the Republican Party will not all of a sudden become Ronald Reagan's party again but political loyalties run shallow and parties exist to win elections. The party has largely transformed into a populist construct and a cult of personality but when politicians see a better chance to win somewhere else they will jump ship. If that means a new conservative party or just a fundamental shift in the GOP remains to be seen. Peronism is the exception not the rule.
Seriously?
I agree with you. Trump is going nowhere, other than possibly jail.
Agreed that the same with MAGA, they are going nowhere as well.
Sadly, the GOP is stuck with both and they are going to have to figure out how to deal with this.
My advice is that the GOP traditionalists are going to have to form a new party if they want to be relevant again. Maybe Liz Cheney and Adam Kinzinger can provide some guidance.
I worry the most about what happens if Trump loses.
Couldn't these people form a third party called the Conservative Party or something like that? I've been trying to convince an anti-Trump Haley-supporter friend of mine of that.
I totally disagree, Chris. If he loses he’s going to prison. There’s no bouncing back from that. One of these cases is going to result in jail time.
Oooh I forgot about that possibility. Sentencing is coming up this month!
Trump is a unique individual - no one else will be able to try to be like Trump and unify all of the followers. Look at how JD Vance is polarizing to the Republican base, even though he is simply acting like Trump. Jordon, Comer, Gaetz, MTG - each of them only excite a small portion of the Trump faction. When Trump is gone, the MAGA base will fracture, however, will still dominate. For “traditional” republicans, their only option will be to create a third party - waiting for Trumpism to go away is a fool’s errand.
Yes and in John Dean's book Authoritarian Nightmare he writes that this palybook will not go away when Trump goes away... someone else will take his place. So the battleground states will decide our future for the foreseeable future no matter what we do. It's discouraging and heartbreaking. I'm sick of my country ...
I am more sick for
on the bright side, if the future for them is JD Vance or Josh Hawley or Don Jr., well, that doesn't bode well.
On the bright side this may be true but remember JD and Josh got themselves into the Senate.. I am usually not this pessimistic ..but what upsets me is the "people " the "voters" if they continue to want this they will mold them into what they want ... The GOP are no longer leaders they are power hungry followers. There are many maga people down here in Florida ..I'm a NYC girl...What I see is all the stuff he does is excused and blamed on someone else.. They have a guy who has been convicted of 34 felonies and more but it's ok with them because the fake media is doing this to "HIM" and the dems are doing it .. For today I don't have a lot of hope... but I am wishing and hoping Kamala gets in ... as I had desperately wanted Hillary to get in ...Thank God Joe stepped aside ...
It will be a Trump family member—Don or Ivanka. If he wins in 24, they'll spend four years setting that up, and fixing it so they can't lose. (Trump Sr. may also get a new, eligible spouse!) I wouldn't even bet against them finding a way around the 22nd Amendment. Bloomberg did it in NYC.
The future indeed doesn't bode well, but not for the GOP, but the USA.
Four years ago I would have agreed. I don't anymore. Trump is sui generis. A lot of smart and/or charismatic GOP politicians have tried to copy Trumpism and none of them has made it work.
Move
"Move" is that my country love it or leave it?
It’s even worse for the supposed sane GOP leaders like Brian Kemp, Spencer Cox, Chris Sununu, and others, that are making nice with hopes they will be at the table when he expires. Trump has actually positioned RFKJr and Tulsi Gabbard to assume leadership the crazy wing. Can’t tell if that’s 40% or 60% of Trump voters. But there will be no chairs at the table for these supposed normie GOP leaders.
If there's one thing that society devalues, it's old age. Ask Biden. As Trump continues to age, he will become less relevant. He will become more laughable with every passing year. Even if he's still alive ten years from now, how much power and attention will he command at 88?
The current nihilist nationalistic MAGA movement has its historical roots in Nixon Southern strategy of social grievance in reaction to the civil rights movement of the sixties. It was groomed through years by multiple GOP candidates through dog whistles and insider meme's, whilst the GOP elite focused on internationalism, small government, and taxes.
With Obama's historic 2008 win, the grassroots became completely reactionary and started to dominate the post Bush elites and actually elect like-minded representatives, as expressed by the Tea Party/Freedom Caucus movement. Trump is but the logical outcome of this process, with his only unique ability to express loudly on the national stage what was heretofore only expressed in whispers.
MAGA is not going away, the real danger post-Trump is the movement will find a new leader that will have the political skills to match the hyperbolic rhetoric.
Off the subject but I just have to ask. What do you think of Trump’s sudden making nice with Gov. Kemp? Did someone point out that if he is convicted in Georgia that Kemp is the only one that can pardon him,?
I’ve been wondering for years why the never-Trump arm of the party hasn’t broken off and created a 3rd party. I know it’s expensive and there been no real 3rd party success previously but these aren’t exactly normal times either.
“It’s not like our leaders have been leading the voters to the wilderness against the voters’ judgment.”
Exactly. I find it very frustrating when the left insists that the GOP base are all idiots that have no idea where they’re going. They know where they’re going. Will they want a refund when they get there? Possibly!
Excellent analysis by Chris.
Trump has not had an original idea in his life. He has always been a follower and never a leader.
The MAGA rhetoric, mindset, meanness, racism, misogyny and over the top demagoguery has been around for 25+ years before Trump slithered on the scene as birthed by Newt Gingrich and Rush Limbaugh.
The anti-immigration and white supremacy “culture war” was instigated and ignited by Pat Buchanan who used the actual words “cultural war” in his divisive 1992 RNC speech after his failed campaign that doomed the incumbent (serious challenges to an incumbent always ends badly for the incumbent) G.H.W Bush reelection with these words….
“My friends, this election is about more than who gets what. It is about who we are. It is about what we believe, and what we stand for as Americans. There is a religious war going on in this country. It is a cultural war, as critical to the kind of nation we shall be as was the Cold War itself, for this war is for the soul of America. And in that struggle for the soul of America, Clinton & Clinton are on the other side, and George Bush is on our side. And so, to the Buchanan Brigades out there, we have to come home and stand beside George Bush.”
In the late 90’s I stared posting on my first online forum. I stumbled upon it going down one of those rabbit holes that happen online.
It was far-FAR right wing. A short time after Bill Clinton’s re-election (and failed impeachment) it was fun to troll these lunatics as I took the name of their favorite insult to anyone they deemed not not sufficiently in their fox hole…Clintonista.
It drove them mad with rage.
Almost exactly the same vitriol coming from Trump was written by these people. Their disgust with the Republican party and their perceived weakness, was almost as strong as their hatred for Democrats and “libruls”.
They were all disciples of Rush Limbaugh and reveled in their devotion to his every utterance, calling themselves “Dittoheads” to signal their devotion and agreement with every racist, sexist, demagogic shrillness of Rush, as they (unaware of the hypocrisy) derided anyone outside their clique “sheeple”.
After Clinton won the 1992 election, Rush started each and every 5 day-a-week hate fest broadcast with this…..”Day (fill in the number of days since Clinton’s inauguration) of America held hostage”
Rush blamed “liberals” and Democrats for every ill everywhere. Calling them “evil” and likening liberalism to having a disease.
NOTHING that comes out of Trump’s mouth is anything new. His MAGA Cult was weaned on this stuff. All Trump did was make it his own, and say it out loud….just like the Dittoheads and the wing nuts I interacted with In that forum were BEGGING the Republican Party to embrace, while they preyed for the old GOP’s demise.
They finally got their wish and savior in Donald Trump.
So, yeah…Chris is spot on when he says that “There is zero interest among the party base to abandon the national populism of Trump.”
Although it may be more accurate to opine that “There is zero interest among the party base to abandon the national populism of Rush Limbaugh and Pat Buchanan” Rush the father of MAGA, Buchanan the midwife.
I agree with nearly everything you said. Trump is unlikely to go away, and Trumpism is even more unlikely to go away for the reasons you gave. I think the only way to get rid of Trump is a landslide election victory for Democrats up and down the ballot. Then maybe the party establishment and base will unite over the realization that Trump can’t win. But a landslide victory is unlikely.
But Trumpism (or right wing populism) is now baked into the Republican Party, and I think that will remain in a post-Trump world. There’ll be no shortage of Republican politicians who will try to become MAGA’s new figurehead and campaign and govern like Trump. There needs to be several election cycles of defeat before that turns around.
I disagree. IF Trump loses, he will rant and rave and some of his followers will try to overturn the result. They will fail. Our political and structural institutions (including the Supreme Court) are strong enough to resist any attempt to overturn the result of a free and fair election. Trump will continue as the nominal head of the GOP, but at that point he will be a two time loser - his brand is based on winning - and too old to be a significant force in 2028. The populist right wing will still be there as it has been throughout American history. But those folks usually don't turn out to vote unless they are inspired by a charismatic leader like Trump or George Wallace. Yes, that toxic strain of American politics will be back, but probably not in 2028.
Congratulations on the empty house my friend! I miss those days! 🥰
You have exactly captured our "pipe dream". Sadly.
Having read the piece, I think this is a great idea, not just for the GOP, but for the country:
One high-level Republican, conceding it may only be “wishful thinking,” even floated the idea of a Harris victory followed by Biden pardons of both his son, Hunter, and Trump. That would take the issue of both cases off Harris’ plate and, more to the point, drain the energy behind Trump’s persecution complex so that Republicans can get on with the business of winning elections.
Except that the president has no power to issue pardons in the NY or Georgia cases as they are not federal.
True, but he's not going to jail in the NYC case. The Georgia case could sputter out if he doesn't pull the same antics in 24 as he did in 2020, which means it probably won't. And there's a GOP governor there, so that's an easy way to score points.
Apparently the Georgia governor doesn't have the authority to issue pardons. It's a more involved process that only starts after a conviction.
As for the NY case, not likely, but we'll see what happens at sentencing. The fact that he has shown ZERO remorse and, in fact, continues in his lawbreaking could be a factor.
I stand corrected! I have no doubt if he wasn't who he is he would go to jail. Then again, he also probably wouldn't have been charged, either.
I just heard a podcast with Jeff Roe and he said that, if Trump is sent to jail, the election's over (meaning Trump will win). While I don't think anyone can predict the future like that, given how fraught all this is, and the imposition it will put on the Secret Service, I just don't see it. I hope not; it will make the inevitable unrest if Trump loses even harsher.
The thing with authoritarians (or would-be, in Trump's case) is they tend not to go away. It took Italy decades to get rid of Berlusconi, still the closest Trump analog. And look at Israel and Netanyahu! So even if Trump loses this time (and throws the standard fit), he can still run again in 28, or if have his son run in 28. And if he wins, he can get his son to run. Sounds stupid and farfetched? Yes. But then again, the whole idea of running a game show host for President is insane, and this where we are. Sadly, he can't run his wife, because of the birth thing, but there's still time for him to dump her and get a new one.
I do see the GOP going in a more populist direction as far as unions, etc., and that's good. For instance, J.D. Vance said his ticket was the "most pro-union Republican ticket ever." Which may be true. But that's a low bar.
The old line GOP-ers that Martin quotes have done very little for its voters (and are, as usual, anonymous cowards), and it's possible that some of the smarter more populist GOP-ers could lead in a better direction. I think a lot depends on if the Democrats are able to stop becoming more of the party of educated coastal elites, which is what they're rapidly turning into.
Behold! One quibble. If Trump has a debilitating stroke or some other substantial permanent physical or mental malady, the base will probably abandon him, since they don't want a disabled person leading their party
Fetterman had a pretty bad stroke and was still elected.
Trump voters are the most forgiving people on the planet. (Though, sadly, their forgiveness only extends to one person.) I've voted for some pretty flawed people, but we all have limits. They have none.
Really? A few years ago you could have argued they would never want a convicted felon leading their party, and look what happened.
Completely agree. The best way to look at this is not Republicans versus Democrats though. It’s one sectarian group versus another. The Federal Government takes funding from some states to help fund others. That will end. The Federal Government will end. Regardless of who wins.
What if Trump loses and dies before 2028? Then, does a Trump disciple run or does the party try to get an establishment candidate as the nominee? If, as you say, the base doesn’t want an establishment candidate, will the GOP ever be rid of “Trump?”
Laughable = VP Harris using her Foghorn Leghorn dialect in Detroit! He he he ……
I hate even replying to you, but the English teacher inside compels me to suggest that you learn what “code switching” is. We all do it, at least those of us who are skilled at verbal communication.
Like HRC and the salsa in the purse, yeah i get it. a losing proposition.
Mitt Romney grocery shopping, yeah fake stuff
HRC riding the subway. He he he
VP Harris talking like Foghorn Leghorn.
Folks all see through this “code switching” that’s why President Trump has such a loyal following. He’s authentic.
I think that deserves an “A+” in today’s English class! 😎
Indeed, Trump, and I've seen many people like this, is outspoken and honest about other people's faults, but defensive and blatantly dishonest about his own. That gets him the reputation for "telling it like it is" when almost everything he says is self-serving.
His dealings with evangelicals are transparently phony. Someone needs to revive Ted Kennedy's line against Mitt Romney: "he's not pro-choice. He's not anti-choice. He's multiple choice."
If Trump is an authentic anything, he's an authentic con man, but that's not really a thing.
💯
Tell me you don’t know what code switching is without telling me that you don’t know what it is.
Authentic? That is hilarious. He may be the least authentic person on the planet.